Sunday, September 28, 2014

Week 5 Rankings: Ghosts in the Machine

Your Top 25:



Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
+1
Auburn
72.6

Remember last week when I said if Auburn and Alabama were both 4-0, Auburn would be #1? Well, after dominating Louisiana Tech and an Alabama bye, the Tigers reclaim their #1 spot.

2
+2
Oklahoma
66.7

Oklahoma had a bye this week, but the Sooners mysteriously rise as Alabama mysteriously falls. More on that later.

3
0
Mississippi State
62.7

Mississippi State also had a bye this week. The Bulldogs stay put at #3.

4
+1
Texas A&M
62.5

The Aggies outlasted the Arkansas Razorbacks, winning 35-28. A&M tied the game with a little over 2 minutes in regulation, scored a touchdown on the first play of overtime, and held Arkansas to a four and out on the Razorbacks' overtime drive.

5
-4
Alabama
61.6

Alabama had a bye this week, but curiously drops four places after the Math revised their strength of schedule downward. More on that below.

6
+8
Ole Miss
61.1
7
+4
UCLA
59.3
8
-2
BYU
58.5
9
+4
Nebraska
58.4
10
-2
Baylor
55.6
11
-2
Marshall
53.1
12
+4
Georgia
53.1
13
+4
Oregon
52.7
14
-7
Notre Dame
52.1
15
+13
TCU
50.9
16
-6
Arkansas
50.3
17
+1
Wisconsin
48.9
18
+5
Georgia Tech
47.1
19
+1
LSU
45.7
20
+6
Georgia Southern
45.6
21
+14
Michigan State
43.6
22
+5
Louisville
42.9
23
+1
Arizona
42.8
24
+12
Ohio State
42.7
25
+28
Minnesota
40.9


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (#29) North Carolina State (lost 56-41 to Florida State at home)
  • (#31) Utah (lost 28-27 to Washington State at home)
  • (#32) Memphis (lost 24-3 at Ole Miss)
  • (#34) Pittsburgh (lost 21-10 to Akron!? at home)
  • (#39) Boston College (lost 24-21 to Colorado State at home)
  • (#54) Florida (bye)
Teams worse than the average FCS team: Eastern Michigan dropped in rankings with Florida and Alabama after all three had byes this week.

Largest improvement in rank: +28 Minnesota and Air Force both pulled off convincing upsets this week. The Golden Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, and the Falcons took advantage of seven Boise State turnovers to top the Broncos 28-14.

Largest drop in rank: -42 Florida is surprisingly the team with the largest drop this week, even though the Gators had a bye. Their strength of schedule was revised downward along with their opponents, even though Alabama and Eastern Michigan also had bye weeks. Best as I can figure, Old Dominion's loss to Middle Tennessee dropped EMU's strength of schedule, which rippled through to Florida and Alabama. Florida's rank was affected more than Eastern and Bama as the Gators are closer to the middle of that bell curve, where more teams are clumped up and small changes have a bigger effect on one's rank. Ghosts in the machine, man, ghosts in the machine.


Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
45.73
Pac-12
34.29
Big 12
33.58
Big Ten
32.83
ACC
32.45
Conference USA
21.71
American
18.88
Mountain West
18.66
Sun Belt
14.13
MAC
13.86

Games to watch next week:

(#5) Alabama at (#6) Ole Miss (3:30 PM ET, TBD) Five of the top six teams are in the SEC West, and the division gives us two great games to watch on Saturday as conference play begins in earnest. Ole Miss comes off of a win over an underrated Memphis team, while the Crimson Tide had a restful bye week. Neither team has really been tested thus far, but I think home field advantage will win this one for the Rebs.
Line: Ole Miss by 3.5

(#4) Texas A&M at (#3) Mississippi State (Noon ET, ABC) The second SEC West showdown next week features an Aggie team that looked vincible this week against Arkansas and a Bulldog squad that enjoyed a week off after upsetting LSU. Will A&M be better prepared against a team that looks better on paper? Or will the Bulldogs' version of the 12th man be too much for the Aggies?
Line: Mississippi State by 7

(#2) Oklahoma at (#15) TCU (3:30 PM ET, Fox) I think TCU is underrated by the other rankings. The Horned Frogs are one of three teams remaining in the Big 12 with a perfect record, and TCU just dominated SMU to the tune of 56-0. Oklahoma will still be too much for the Frogs, but the game will be closer than you expect.
Line: Oklahoma by 13.5

