Saturday, August 24, 2013

Meaningless Preseason Rankings

With nothing to go on but how these teams did last season, the math considers these teams your Top 25:

Rk
Team
Points
1
Alabama
54.3

The Tide are, naturally, #1. With the nation's best rushing defense last year (allowing a scant 76.4 yards a game), including rushing yards in the model improves Bama's standing even further. The scheduling gods have also graced Alabama with byes before their two toughest games (#3 Texas A&M and #10 LSU), games against Kentucky and Tennessee (the worst of the SEC East last year), and non-conference cupcakes like Colorado State, Chattanooga, and FBS-newcomer Georgia State. An 11-2 season would be a disappointment.

2
Oregon
53.6

With the loss of coach Chip Kelly to the NFL, how will the Ducks fare this year against the likes of Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon State?
Toughest opponents: #9 Stanford, #16 Oregon State, #29 UCLA
Weakest opponents: FCS Nicholls State, #120 Colorado, #107 Washington State

3
Texas A&M
49.5

Controversy has surrounded Johnny Manziel in the off-season for allegedly taking cash for autographs. But with the return of last year's Heisman winner and by avoiding the strongest SEC East teams, the Aggies should have another fantastic season.
Toughest opponent: #1 Alabama, #10 LSU
Weakest opponent: FCS Sam Houston State, #101 UTEP

4
Kansas State
46.5

The Wildcats no longer have QB Collin Klein, but they still have Coach Snyder. K-State will probably slide a bit from last year, but excluding them from the Top 25 seems unjustified.
Toughest opponents: #5 Oklahoma State, #14 Oklahoma, #15 Baylor, #21 TCU, #26 Texas
Weakest opponents: #125 Massachusetts, FCS North Dakota State

5
Oklahoma State
46.4

The math was rather bullish on the 8-5 Cowboys last season, as they tended to win games big and lose games close. With any luck, OK State can translate their highly productive offense into wins this year in a tough conference.
Toughest opponents: #4 Kansas State, #14 Oklahoma, #15 Baylor, #21 TCU, #26 Texas
Weakest opponents: FCS Lamar, #94 UT-San Antonio

6
Florida State
45.1
7
Notre Dame
44.9
8
Florida
44.3
9
Stanford
43.5
10
LSU
42.6
11
Ohio State
42.5
12
Georgia
42.3
13
Wisconsin
42.2
14
Oklahoma
41.5
15
Baylor
41.0
16
Oregon State
41.0
17
Georgia Tech
40.7
18
Nebraska
40.5
19
Michigan
40.3
20
South Carolina
39.9
21
TCU
39.9
22
Arizona State
39.4
23
Clemson
39.1
24
Northwestern
39.0
25
BYU
38.8

With the annual conference reshuffling and the formation of the American Athletic Conference out of the implosion of the Big East, Dynamite Rankings is here to tell you who the best conference is now:

Conference
Average
Big 12
38.76
SEC
38.23
Pac-12
35.23
Big Ten
34.08
ACC
31.05
American
28.60
Mountain West
28.15
Sun Belt
24.63
Conference USA
24.13
MAC
22.52

We also welcome Old Dominion to the FBS and wonder how Georgia State got in. (Seriously, they went 1-10 last year in the FCS, losing to football powerhouses like the Maine Black Bears.)

Games to Watch:

#12 Georgia at #23 Clemson (8:00 EST, ABC) The math is relatively down on these teams--both AP and the Coaches Poll put Georgia at #5 and Clemson at #8--but we all agree these are Top 25 caliber teams. This game rightly receives the primetime spot.
Line: Georgia by 2.5

#10 LSU vs. #21 TCU (9:00 EST, ESPN) This year's Cowboys Classic features two of the best teams from the two best conferences in the country. It should be closer than last year's Michigan-Alabama matchup too.
Line: LSU by 5.5

#33 Ole Miss at #34 Vanderbilt (Thursday 9:15 EST, ESPN) Conference play starts early in the SEC. Though this game probably won't have conference title implications with all the other teams ahead of them, the Rebels and Commodores are very evenly matched. Home field advantage wins this one for Vandy.
Line: Vandy by 3.5

Thursday, August 22, 2013

How it Works (Version 2.0)

Dynamite Rankings take five things into account:
  1. Margin of victory: Beating a team by 30 points is more impressive than beating a team by 10, which is more impressive than losing by 7.
  2. Strength of schedule: Playing well against Alabama is more impressive than playing well against Massachusetts.
  3. Home field advantage: Home teams win by 4 points on average. Dynamite Rankings correct for that.
  4. Rushing yards: An analysis of last year's bowl games showed that including rushing yards doubled the explanatory power of the model. The fact that teams that are ahead run more to eat up the clock might explain why.
  5. Win-loss record: On top of margin of victory, the win-loss record is considered at the end of the calculation to reward teams with better overall records.
For each game, the margin of victory, the strength of the opponent, the rushing yard margin, and whether the team had home-field advantage on their side are combined to score a team's performance in that game. A team's ranking is determined by averaging over all the games of the season. Before every team has played three games, last season's performance is also included (weighted as a single game) to "seed" the calculations. What results is a system of 127 equations with 127 unknowns (since a team's performance score depends on their opponents' performance) that you ask your computer to solve for you. (For ease of calculation, all FCS teams are lumped together into one team.)

After this calculation, scores are shifted such that the worst team has a score of 0. Then, to determine the final scores, each team has its score multiplied by:


The result is a number that is roughly how many points you'd expect that team to beat the worst FBS team at a neutral location.