Top Six Bowls to Watch

(Note: Rankings didn't change much after Navy made it 13 straight in the Army-Navy game, not even for Army and Navy. Full rankings can be seen here.)

6. Outback Bowl: (14) Auburn vs. (12) Wisconsin
1/1 Noon EST, ESPN2

Auburn may be coming into the postseason at 8-4, but they've had the strongest schedule, having faced Kansas State and Georgia in addition to the entirety of the SEC West (the Toughest Division in College Football™). Of the twelve teams the Tigers played, seven of them ended up in our Top 25. Meanwhile, Wisconsin recovered from an early upset versus Northwestern to win the Big Ten West, only to get blown out by the Buckeyes in the championship.

Wisconsin relies on its running game, posting 314 rushing yards per game (4th in the FBS), and its defense, which holds opponents to 20.0 points per game (13th), to win. Auburn has a balanced offensive attack that earns 489 ypg (17th) and 35.8 ppg (23rd). Expect both teams' running backs to shine. Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon has run for 2,336 yards this season, the most in the FBS, and finished second in this year's Heisman balloting. Auburn's Cameron Artis-Payne is no slouch either, having rushed for 1,482 yards (15th).

Though the Tigers may look worse statistically than the Badgers, they've had to face tougher opponents. Look at the one opponent they have in common: Wisconsin lost to LSU 28-24, while Auburn crushed them 41-7. Auburn has been hardened in the crucible of the esseecee and will come up with the W on New Year's Day.

Line: Auburn by 4.5

5. Rose Bowl/CFP Semifinal: (6) Oregon vs. (13) Florida State
1/1 5 PM EST, ESPN

This should be a high-scoring offensive affair as this year's Heisman-winning quarterback will face off against last year's Heisman-winning quarterback. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota has the highest passing efficiency in the land (out of QBs averaging more than 14 attempts a game). Neither team's defense is great, but Oregon's offense is ranked 3rd in both points per game (46.3) and yards per game (546). The Ducks are poised to be the first team in over two years to get the best of the Seminoles.

Line: Oregon by 12

4. Orange Bowl: (5) Mississippi State vs. (8) Georgia Tech
12/31 8 PM EST, ESPN

Mississippi State finished 10-2 playing in the SEC West, the Toughest Division in College Football™, and the Bulldogs were in the running for the Playoff before losing to Ole Miss at the end of the regular season. Bulldog QB Dak Prescott heads a balanced offense that scores 37.2 ppg, while the Mississippi State defense is the 10th-stingiest, holding opponents to 19.4 ppg.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has one of the most rush-heavy offenses in the nation; the Yellow Jackets have the 3rd-best rushing offense at 334 ypg, but have the 7th-worst passing offense at 135 ypg. Unfortunately for Tech, Mississippi State's rushing defense ranks #25 and allows only 127 rushing ypg. Expect the Miami air to be permeated by the sound of cowbells on New Year's Eve.

Line: Mississippi State by 2.5

3. Peach Bowl: (11) Ole Miss vs. (3) TCU

12/31 12:30 PM EST, ESPN

This game should be a classic matchup between offense and defense. TCU's Big XII, 46.8-ppg (2nd in the FBS) offense will face Ole Miss's SEC, 13.8-papg (1st) defense. Both teams' offenses favor the pass under QBs Bo Wallace (Ole Miss) and Trevone Boykin (TCU). And while TCU puts up more passing yards, Ole Miss's passing defense is ranked 16th, holding their opponents to 188 ypg, while TCU's passing defense is 88th. Defense gives the Rebels the edge in this one.

Line: Ole Miss by 0.5

2. Cotton Bowl: (7) Michigan State vs. (4) Baylor
1/1 12:30 PM EST, ESPN

Baylor's offense is statistically the best in the country, posting 581 ypg and 48.8 ppg behind QB Bryce Petty. However, the Bears have needed their superpowered offense to win; their defense is outside the top 40 and allowed 97th-ranked Texas Tech to score a season-high 46 points. Their loss to West Virginia and the lack of clarity to the Big XII schedule ultimately kept Baylor out of the College Football Playoff.

Michigan State has a classic, Big-Ten defense, only allowing 19.9 points per game (12th in the FBS), though their 6th-ranked rushing defense won't be much good against Baylor's pass-heavy offense. The Spartans also have a quietly good offense featuring the trio of QB Connor Cook, WR Tony Lippett, and RB Jeremy Langford that has averaged 43.1 ppg (6th) and 497 ypg (13th). Sparty is coming into the postseason with a 10-2 record but those two losses were against teams that made it to the Playoff. Baylor will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after being excluded from the Playoff, but the Math is favoring the team with the less porous defense.

