Sunday, December 9, 2012

Top Bowls to Watch

11. Gator Bowl: #35 Mississippi State vs. #27 Northwestern (1 January, Noon ET, ESPN2)
The feisty 9-3 Wildcats give the B1G the best chance of winning a bowl this season. But don't count the Bulldogs out either. Though their 8-4 record is slightly worse than Northwestern's, they had to play Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M instead of a weak Big Ten.
Line: Mississippi State by 2
10. Orange Bowl: #16 Northern Illinois vs. #9 Florida State (1 January, 8:30 ET, ESPN)
It's nice to see the little guy rewarded. The NIU Huskies have been at or near the top of the MAC for the last couple years and have had successful bowl outings against Fresno State and Arkansas State during that period as well. Florida State, however, is a completely different bowl opponent. Though I suspect a lot of people will be rooting for the underdog, a Seminole team many expected to go to the National Championship will prove too much for the Huskies.
Line: Florida State by 13.5
9. Capital One Bowl: #8 Georgia vs. #21 Nebraska (1 January, 1 ET, ABC)
Call it the Consolation Bowl. After losing their respective conference championships, these teams are here instead of the National Championship or the Rose Bowl. The difference is that Georgia was one play away from beating the mighty Alabama, and Nebraska was exposed by a ho-hum Wisconsin squad.
Line: Georgia by 9.5
8. Rose Bowl: #37 Wisconsin vs. #11 Stanford (1 January, 5 ET, ESPN)
The bowl worries for the Big Ten continue as a Wisconsin team that won the Big Ten on Ohio State's and Penn State's ineligibility (okay, and an impressive revenge win against Nebraska) faces a Stanford team that wrested the Pac-12 title away from Oregon and is considered to be one of the best two-loss teams in the country.
Line: Stanford by 6.5
7. Outback Bowl: #12 South Carolina vs. #26 Michigan (1 January, 1 ET, ESPN)
Both of these teams have had a somewhat disappointing season. Both had a decent chance to go to their conference championships, but a loss to Florida or Nebraska effectively closed the door on them. Both will be playing with something to prove.
Line: South Carolina by 3.5
6. Holiday Bowl: #36 Baylor vs. #24 UCLA (27 December, 9:45 ET, ESPN)
This could prove to be an exciting game, featuring two unpredictable teams with monkey-wrench-throwing seasons. In this corner, Baylor who dealt Kansas State their sole loss, but was also blown out by TCU. In the other corner, UCLA who took control of the Pac-12 South by beating Arizona State and USC, but also lost big to Cal. Which incarnation of each team will show up to San Diego?
Line: Baylor by 0.5
5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: #13 LSU vs. #15 Clemson (31 December, 7:30 ET, ESPN)
The 10-2 Tigers barred from their conference championship simply because their division happens to contain one of the best teams in the country face the 10-2 Tigers barred from their conference championship simply because their division happens to contain one of the best teams in the country.
Line: LSU by 2
4. Alamo Bowl: #23 Texas vs. #14 Oregon State (29 December, 6:45 ET, ESPN)
A great match-up against two teams that started off surprisingly strong before getting visited by Chinua Achebe. All right, it wasn't quite that bad. These are two great teams who just had the misfortune of having to play Kansas State & Oklahoma or Oregon & Stanford.
Line: Oregon State by 4.5
3. BCS National Championship: #4 Notre Dame vs. #1 Alabama (7 January, 8:30 ET, ESPN)
Let's be frank. This game isn't ranked higher on this list because the math and I are still not convinced that Notre Dame is the best team in the country. But who knows? Maybe the luck of the Irish will continue and the crystal football will be going to South Bend. Eugh, I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
Line: Alabama by 10.5
2. Cotton Bowl: #5 Texas A&M vs. #7 Oklahoma (4 January, 8 ET, Fox)
What a fantastic match-up with fantastic story-lines. Not only will this game decide who the best 2-loss team is, it will also decide what noun we get to put after Johnny Manziel's (AKA Johnny Football AKA Johnny Heisman) name for the next month.
Line: Texas A&M by 1
1. Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. #3 Kansas State (3 January, 8:30 ET, ESPN)
Remember that week after Alabama's loss to Texas A&M, when it was an open question whether Oregon or Kansas State should be ranked #1? NOW WE GET TO FIND OUT. The victor of this game gets the bronze in my book, maybe even silver.
Line: Oregon by 5.5

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Week 14 Rankings

Your Top 25:



Rk
Δ
Team
Points
1
0
Alabama
60.8




The Crimson Tide edge out Georgia 32-28 for the SEC championship. Alabama loses some points, as they were one incomplete pass away from losing, but maintains their #1 spot. Their invite to the National Championship is well deserved.

2
0
Oregon
60.5




Oregon did not play this week, but the Ducks added a full point as their strength of schedule improves after Oregon State's walloping of Nicholls State.

3
+1
Kansas State
55.4

Kansas State takes back their #3 spot after beating Texas 42-24.

4
-1
Notre Dame
55.1

Notre Dame drops a spot after not playing this week. As I've said before, even though they're ranked #4, the Irish deserve to go to the National Championship as the only eligible undefeated team.

5
0
Texas A&M
50.1

The Aggies stay put after not playing this week.

6
+1
Florida
49.6
7
+1
Oklahoma
49.2
8
-2
Georgia
46.6
9
+1
Ohio State
46.6
10
-1
Florida State
46.5
11
0
Stanford
44.9
12
+1
South Carolina
42.5
13
-1
LSU
42.4
14
+4
Oregon State
41.3
15
-1
Clemson
40.8
16
+3
Utah State
38.0
17
0
Northern Illinois
37.9
18
+6
Boise State
35.5
19
+3
Fresno State
35.4
20
-4
Oklahoma State
35.3
21
-6
Nebraska
35.3
22
+1
San Jose State
35.1
23
-3
Texas
34.2
24
-3
UCLA
34.0
25
+8
Arkansas State
32.4

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#26) Michigan

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Largest improvement in rank: +11 Wisconsin: After making it to the Big Ten Championship on Ohio State's and Penn State's ineligibility, the Badgers shock Nebraska 70-31.

Largest drop in rank: -13 Middle Tennessee: The Blue Raiders were playing for the Sun Belt title until they were crushed by Arkansas State 45-0.

Most consistent team: USC did not play this week and thus retains this title.

Most inconsistent team: Ditto for Arizona.

Conference Rankings: (Based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference
Average
Big 12
14.42
SEC
11.29
Pac-12
8.62
Big Ten
3.22
ACC
0.91
Big East
-2.14
Sun Belt
-3.73
Mountain West
-6.49
WAC
-7.79
Conference USA
-9.07
MAC
-12.12

Games to watch next week:

(#60) Navy vs. (#116) Army (3:00 ET, CBS) The storied Navy-Army game is the last before the bowls. Line: Navy by 18.