Monday, November 30, 2015

Week 13 Recap: Upsetting Friday, Unsurprising Saturday

Your Top 25:

[Tom Pennington-Getty Images]

Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
SD
1
+2
Oklahoma
62.4
27.8

Oklahoma ran over Oklahoma State--Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon each had over 100 yards rushing and two TDs--winning the Big XII title, securing a spot in the Playoff, and taking the #1 spot here.

2
0
Alabama
61.1
16.9

Bama won the Iron Bowl 29-13, clinching the SEC West. Derrick Henry had the best day of his collegiate career, running for a whopping 271 yards.

3
-2
Clemson
60.6
23.2

Clemson struggled at South Carolina, fending off a fourth-quarter comeback to win 37-32.

4
+2
Ohio State
59.2
24.3

A week after farting around against Michigan State, the Buckeyes brought their A-game to The Game. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 214 yards, and J.T. Barrett ran for another 139, as Ohio State won 42-13.

5
-1
Navy
52.5
24.3

Navy was overpowered by Houston in a 52-31 loss. The Cougars even ran for more yards than the Midshipmen's vaunted rushing offense could muster.

6
+1
Iowa
52.2
20.3
7
-2
Baylor
52.0
18.1
8
+1
Michigan State
51.5
18.1
9
+3
Houston
50.4
19.6
10
-2
Notre Dame
49.0
14.8
11
-1
Stanford
49.0
19.6
12
+4
Florida State
45.9
18.3
13
+2
TCU
44.4
19.7
14
+5
Ole Miss
44.1
19.0
15
-4
Michigan
42.5
23.9
16
+2
Utah
42.2
17.7
17
+7
Georgia Southern
42.0
22.3
18
+3
Appalachian St.
41.8
24.0
19
+4
LSU
41.7
19.7
20
-7
Toledo
41.5
16.3
21
+6
Memphis
40.8
24.7
22
0
Oregon
40.7
25.1
23
+3
USC
40.0
14.3
24
-10
Florida
40.0
23.8
25
0
Northwestern
39.5
26.1


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(29) Air Force, like their sister service academy, was uncharacteristically out-rushed by New Mexico, losing 47-35 and the chance of hosting the Mountain West championship.

(35) Oklahoma State tumbles out of the Top 25 after getting dominated by Oklahoma.

Team worse than the average FCS team:


(126) Kansas botched a couple punts and lost 45-14 to Kansas State to round out their winless season.

(127) UCF came out to a 3-0 lead over South Florida and never scored again. The Knights lost 44-3 and finished 0-12 on the season.

(128) Eastern Michigan also started out hot, but Central Michigan staged a comeback in the third quarter to hand the Eagles their eleventh loss.

(129) North Texas had a chance against UTEP before ceding a 72-yard drive and then turning the ball over on downs. UNT lost 20-17 and ended the season 1-11.

Largest improvement in rank: +9 Bowling Green beat Ball State 48-10 after clinching the MAC East, Southern Miss clinched the C-USA West with a 58-24 victory over Louisiana Tech, Washington won the Apple Cup 45-10, and Massachusetts upset Buffalo 31-26.

Largest drop in rank: -15 Oklahoma State lost Bedlam, the Big XII title, and MY RESPECT.

Most consistent team: Mizzou was consistently bad in conference, ending the season with one SEC win over South Carolina.

Least consistent team: New Mexico followed up a 7-point loss to Colorado State with a 12-point win over the Mountain West Mountain-winning Air Force.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
30.85
Big XII
30.33
Big Ten
30.02
Pac-12
29.45
ACC
26.48
American
24.80
Mountain West
18.81
MAC
17.78
Sun Belt
14.02
Conference USA
12.86

THREE MORE THINGS

[Jonathan Bachman-AP]

More Les: After rumors swirled for the past week about whether Les Miles was keeping his head coaching job at LSU, the Tigers beat Texas A&M 19-7, apparently just what the AD was waiting for to decide that, hey, Les Miles ain't that bad. This is ridiculous. Sure, he hasn't beaten Alabama in four years, but since taking this job in 2005, LSU has won two SEC championships and a national championship and gone 111-32 overall. In Miles's worst season, LSU went 8-5. Do you think you can find someone more successful than that, especially in a job market where fifteen or so FBS schools are already looking for a new head coach? Look how well Michigan has done over the past seven years, Nebraska has done this year, or Georgia will have done next year and you'll see how stupid it would've been to let Miles go.


Old Man Griping: There are a whopping forty bowl games this year. There are 128 FBS teams. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that there aren't enough teams with non-losing records (never mind winning records) to fill those slots. Currently, 75 teams have at least six wins, and three more (Kansas State, Georgia State, and South Alabama) have the potential to win their sixth game next week. The remaining two to five openings will be filled with the 5-7 teams with the best Academic Progress Rate. But there's an even better solution: drop some bowl games. There should be at most 32 bowl games right now, so that only the better half of the teams gets a postseason. Going bowling is a privilege to be earned, and winning fewer than half of your games shouldn't earn you anything.

Who’s In? Here's how I see it:
  1. Oklahoma is already an 11-1 conference champion who has beaten Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State. The Sooners are a lock.
  2. Michigan State/Iowa: After next week, we will have a still-undefeated Iowa or a 12-1 Michigan State who beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa. Either way, the Big Ten Champion is in.
  3. Clemson/North Carolina: No one should be surprised that Clemson is in if they win the ACC. But should Clemson lose, I think the Committee will be hard-pressed to keep a 12-1, ACC-winning, Clemson-vanquishing North Carolina out, even if two of those twelve wins were against FCS schools and the one loss was against a 3-9 South Carolina.
  4. Alabama/Stanford/Florida/Ohio State: Again, no surprise that the Crimson Tide take the fourth spot if Alabama wins the SEC. If Florida upsets Bama, things could get interesting. To me, the choice would be between a two-loss, SEC-winning Florida and a two-loss, Pac-12-winning Stanford, assuming Stanford wins the Pac-12 Championship over USC next week. Given the trouble Florida has had eking out ten wins (East Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida Atlantic), Stanford would have the edge here. Should both Bama and Stanford lose, then maybe Ohio State squeaks in, but I would find it hard to believe that the Committee would let two Big Ten schools in while excluding everyone from the SEC.

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