Week 13 Rankings

I have finally recovered from my Thanksgiving food coma and can now present:

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	0	Alabama	61.2

The Tide rolled over Auburn 49-0, maintaining their #1 spot.

2	0	Oregon	59.5

The Ducks win the Civil War, beating Oregon State 48-24.

3

+1

Notre Dame

54.7

Notre Dame beat USC 22-13 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would make it seem. Though it's not enough to convince me or the math that the Irish are the best team in the country, they've earned the right as the only eligible undefeated team to prove us wrong on the field.

4

-1

Kansas State

54.6

After a bye week, Kansas State loses their #3 spot to the Fighting Irish. The Wildcats probably should've been down here last week.

5

+1

Texas A&M

50.2

The Aggies easily beat Missouri 59-29, but it's Florida State's loss to Florida that propels A&M to the #5 spot.

6	+2	Georgia	49.6
7	+2	Florida	49.6
8	-1	Oklahoma	48.2
9	-4	Florida State	46.6
10	0	Ohio State	46.2
11	+3	Stanford	43.8
12	+3	LSU	42.4
13	+5	South Carolina	42.4
14	-3	Clemson	40.8
15	+2	Nebraska	40.2
16	-3	Oklahoma State	38.9
17	+4	Northern Illinois	38.0
18	-6	Oregon State	37.7
19	+1	Utah State	37.4
20	-4	Texas	37.1
21	-2	UCLA	35.7
22	+7	Fresno State	34.9
23	+1	San Jose State	34.8
24	-1	Boise State	34.5
25	-3	Michigan	32.2

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#36) Rutgers

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Most consistent team: USC wins this honor after losing close to Notre Dame. Former title holder Northwestern lost the spot by beating Illinois by 36 in a season-best performance.

Most inconsistent team: Arizona's 7-point loss to Arizona State wasn't surprising, but the Wildcats retain this title after a rollercoaster season.

Conference Rankings: (Based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	14.43
SEC	11.61
Pac-12	7.69
Big Ten	3.17
ACC	1.10
Big East	-1.98
Sun Belt	-3.10
Mountain West	-6.97
WAC	-7.91
Conference USA	-9.00
MAC	-11.91

Games to watch next week:

#28 UCF at #34 Tulsa (Noon ET, ESPN2) The math is telling me that this is the best game to watch this weekend. Though I'm not sure I agree, the Conference USA Championship does feature two 9-3 teams that didn't quite make the Top 25 and promises to be the closest game this weekend. Well, except for South Alabama at Hawaii. Even the math knows you don't want to watch that. Line: UCF by 2.

#15 Nebraska vs. #48 Wisconsin (8:17 ET, Fox) The B1G Championship might be more interesting if Nebraska wasn't facing a 7-5 Badger team that got in by virtue of being eligible for postseason play. Still, the matchup should be a close Big Ten slugfest. Line: Nebraska by 5.

#8 Oklahoma at #26 TCU (Noon ET, ESPN) Oklahoma can clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title with a win against the Horned Frogs this Saturday. The Sooners can still win outright if Kansas State also falls this weekend, though Oklahoma fans would have to root for Texas to make this happen. Line: Oklahoma by 6

#1 Alabama vs. #6 Georgia (4:00 ET, CBS) The math misses games like this one where it doesn't think the underdog has much of a chance. This season, those games have included Alabama-Texas A&M and Oregon-Stanford. The math also doesn't know that the winner of the SEC Championship will probably be receiving an invitation to the National Championship. (Although right now, I would send Oregon over Georgia.) Line: Alabama by 12.5

Week 12 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	+2	Alabama	59.4

Alabama rolled over the fantastically named Western Carolina Catamounts, 49-0, but losses by both Oregon and Kansas State are what propel the Tide back to #1.

2	-1	Oregon	57.4

Oregon suffers a heartbreaking 17-14 loss in overtime to Stanford and falls to #2.

3

-1

Kansas State

54.2

What's the matter with Kansas State? An unrecognizable Wildcat team showed up yesterday and lost 52-24 to a 5-5 Baylor team.

4

0

Notre Dame

53.7

The Fighting Irish stay undefeated by squashing Wake Forest, 38-0. However, it is not enough to convince the math to rank them above the three aforementioned one-loss teams.

5

0

Florida State

52.4

Florida State stays put at #5 and clinches a spot in the ACC title game after beating Maryland 41-14.

6	0	Texas A&M	48.3
7	+2	Oklahoma	47.2
8	0	Georgia	47.1
9	-2	Florida	46.8
10	0	Ohio State	46.0
11	0	Clemson	45.9
12	+5	Oregon State	42.3
13	+5	Oklahoma State	42.2
14	+2	Stanford	41.7
15	-2	LSU	41.3
16	-2	Texas	41.2
17	-2	Nebraska	40.1
18	-6	South Carolina	39.9
19	0	UCLA	39.9
20	+2	Utah State	37.7
21	0	Northern Illinois	36.2
22	+4	Michigan	34.8
23	+2	Boise State	34.2
24	+6	San Jose State	33.8
25	+7	Rutgers	33.6

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#27) Louisiana Tech, (#30) USC, (#32) Texas Tech

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Most consistent team: Northwestern retains this honor, again after doing slightly better than expected by beating Michigan State by 3 in East Lansing.

Most inconsistent team: Another Wildcat team, Arizona, also keeps their title. They swing from beating a terrible Colorado team by 25 last week to beating an underrated Utah squad by 10 yesterday.

