Sunday, October 26, 2014

Week 9 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Namaste.

Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Mississippi State
74.4

Kentucky threatened to upset for most of the game, but the Bulldogs pulled off the 45-31 win, as RB Josh Robinson broke tackles and juked defenders on his way to 198 rushing yards.


2
+1
Alabama
69.5

Alabama easily handled the Vols in Knoxville, winning 34-20, in a rivalry game that has not been competitive recently. WR Amari Cooper set a program record posting 224 receiving yards in the win.

3
+1
Auburn
69.0

The Tigers won a surprisingly close seesaw game against South Carolina, winning 42-35 after the Gamecocks' last-second Hail Mary wasn't answered.

4
+1
Georgia
63.4

Georgia rises to #4 after enjoying a bye week with a side of Ole Miss loss.

5
-3
Ole Miss
63.2

The Rebs suffered their first loss of the season in Death Valley after LSU put together a fourth-quarter, 95-yard touchdown drive, and a dumb delay-of-game penalty put the game-tying field goal out of reach.

6
+1
Michigan State
59.0
7
-1
Marshall
58.4
8
+1
Nebraska
57.3
9
-1
Ohio State
55.9
10
+2
TCU
53.4
11
+3
LSU
52.2
12
-1
Oregon
51.6
13
-3
Baylor
51.4
14
+5
Georgia Southern
50.6
15
0
Kansas State
49.3
16
-3
Notre Dame
48.6
17
-1
Oklahoma
47.7
18
+7
Wisconsin
47.4
19
-1
Utah
47.0
20
-3
Florida State
46.6
21
+8
Georgia Tech
46.2
22
-2
Clemson
46.0
23
-2
Louisville
44.0
24
0
Arizona
43.3
25
-3
UCLA
43.2


Teams falling out of the Top 25: USC falls to #33 after losing 24-21 at Utah.

Teams worse than the average FCS team: SMU declines to 0-7 after a 48-10 home loss to Memphis.

Largest improvement in rank: +22 Navy's 41-31 win over San Jose State wasn't impressive in and of itself, but the Midshipmen rushing for 423 yards was, bringing Navy up to #44.

Largest drop in rank: -15 Arkansas State lost 55-40 to the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and was out-rushed by 166 yards. Meanwhile, Maryland was steamrolled 52-7 by Wisconsin, only posting 175 yards of offense to the Badgers' 527.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
44.91
Pac-12
32.98
ACC
32.52
Big Ten
32.28
Big 12
31.68
Mountain West
21.17
Conference USA
20.86
American
18.06
Sun Belt
16.75
MAC
13.92

Games to watch next week:

(#3) Auburn at (#5) Ole Miss (7:00 PM EDT, ESPN) Both teams had below-average performances this week with the Rebels losing to LSU and Auburn barely beating the Gamecocks at home. Both teams now have one loss in conference and need to win this game to stay in contention for the top spot in the SEC West. Auburn is at a disadvantage in their quest to claw their way back to the top having already lost the head-to-head to current leader Mississippi State. I'd give Auburn the edge on Saturday, though, in a close game at Oxford.
Line: Auburn by 6.5

(#29) Arkansas at (#1) Mississippi State (7:15 PM EDT, ESPN2) The other SEC West matchup also makes the list of games to watch. Though Arkansas is 0-4 in conference, don't count the Razorbacks out. Arkansas had kept it close against A&M and Alabama and crawled back from being dominated by Georgia. Expect Arkansas to pull off an upset sometime this season, but don't expect it against the Bulldogs in Starkville next week.
Line: Mississippi State by 13.5

(#10) TCU at (#30) West Virginia (3:30 PM EDT, ABC/ESPN2) West Virginia has really turned things around. The Mountaineers went from going 4-8 last year, including a dismal 2-7 in conference, to contending for the Big Twelve title this year. However, West Virginia is hosting TCU, the highest-scoring team in the country (averaging 50.4 points per game, including 82 against Texas Tech last Saturday) and probably the best team in the Big XII. (Sure, Kansas State is the only team in the Big 12 right now with no losses in conference, but the Wildcats have yet to play TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor.) Advantage: TCU
Line: TCU by 8.5

(#19) Utah at (#28) Arizona State (11:00 PM EDT, Fox Sports 1) Arizona State has quietly made their way to the top of the Pac-12 South, but Utah is only half a game behind after a wild win over USC in Salt Lake City. Utah hasn't beaten Arizona State since 1976, but the Utes have a decent chance this year. It's hard to tell what will happen in the Pac-12 South, but another wild game is to be expected.
Line: Utah by 3.5

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Week 8 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Mississippi State
76.1

The Bulldogs remain at #1 following a bye week.

2
+1
Ole Miss
72.5

Ole Miss rises to #2 after making it look easy against Tennessee. The Rebs won 34-3 after the defense forced four turnovers and held the Vols to zero rushing yards.

3
+3
Alabama
71.2

The Crimson Tide came out swinging on Saturday, crushing Texas A&M 59-0 while posting 602 total yards in a balanced offensive attack, keeping Bama in the mix for the leadership of the SEC West.

