Friday, September 5, 2014

Wacky Week 1 Rankings

Your Top 25:
Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Florida State
52.7

Florida State stays at #1, but looks less invincible after only beating Oklahoma State 37-31 at Jerryworld.

2
+4
Baylor
52.3

Baylor rises to #2 after a definitive 45-0 victory over SMU. Baylor's defense held the Mustangs to 67 total yards and -24 yards rushing.

3
-1
Auburn
51.3

Auburn pulled away from Arkansas in the second half, beating the Razorbacks 45-21, but it wasn't enough to keep them from sliding to #3.

4
+23
Georgia
50.9

Georgia ended last season out of the Top 25, but rockets up to #4 after a marquee 45-21 win over Clemson.

5
+19
Arizona
48.5

The Math was impressed by Arizona's 45-point win over UNLV, where the Wildcats posted a school-record 787 yards of total offense. After eking out a win over UTSA yesterday, it doesn't appear that this week's #5 ranking is justified.

6
-3
Ohio State
48.3
7
-2
Alabama
47.9
8
+20
Texas A&M
47.7
9
+12
USC
47.6
10
+48
Pittsburgh
47.5
11
-7
Oregon
47.3
12
+23
Nebraska
46.2
13
+4
LSU
44.4
14
-6
Stanford
44.2
15
+7
Northern Illinois
44.1
16
+7
BYU
43.0
17
+15
Notre Dame
41.4
18
-5
UCLA
41.2
19
+22
Texas
40.9
20
-4
Louisville
40.8
21
+12
Ole Miss
40.6
22
+47
Tennessee
40.6
23
-14
Michigan State
40.1
24
-10
Oklahoma
39.2
25
-10
Arizona State
38.8


Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#28) Washington, (#35) Missouri, (#44) Wisconsin, (#50) Georgia Tech, (#51) Oklahoma State, (#68) Clemson, (#70) South Carolina, (#73) UCF

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Just Florida International, who lost to FCS Bethune-Cookman 14-12 on Saturday.

Week One swings are to be expected, as preseason rankings based on last year's performance and speculation first encounter reality, but the swings this Week One are impressive:

Largest improvement in rank: +71 Memphis laid waste to FCS Austin Peay 63-0, which though not quite Texas State's 65-0 beatdown of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, was enough to land the Tigers in this category this week.

Largest drop in rank: -61 Fresno State's loss to USC was expected, but the 52-13 margin was not, landing the Bulldogs here this week.

Most consistent team: Central Michigan's four-point victory over Chattanooga is consistent with last year's performance. Unfortunately for Chippewa fans, CMU finished 6-6 last season and stayed home during bowl season.

Least consistent team: Texas State's monster win -- a 65-0 dismantling of FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the largest margin of victory last week -- may indicate that things are looking up for a Bobcat squad that also went 6-6 last year.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
36.51
Pac-12
35.06
Big Ten
30.67
ACC
29.52
Big 12
28.21
American
21.81
Mountain West
21.02
Sun Belt
18.50
Conference USA
18.38
MAC
16.75

Week 2 Games to Watch

(#9) USC at (#14) Stanford (3:30 PM ET, ABC)
The Math considers this Pac-12 matchup your best game of the week, and it promises to be a good one. USC pulled off the upset against Stanford last year, nearly costing the Cardinal the Pac-12 North. The teams should be fairly evenly matched this time around too.
Line: USC by 1.5

(#16) BYU at (#19) Texas (7:30 PM ET, Fox Sports 1)
BYU-Texas promises to be the closest matchup this week, and you can bet the Longhorns will be playing with gusto tomorrow, as BYU handed Texas their first loss in last year's 8-5 season.
Line: Texas by 0.5

(#23) Michigan State at (#11) Oregon (6:30 PM ET, Fox)
In this corner, Michigan State, who bested Stanford in last year's Rose Bowl and had the #2 defense last season. In the other corner, Oregon, the other powerhouse of the Pac-12 North and last year's #2 offense. Will the Spartans repeat and score another one for the Big Ten? Will the Ducks not choke like they've done against Stanford the last two years?
Line: Oregon by 16

(#27) Memphis at (#18) UCLA (10:00 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
(#35) Missouri at (#38) Toledo (Noon ET, ESPN)
Memphis, and Toledo both had above-average performances last week, while UCLA and Mizzou underperformed. Toledo also somehow has the home field advantage. Like Arizona last night against UTSA, UCLA and Mizzou should consider themselves on upset watch this week.
Lines: UCLA by 10, Toledo by 2.5

(#34) Michigan at (#17) Notre Dame (7:30 PM ET, NBC)
Michigan and Notre Dame both got off to promising starts last week with demonstrative wins over Appalachian State and Rice, respectively. And being the last game of the rivalry for the foreseeable future, both teams have added incentive to win this one. (Just preferably not for the Gipper.)
Line: Notre Dame by 13.5

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