Conference Rankings: (These rankings are based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	14.26
SEC	10.54
Pac-12	7.83
Big Ten	3.27
ACC	2.24
Big East	-1.76
Sun Belt	-3.23
Mountain West	-6.95
WAC	-7.62
Conference USA	-9.08
MAC	-12.01

Games to watch next week:

There are so many great rivalry games coming up that it'll be hard to go wrong on Thanksgiving weekend. Here are the best of the best:

#4 Notre Dame at #30 USC (8:00, ABC) After last weekend, Notre Dame remains one of only two unbeaten FBS teams, just in time to face their second-biggest test of the season. A big win here may be enough to quiet the naysayers and to convince the math to rank them at least #3. Line: Notre Dame by 1.

#13 Oklahoma State at #7 Oklahoma (3:30) The math has always been big on the Cowboys, even after a 21-point loss to Arizona. Now the math is telling you to tune into Bedlam. Also, following Baylor's upset of K State, Oklahoma wins here and next week would be enough for the Sooners to share the Big 12 title. Line: Oklahoma by 4.

#14 Stanford at #19 UCLA (6:30, Fox) This game may be a prepeat of the Pac-12 Championship. UCLA's victory over USC last week is enough to guarantee them a spot in the title match. A Stanford win here or an Oregon loss at Oregon State would be enough to send the Cardinal. Line: UCLA by 2.

Week 11 Rankings

I've revamped the ranking system to take into account win-loss record explicitly. Previously, margin of victory was the only thing that mattered, meaning a team that won two games each by ten would be considered worse than a team that won one by 30 and lost another by 3. To get the math to work right, however, I had to change my reference point; now you can think of points as how much that team would beat the worst team in the FBS, instead of the average. Also, keep in mind that the change in rank for this week takes into account these changes in addition to what happened on the field.

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	+3	Oregon	64.3

Oregon moves up to #1 as the Ducks turn in their second-best performance of the season, murdering Cal 59-17, and as Alabama falls to Texas A&M.

2	0	Kansas State	62.4

Kansas State stays put at #2 as Oregon and Alabama leapfrog over the Wildcats. K-State beat TCU by 13, exactly what you would expect.

3

-2

Alabama

61.6

Alabama suffers its first loss, falling to Texas A&M 24-29 and dropping two spots in the rankings.

4

+5

Notre Dame

52.9

The Irish rise due to the change in the ranking system more than anything else. Can you really imagine Oregon or Bama only beating Boston College by 15?

5

+1

Florida State

51.4

The 9-1 Seminoles also benefit from the change. They would otherwise not have risen this week after beating a mediocre Virginia Tech team, 28-22.

6

-3

Texas A&M

51.4

Two-loss Texas A&M suffers from the change, dropping three spots despite upsetting Bama last week.

7	0	Florida	50.8
8	+3	Georgia	50.0
9	-4	Oklahoma	47.3
10	+13	Ohio State	45.6
11	+3	Clemson	45.2
12	-2	South Carolina	43.5
13	-1	LSU	42.6
14	+4	Texas	40.6
15	+4	Nebraska	38.8
16	+6	Stanford	38.8
17	-1	Oregon State	38.7
18	-10	Oklahoma State	38.6
19	-4	UCLA	38.1
20	+13	Louisiana Tech	36.6
21	+19	Northern Illinois	36.6
22	+6	Utah State	36.4
23	-3	USC	35.7
24	-11	Texas Tech	35.2
25	+14	Boise State	33.5

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#46) Arizona State, (#36) TCU, (#37) BYU

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Most consistent team: (#39) Northwestern has been consistently decent all year. This week's 7-point loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor is actually slightly better than expected, but not by much.

Most inconsistent team: 6-4 Arizona keeps this dubious title after only beating Colorado by 25.

Conference Rankings: (These rankings are based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	13.90
SEC	13.04
Pac-12	7.30
Big Ten	2.91
ACC	1.34
Big East	-2.85
Sun Belt	-3.09
Mountain West	-7.11
WAC	-7.99
Conference USA	-8.96
MAC	-12.03

Games to watch next week:

#23 USC at #19 UCLA (TBD) Whoever wins this game takes the Pac-12 South. Enough said. Line: UCLA by 1.5

#10 Ohio State at #33 Wisconsin (3:30, ABC) Given that Ohio State and Penn State are barred from the postseason, Wisconsin is already guaranteed to go to the Big Ten Championship. Still, the unbeaten Buckeyes are playing for pride, and playing the Badgers at Camp Randall is the toughest test of OSU's season. Line: Wisconsin by 1.

#22 Utah State at #20 Louisiana Tech (4:00, ESPN3) Okay, hear me out. First, both teams are undefeated in conference play and this game is the de facto conference championship, though the conference in question is the WAC. Next, both teams have impressive out-of-conference performances:  Utah St. beat Utah by an OT touchdown and lost by 2 against Wisconsin and by 3 against BYU; LT beat Illinois and Virginia and lost by 2 against Texas A&M. Finally, this game looks to be the most evenly matched contest next week. These teams are flat-out better than a lot of teams in AQ conferences, and this game is worthy of your attention.

#16 Stanford at #1 Oregon (TBD) The math missed this one because Oregon has such a huge edge over Stanford. Of course, the math said the same thing about Texas A&M at Alabama. Stanford can win the Pac-12 North by beating the Ducks then UCLA next week; Oregon will clinch with a win here. Line: Oregon by 21.