(#9) Nebraska at (#21) Michigan State (8:00 PM ET, ABC) Two of the four best teams--maybe I should say, "of the four good teams"--in the Big Ten also face off next week, as the Spartans host the Huskers. So far, Michigan State has lost to Oregon while putting up big numbers against weak teams like Eastern Michigan and Wyoming. Meanwhile, Nebraska is 5-0, but their strongest opponent has been 53rd-ranked Miami (FL). The Math is giving the edge to Nebraska; I'm not so sure.
Line: Nebraska by 1.5

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Week 4 Rankings

Preseason rankings no longer matter this week, and some wild swings are evident as a result. Here are Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
+7
Alabama
67.1

Bama had their first statement win this season with a 42-21 victory over a Florida team on the upswing. Coupled with the fact that their preseason #5 ranking is no longer holding them back, the Tide came up to #1 this week.

2
-1
Auburn
65.9

Auburn held off Kansas State 20-14 in a Thursday night catfight, but it's not enough to prevent the Tigers from falling to #2. That being said, if Auburn were 4-0 like Bama instead of 3-0, the Tigers would be first.

3
+8
Mississippi State
64.4

Mississippi State nearly succumbed to a last-minute comeback but managed to pull off the 34-29 upset at LSU. The Bulldogs' QB Dak Prescott was impressive, passing for 268 yards and running for another 105. Mississippi State rises to #3 as they shake off the yoke of last year's 7-6 record.

4
+3
Oklahoma
60.7

Oklahoma kicked it into gear during the second half to top West Virginia 45-33 at Morgantown. Freshman tailback Samaje Perine had a breakout performance, scoring 4 touchdowns and rushing for 242 yards, compared to the Mountaineers' combined 137 yards.

5
+1
Texas A&M
59.6

The Aggies unsurprisingly had their way with SMU, beating the Mustangs 58-6 and putting up 663 yards of total offense.

6
-1
BYU
56.6
7
+11
Notre Dame
54.5
8
-6
Baylor
53.9
9
+17
Marshall
53.3
10
+7
Arkansas
52.8
11
+4
UCLA
52.0
12
+29
Florida
51.7
13
+7
Nebraska
50.8
14
-4
Ole Miss
49.3
15
+7
Utah
48.8
16
+9
Georgia
48.5
17
-13
Oregon
48.1
18
+15
Wisconsin
47.3
19
+10
NC State
46.8
20
-11
LSU
46.2
21
-18
Pittsburgh
44.1
22
+28
Memphis
43.4
23
-7
Georgia Tech
42.5
24
-11
Arizona
41.1
25
+9
Boston College
40.6

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (#34) Arizona State (bye)
  • (#36) Ohio State (bye)
  • (#37) Northern Illinois (lost at Arkansas 52-14)
  • (#44) Navy (lost to Rutgers 31-24)
  • (#45) Missouri (lost to Indiana! 31-27)
  • (#46) Florida State (beat Clemson in OT 23-17)

What's going on here? Arizona State, Ohio State, and Florida State all fell this week after jettisoning the preseason rankings from the calculation, and all three have underperformed compared to last season. ASU has had a weak schedule (Weber State, New Mexico, and Colorado), but these opponents have still managed to score an average of 20 points per game. OSU lost to Virginia Tech, who then proceeded to lose to East Carolina and Georgia Tech.

As for FSU, I'm not sure I agree with the math that the Seminoles belong out of the Top 25, but FSU is currently 79th in rushing defense, and 111th in rushing offense. These stats have to change for Florida State to contend at a level approaching last year's performance. This week's game against North Carolina State, their first true road game of the season, could prove to be an unexpected test for the Seminoles.

Teams worse than the average FCS team: New Mexico State (lost to New Mexico 38-35)

Largest improvement in rank: +73 By beating Murray State last week, Western Michigan has already surpassed last season's 1-11 mark. The Broncos have out-rushed their opponents by a Barack-Obama-not-bad-face amount of 157 yards.


Largest drop in rank: -37 North Carolina's loss to East Carolina wasn't entirely unexpected, but I didn't expect the Tar Heel defense to give up 70 points and 789 yards of total offense.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
46.46
Pac-12
32.77
ACC
30.78
Big Ten
30.02
Big 12
28.90
Conference USA
20.49
American
18.27
Mountain West
15.41
Sun Belt
14.71
MAC
13.27

Games to watch next week:

(#10) Arkansas vs. (#5) Texas A&M (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Line: Arkansas by 1

(#22) Memphis at (#14) Ole Miss (7:30 PM ET, ESPN3)
Line: Memphis by 3

(#11) UCLA at (#34) Arizona State (Thursday 10 PM ET, Fox Sports 1)
Line: UCLA by 18.5