Line: MSU by 2

1. Sugar Bowl/CFP Semifinal: (1) Alabama vs. (2) Ohio State
1/1 8:30 PM EST, ESPN

Ohio State has had a high-powered offense this year, averaging 508 ypg (8th in the FBS) and 45.2 ppg (4th) despite playing four Top 25 defenses. The Bucks did lose to (57) Virginia Tech in Week 2, but then figured things out behind backup QB J.T. Barrett who averaged over 300 yards per game through the air and on the ground before getting injured in The Game. Even without Barrett, OSU demolished Wisconsin in the Big Ten final, winning 59-0 and securing their spot in the Playoff.

On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide has won defensively, allowing only 312 ypg (11th in the FBS) and 16.6 ppg (4th). Bama's biggest star offensively is WR Amari Cooper who averaged 14.4 yards per reception and finished third in the Heisman balloting this year. The Tide lost to Ole Miss in October, but closed strong, beating Mississippi State to take control of the SEC West, avenging last year's wild Iron Bowl loss against Auburn, and winning the SEC Championship against Mizzou.

Alabama is the consensus #1 and comes from the SEC West (the Toughest Division in College Football™) but Bama's vaunted defense hasn't faced a high-scoring offense like Ohio State's. The closest they've come is Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs averaged eight points fewer per game than OSU. Alabama gets the win, but it'll be closer than you think.

Line: Bama by 4

0. National Championship Game: Sugar Bowl Victor vs. Rose Bowl Victor
1/12 8:30 PM EST, ESPN

Of course you should watch the championship game. I'm not going to preview it though until we know who's playing.

Line: TBD

Week 15 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	0	Alabama	70.0

Alabama made it look easy against Mizzou, winning the SEC Championship 42-13. QB Blake Sims completed 85% of his pass attempts (an SEC Championship Game record) while the Bama defense forced four Missouri three and outs.

2

0

Ohio State

66.6

The Buckeyes dominated Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten title game. Third-string QB Cardale Jones threw for 257 yards and three TDs; the OSU defense limited Wisconsin's RB Melvin Gordon to just 76 yards and forced four turnovers, including a Gordon fumble.

3

+2

TCU

60.5

TCU manhandled Iowa State, scoring 31 unanswered points in the third quarter to win 55-3. QB Trevone Boykin threw for 460 yards, and the Horned Frog offense accounted for 722 total yards.

4

+2

Baylor

59.8

Kansas State kept it close, but the Bears came down with a fourth-quarter interception to cap off a 38-27 win over the Wildcats.

5

+2

Mississippi State

58.4

The Bulldogs stayed home on Saturday, but a Crimson Tide win improves their strength of schedule. I'm not sure they deserved to leap over Oregon, though.

6	-3	Oregon	58.2
7	+2	Michigan State	56.9
8	0	Georgia Tech	53.1
9	+2	Georgia	52.4
10	0	Marshall	52.4
11	+1	Ole Miss	51.7
12	-8	Wisconsin	51.5
13	0	Florida State	51.4
14	+1	Auburn	48.4
15	-1	Oklahoma	45.6
16	+2	Georgia Southern	45.4
17	+3	LSU	44.8
18	-2	Boise State	44.3
19	0	Kansas State	42.4
20	+4	Clemson	41.9
21	+4	Louisville	41.9
22	+1	Nebraska	41.5
23	-6	Missouri	41.4
24	-2	UCLA	41.3
25	+2	Arkansas	38.9

See full rankings here.

Who goes to the playoff?

Alabama will remain the consensus #1 after winning the SEC; Oregon's 51-13 victory over Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship will be enough to keep the Ducks in (although it's apparently not enough to keep the Math from dropping them to #6); and the Committee cannot keep an undefeated Power Five team out, even if the Seminoles haven't exactly looked dominant this season. Short of the Committee deciding that, no, we're going to have a six-team playoff this season, that leaves one spot for three one-loss, Power Five teams.

TCU and Baylor are in an awkward sort of tie. The two teams split the Big XII title, and though Baylor beat TCU in the head-to-head, TCU has looked more dominant over the whole season, beating their conference opponents by an average of almost 23 points compared to Baylor's 16. (Note that, because of the structure of the Big XII, TCU and Baylor had the same conference opponents, with the obvious exception that nobody played themselves.) Neither team had a particularly demonstrative win on Saturday. TCU beat bottom-feeding Iowa State 55-3 in a game the Math expected them to win by 56; Baylor won a hard-fought match against Kansas State by 11, though the Math gave the Bears a 15.5-point line.

