Week 13 Rankings

Sorry I was too busy to post last week. Here are your rankings for this week:

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	0	Florida State	87.3

FSU's 80-14 trouncing of lowly Idaho is enough to keep the Seminoles at #1. 

2

+1

Ohio State

84.6

Ohio State's 28-point victory over Indiana was not their most impressive win of the season, but the Buckeyes rise to #2 on Baylor's loss.

3

+1

Alabama

80.2

Like OSU, Bama's 49-0 victory over FCS Chattanooga was a below-average performance by the Tide, but they move up one spot after Baylor lost.

4

-2

Baylor

74.3

You may have expected Baylor's loss to Oklahoma State, but certainly the magnitude (49-17) was a surprise. Baylor likely lost their shot at not only the National Championship but the Big 12 championship on Saturday.

5

0

Oregon

71.5

Oregon gets upset again, losing 42-16 to Arizona and coughing up the Pac-12 North to Stanford.

6	0	Auburn	70.1
7	0	Missouri	69.8
8	0	Wisconsin	69.6
9	0	Stanford	65.6
10	+1	Arizona State	64.0
11	-1	Clemson	63.8
12	0	Oklahoma State	61.8
13	0	Michigan State	58.9
14	0	South Carolina	57.6
15	+3	Northern Illinois	55.6
16	+3	Georgia Tech	54.8
17	+3	USC	52.4
18	+4	LSU	52.1
19	-2	Louisville	52.1
20	+4	Oklahoma	51.6
21	-6	UCLA	51.2
22	+5	Washington	50.2
23	0	UCF	49.7
24	-8	BYU	49.4
25	+1	Fresno State	49.2

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#26) Duke, (#30) Texas A&M

Teams worse than the average FCS team: (#119) Massachusetts, (#120) Eastern Michigan, (#121) Western Michigan, (#122) Georgia State, (#123) New Mexico State, (#124) Miami (OH), (#125) Southern Miss, (#126) FIU

Largest improvement in rank: +11 UNLV played their best game so far, beating Air Force 41-21, and South Alabama played their second-best, beating Louisiana-Monroe 36-14.

Largest drop in rank: -13 Houston was outrushed by 139 yards in a 7-point loss to Cincinnati, Florida lost to an FCS Georgia Southern team that failed to complete a pass, and Ohio was embarrassed at home in a 44-13 loss to Kent State.

Most consistent team: Pittsburgh takes back this title after a 1-point win over Syracuse.

Most inconsistent team: Ohio takes this title after losing big to Kent State.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	43.09
Pac-12	42.67
ACC	39.09
Big Ten	38.77
Big 12	34.85
American	25.74
Mountain West	23.50
Sun Belt	21.22
Conference USA	20.55
MAC	19.50

Games to watch this week:

(#3) Alabama at (#6) Auburn (3:30 PM ET, CBS) One of the best college football rivalries is even better this year as both Bama and Auburn are Top-10 caliber teams, and the winner of the Iron Bowl goes to the SEC Championship game.

Line: Alabama by 1

(#11) Clemson at (#14) South Carolina (7:00 PM ET, ESPN 2) The Battle for the Palmetto State should also be interesting. South Carolina is still in the running to win their division, and Clemson would be if they didn't have the misfortune of sharing the ACC Atlantic with Florida State. Home field advantage wins this one for the Gamecocks.

Line: South Carolina by 3

(#21) UCLA at (#17) USC (8:00 PM ET, ABC) Your third rivalry game to watch is LA's crosstown rivalry. Since Ed Orgeron took over after Lane Kiffin's firing, USC has gone 6-1, including an upset over Stanford. UCLA is 9-3 with losses to ASU, Stanford, and Oregon. Neither team can win the Pac-12 South after both lost to Arizona State, but both teams are playing for second and for pride.

Line: USC by 3.5

(#27) Arizona at (#10) Arizona State (9:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Network) This year's fight for the Territorial Cup features the Pac-12 South champion and an underrated Arizona team that upset Oregon last week.