Compare that to Ohio State who came into the Big Ten title game with their first- and second-string QBs out with injuries and with both the Math and Vegas considering them 4-point underdogs. The Buckeyes responded with a 59-0 shutout of the Badgers. The OSU defense limited the 4th-best rushing offense in the country to just 71 rushing yards, while on the other side of the ball, their third-string QB Cardale Jones threw for 257 yards, three TDs, and no INTs. Given that the Bucks had the most dominant performance this Championship Week and that it allows the Committee to sidestep the question of whether TCU or Baylor is more deserving, the Buckeyes should get the final spot in the Playoff. 

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (31) Arizona lost to Oregon when it mattered most, losing the Pac-12 title game 51-13.

Teams worse than the average FCS team:

• (127) Eastern Michigan finished their season 2-10 last week, but changes to the SoS calculation drop them below the FCS this week.
• (128) SMU finally came up with a win this week against UConn, avoiding a winless season, enough to lift them to #128, but not enough to look better than an FCS team.
• (129) Georgia State's season also ended last week, and they remain sub-FCS.

Largest improvement in rank: +9 Northern Illinois easily bested Bowling Green to win the MAC crown for the third time in four years.

Largest drop in rank: -10 Arizona lost the Pac-12 title game to Oregon 51-13.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	39.11
Big XII	30.69
ACC	30.46
Big Ten	30.43
Pac-12	29.17
Independent	26.16
Mountain West	19.64
Conference USA	18.90
American	17.12
Sun Belt	16.10
MAC	13.73

Game to watch next week:

(41) Navy vs. (93) Army (3 PM EST, CBS) Navy has won the last twelve games in this series, and next week's matchup will likely be no different. Navy has won by an average of 4.5 points per game this season, while Army has lost by an average of 8 points per game against a weaker set of opponents, including a 6-point overtime loss to Yale. The Navy's official blog is wondering when they can start calling this the Navy-Army game.
Line: Navy by 22

Week 14 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	0	Alabama	69.0

Alabama won the Iron Bowl, going from throwing three interceptions in the first half to scoring three unanswered touchdowns in the second half to beat Auburn 55-44.

2

+1

Ohio State

62.9

The Buckeyes won this year's edition of the Game 42-28. The Wolverines kept it close until the fourth quarter before an all-too-familiar Michigan turnover drove the final nail into the Wolverines' coffin.

3

+4

Oregon

61.3

Oregon cracks into the Top Five for the first time since Week 4 as the Ducks easily defeat Oregon State 47-19 in the Civil War. Heisman hopeful Marcus Mariota threw for four touchdowns and ran for two more in the win.

4

+2

Wisconsin

60.9

The Badgers ended Minnesota's dream season, beating the Gophers 34-24, keeping Paul Bunyan's Axe, and earning a spot in the Big Ten title game.

5

+4

TCU

60.5

The Horned Frogs' defense plagued Texas on Thanksgiving, forcing six(!) turnovers in a 48-10 win.

6	-2	Baylor	60.1
7	-5	Mississippi State	59.7
8	+3	Georgia Tech	58.6
9	+1	Michigan State	58.4
10	-5	Marshall	54.4
11	-3	Georgia	53.9
12	+2	Ole Miss	53.2
13	+2	Florida State	51.9
14	-1	Oklahoma	51.3
15	-3	Auburn	49.5
16	+3	Boise State	48.0
17	+1	Missouri	46.9
18	-1	Georgia Southern	46.8
19	+1	Kansas State	46.5
20	+2	LSU	46.2
21	0	Arizona	45.4
22	-6	UCLA	44.5
23	+2	Nebraska	43.7
24	+3	Clemson	43.4
25	-1	Louisville	43.3

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (27) Arkansas ends their SEC win streak at two after another fourth-quarter collapse leads to a 21-14 loss to Mizzou.

Teams worse than the average FCS team:

• (128) Georgia State ends the season at 1-11 after a 54-31 loss to Texas State.
• (129) SMU is still winless after a 35-9 loss to Houston but has a decent chance to win next week against a 2-9 UConn.

Largest improvement in rank: +13 North Carolina State easily handled North Carolina, winning 35-7 in a game where they were a slight underdog.