Line: Arizona State by 12

Who will win...the Pac-12?

Pac-12 North

Team	Conf	Ovrl
#7 Stanford	6-1	8-1
#5 Oregon	5-1	8-1
#55 Oregon State	4-2	6-3
#21 Washington	3-3	6-3
#80 Washington State	2-4	4-5
#109 Cal	0-7	1-9

With their win over Oregon last week, Stanford is half a game ahead and holds the crucial tie-breaker if both the Cardinal and the Ducks win out. Oregon needs Stanford to lose at least once, and this week's Stanford-USC game is the Ducks' best hope. Should the Cardinal lose to USC, though, an unlikely second loss by Oregon would put Stanford back on top.

Oregon State could also win the Pac-12 North, but the Beavers need to win out (against Arizona State, Washington, and Oregon) and, having already lost to Stanford, they need Stanford to lose out (against USC and Cal). I put the odds of this happening at about 1 in 500 trillion.

Pac-12 South

Team	Conf	Ovrl
#10 Arizona State	5-1	7-2
#18 UCLA	4-2	7-2
#23 USC	4-2	7-3
#26 Arizona	3-3	6-3
#47 Utah	1-5	4-5
#98 Colorado	0-6	3-6

Things are a bit more complicated in the Pac-12 South with both head-of-the-pack Arizona State and second-place UCLA still controlling their own destinies. UCLA has an uphill climb though with Washington, Arizona State, and USC left on their schedule. USC could still win, though they've lost the head-to-head with Arizona State. Arizona could also still win, but being two games behind the Sun Devils and having lost against UCLA and USC, the scenarios in which the Cardinals win are unlikely. Here are the likeliest scenarios to the championship game open to each team:

Arizona State

• ASU wins out (against Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona).
• ASU loses only to UCLA, and UCLA loses to Washington or USC.
• ASU loses only to Arizona.
• ASU loses only to UCLA and Arizona, UCLA loses to Washington and USC, and USC loses to Stanford.

UCLA

• UCLA wins out.
• UCLA beats Arizona State and USC but loses to Washington, and ASU loses to Arizona.

USC

• USC wins out (against Stanford, Colorado, and UCLA) and Arizona State loses to UCLA and Arizona.
• USC loses only to Stanford, Arizona State loses to UCLA and Arizona, and UCLA beats Washington.

Arizona

• Arizona wins out (against Washington State, Oregon, and Arizona State), Arizona State loses to Oregon State, USC loses to UCLA and either Stanford or Colorado, and UCLA loses to Washington and Arizona State.
• Arizona wins out, Arizona State loses to UCLA, UCLA loses to Washington and USC, and USC loses to Stanford and Colorado.

The chances of Arizona winning their division, though better than Oregon State's, are still only about one in 16 million. The others have at least a one in 1,000 chance:

Championship Game

With the victor of the Pac-12 likely to finish 8-1 in the conference; with Stanford victorious over Arizona State, UCLA, and likely USC; with Oregon victorious over UCLA; and with Stanford and Oregon likely finishing ahead of Arizona State (and everyone else in the South) in the BCS; the victor of the Pac-12 North will almost certainly have home-field advantage in the title game.

Stanford and Oregon are the favorites in all possible match-ups with the math considering Oregon more strongly favored. Arizona State also has a decent chance of winning the Pac-12, especially if they play Stanford. Overall, the probabilities look like this:

So say hello to your probable Pac-12 champion:

Paloalto finished the Pac-12 title game with 142 rushing yards and 1 TD.

Week 11 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	+3	Baylor	81.3

Baylor takes the #1 spot after a statement 41-12 win over Oklahoma, their toughest opponent so far.

2

0

Florida State

80.2

The Seminoles cruised past Wake Forest, winning 59-3 and clinching a trip to the ACC title game.

3

0

Ohio State

80.0

The Buckeyes stay put at #3 after a bye week.

4

+1

Alabama

76.5

Bama pulled away from LSU in the second half on their way to a 38-17 victory and killing all but Auburn's chances in the SEC West.

5

-4

Oregon

75.8

Oregon falls to #5 after Stanford pulls off the upset, likely wresting the Pac-12 North away from the Ducks.

6	0	Missouri	66.8
7	+1	Stanford	65.8
8	-1	Auburn	65.5
9	0	Wisconsin	61.2
10	+1	Arizona State	58.2
11	-1	Clemson	57.1
12	+2	Georgia Tech	55.3
13	+2	South Carolina	52.3
14	+2	Michigan State	51.7
15	+4	Oklahoma State	51.3
16	-3	BYU	50.6
17	0	Louisville	50.2
18	+6	UCLA	49.3
19	+2	Northern Illinois	48.2
20	-8	Miami (FL)	47.9
21	+7	Washington	47.6
22	+3	Texas A&M	47.5
23	+4	USC	46.8
24	+2	UCF	46.4
25	-7	LSU	46.2

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#26) Arizona, (#31) Houston, (#32) Oklahoma

Teams worse than the average FCS team: (#121) Western Michigan, (#122) New Mexico State, (#123) Georgia State, (#124) Miami (OH), (#125) Southern Miss, (#126) FIU

Largest improvement in rank: +11 Buffalo pulled off their best game of the season with a 30-3 victory over MAC East contender Ohio.

Largest drop in rank: -16 Florida was the victim of this week's worst upset, losing to Vanderbilt at home for the first time since 1945.

Most consistent team: Pittsburgh retains this title after the Panthers edged Notre Dame by a touchdown, about what the math expected them to do.

Most inconsistent team: Old Dominion also retains their title, though their 21-point victory over Idaho is closer to expectations.

Conference Rankings:

Conference	Average
SEC	41.63
Pac-12	41.33
ACC	37.03
Big Ten	36.62
Big 12	33.35
American	24.52
Mountain West	21.76
Sun Belt	20.65
Conference USA	18.16
MAC	17.91

Games to watch next week:

(#7) Stanford at (#23) USC (8:00 PM ET, ABC) Both teams are still striving for the Pac-12 title. In this corner is the Stanford Cardinal, now the front-runner in the Pac-12 North after beating the Oregon Ducks last week. With USC and Cal left on Stanford's conference schedule, the Trojans are Oregon's best hope at spoiling Stanford's season. In the other corner are the USC Trojans, sitting behind Arizona State and UCLA in the Pac-12 South. A win over Stanford would help keep their dream alive, but what USC really needs is Arizona State to lose.

Line: Stanford by 9

(#12) Georgia Tech at (#11) Clemson (Thursday 7:30 PM ET, ESPN) Hard to believe after three straight losses in late September to early October, but Georgia Tech has hung in there and is now sitting atop ACC's Coastal Division. A win and losses by Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) would send the Yellow Jackets to the ACC Championship Game. Clemson will not be going to Tampa regardless, but wins here and against South Carolina at the end of the season would likely be enough for an at-large BCS bid.

Line: Georgia Tech by 11.5

(#21) Washington at (#18) UCLA (Friday 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2) UCLA still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South. Unfortunately, the Bruins face an uphill climb with Washington, Arizona State, and USC left on their schedule. If they lose to the Huskies, UCLA could still make it to the Pac-12 title game, but it becomes much less likely for them to do so.

Line: Washington by 2

(#28) Georgia at (#8) Auburn (3:30 PM ET, CBS) Both of these teams are behind, but could still make it to the SEC Championship. Georgia's chances are slim, as the Bulldogs need to win out and need Missouri to lose out. Auburn, on the other hand, still controls its own destiny. The Tigers could still make it if they lose to Georgia, but only as long as both they and Mississippi State beat Alabama.

Line: Auburn by 15.5