Largest drop in rank: -15 Rice was embarrassed by Louisiana Tech, losing 76-31. The Owls allowed five unanswered touchdowns in the second half.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	40.40
Pac-12	32.36
Big XII	31.94
Big Ten	31.92
ACC	31.83
Mountain West	21.75
Conference USA	20.11
American	18.32
Sun Belt	17.05
MAC	14.72

Games to watch this week: This upcoming week is Championship Week, when the four participants in the first College Football Playoff will be decided. There are six Power Five teams left with one loss or less, and five of them are playing two-loss teams in championship or de facto championship games. Which of the Power Five conferences will be left out? Will a two-loss team break their way in? These questions will be answered based on the results of these games:

Big Ten Championship: (4) Wisconsin vs. (2) Ohio State (8:17 PM EST, Fox) We start in the Big Ten with what looks like the closest of this week's games. The Badgers feature a rush-heavy offense, posting 334 rushing yards per game (3rd in the FBS), largely on the legs of Heisman-contending running back Melvin Gordon. Gordon leads the FBS in rushing yards on the season and just set the Big Ten season record. Meanwhile, Ohio State has had a balanced offense under QB J.T. Barrett and is 11th in total yards per game and 5th in points per game. However, Wisconsin's defense is stiff, only allowing 260 yards per game (2nd in the FBS) and 16.8 points per game (4th). Both Gordon and Barrett came out of their games due to ankle injuries last week, but Gordon is likely to play with a tweaked ankle while Barrett is out for the rest of the season with a broken one. Overall, I think the two-loss team has the edge in this one.

Line: Wisconsin by 3.5

SEC Championship: (1) Alabama vs. (17) Missouri (4 PM EST, CBS) The SEC Championship has been dominated in recent years by the Western division. The last time a team from the East won, Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer were still at Florida, and George W. Bush was still in the White House. Expect the West's domination to continue on Saturday. The SEC West looks like the best division in college football right now with five teams in our Top 25 (compared to the East's two), and is represented in the Championship Game by the team most people consider to be the best in the country. Their opponent lost to an Indiana team that finished the season 4-8. Expect at least one one- or no-loss team to lose next week, but be shocked if the Crimson Tide is one of them.

Line: Alabama by 22.5

Pac-12 Championship: (21) Arizona vs. (3) Oregon (Friday 9 PM EST, Fox) The Ducks had clinched the Pac-12 North three weeks ago, but it wasn't until Saturday, after Arizona beat Arizona State and Stanford upset UCLA, that the Wildcats knew they would be representing the South. Both teams win with high-powered offenses that favor the passing game; the last time these two teams met, they accounted for 941 total yards of offense. Oregon looks better on paper--the Ducks are 4th in ypg and 4th in ppg, while Arizona is 22nd and 19th, respectively--but the Wildcats won the last two contests against the Ducks, including Oregon's only regular season loss, a 31-24 upset in Eugene. Will Oregon get their revenge Friday night, or will Arizona make it three in a row?

Line: Oregon by 15

ACC Championship: (13) Florida State vs. (8) Georgia Tech (8 PM EST, ABC) Both of these teams have managed to win by an average margin of only 12 or 13 points against a relatively weak ACC schedule. (The only other Top 25-caliber teams in the ACC are (24) Clemson and (25) Louisville.) The difference is that Florida State gets it done through the air (FSU is in the top 25 for passing yards per game and the bottom 25 for rushing yards per game), while Georgia Tech gets their yards on the ground (the reverse applies for the Yellow Jackets). Oh, and the Seminoles have managed to come from behind several times to finish the regular season 12-0, while Georgia Tech has fallen twice (to Duke and North Carolina). The Math is perhaps overrating Tech because it favors the rushing game, but this game will still be one more test that the Seminoles must pass if they want to convince the Committee that they belong in the College Football Playoff.

Line: Georgia Tech by 19

Sort of Big XII championship: (19) Kansas State at (6) Baylor (7:45 PM EST, ESPN) The Big Twelve is no longer large enough to have a conference championship game ("Every game matters. Ten teams, nine games, one true champion," as they proudly spun it earlier this season), but this one should suffice. Baylor and K State--along with TCU--are still in contention for the top spot. Even though both the Math and the Committee have ranked the Bears lower than TCU, Baylor has already won the head-to-head and needs only to win this game to win the Big XII. Meanwhile, TCU needs a Baylor loss and to win against lowly Iowa State; K State needs to beat Baylor and the mother of all upsets in a TCU loss. However, if Baylor does not have a demonstrative win over the Wildcats on Saturday, we may see the Committee send the second-place Big Twelve team to the Playoffs while the champion stays out.

Line: Baylor by 15.5