4
-2
Auburn
70.2

Auburn had a bye week but fell to #4 after being leapfrogged by Ole Miss and Bama.

5
0
Georgia
65.1

Georgia rounds out an all-SEC Top Five after a 45-32 win over Arkansas. The Dawg defense forced four Razorback turnovers, while RB Nick Chubb ran for 202 yards and two touchdowns.

6
+1
Marshall
62.3
7
+3
Michigan State
58.3
8
+4
Ohio State
56.8
9
+2
Nebraska
56.6
10
-6
Baylor
53.0
11
+4
Oregon
51.9
12
+1
TCU
50.8
13
-4
Notre Dame
50.1
14
+3
LSU
50.0
15
+7
Kansas State
49.3
16
-8
Oklahoma
49.2
17
+1
Florida State
48.9
18
+3
Utah
47.8
19
-3
Georgia Southern
47.3
20
+4
Clemson
46.9
21
+2
Louisville
45.8
22
+5
UCLA
45.3
23
+9
USC
43.7
24
+9
Arizona
43.0
25
+1
Wisconsin
42.5

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (#29) Georgia Tech (lost at UNC 48-43)
  • (#32) Texas A&M (lost at Alabama 59-0)
  • (#33) Boston College (lost vs. Clemson 17-13)
  • (#35) Arkansas (lost vs. Georgia 45-32)
Team worse than the average FCS team: SMU fell to 0-6 after a 41-3 loss to Cincinnati. The Mustangs are dead last in the FBS in both points scored and points allowed and are third to last in rushing yards per game.

Largest improvement in rank: +17 Appalachian State bounced back from an OT loss to FCS Liberty last week by running over the Troy Trojans in Troy, winning 53-14.

Largest drop in rank: -18 Florida and Texas A&M both fall 18 spots after getting embarrassed by Missouri and Alabama, respectively.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
46.65
Pac-12
35.05
ACC
34.22
Big Ten
34.17
Big 12
33.25
Conference USA
22.33
Mountain West
22.18
American
19.21
Sun Belt
17.30
MAC
15.03

Games to watch next week:

(#2) Ole Miss at (#14) LSU (7:15 PM EDT, ESPN) LSU has struggled so far this year in an SEC West division stacked with talent. And though LSU's losses to Mississippi State and Auburn are likely enough to take them out of the running of the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers can still play spoilers to Ole Miss next week, especially if the Rebs are thinking about the following week's game against Auburn.
Line: Ole Miss by 9.5

(#23) USC at (#18) Utah (10:00 PM EDT, TBA) Oy vey, what a season in the Pac-12. No team remains undefeated, and nothing goes according to prediction (except that Colorado will lose). USC has won games against Stanford and Arizona that they were supposed to lose and has lost games against Arizona State and Boston College that they were supposed to win. Meanwhile, Utah squeaked by UCLA, lost to Wazzou, and needed two overtimes to top Oregon State. The upshot is that both the Trojans and the Utes have one loss in conference, and anybody (except Colorado) can still win the Pac-12 South. Hopefully, this week will clarify things. Probably not, though.
Line: Utah by 3.5

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Week 7 Rankings

Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
+1
Mississippi State
69.5

The Math and the AP agree for the first time since Week 1, putting the Bulldogs at the top after their 38-23 upset over Auburn in Starkville.

2
-1
Auburn
63.6

Auburn doesn't fall far though. Despite their 15-point loss, almost of all of the statistics--4 vs. 4 turnovers, 232 vs. 223 rushing yards, 16 vs. 15 first downs, etc.--indicate a much closer game.

3
0
Ole Miss
60.2

The Rebels pulled off the upset against Texas A&M, winning 35-20 in College Station. Though A&M QB Kenny Hill passed for 401 yards, Hill's three turnovers, two of which were immediately converted to Ole Miss touchdowns, were what ultimately cost the Aggies the game.

4
0
Baylor
56.3

Baylor had their biggest test of the season thus far on Saturday and passed, though not with flying colors. The Bears overcame a 21-point, fourth-quarter deficit to beat TCU 61-58 in a defense-optional game.

5
+4
Georgia
55.4

Even without suspended RB and Heisman hopeful Todd Gurley, the Bulldogs shut out Mizzou 34-0. Georgia forced five Tiger turnovers, and Mizzou never managed to convert on third down.

6
-1
Alabama
55.1
7
+1
Marshall
53.0
8
-2
Oklahoma
50.2
9
+2
Notre Dame
47.5
10
+7
Michigan State
46.3
11
+4
Nebraska
45.6
12
0
Ohio State
44.8
13
-6
TCU
43.4
14
-4
Texas A&M
43.0
15
+8
Oregon
41.8
16
+4
Georgia Southern
40.9
17
+10
LSU
40.4
18
+8
Florida State
40.4
19
-6
Georgia Tech
39.2
20
-6
Arkansas
39.1
21
+1
Utah
38.9
22
+3
Kansas State
38.6
23
-4
Louisville
38.5
24
+11
Clemson
37.8
25
+15
Boston College
37.7


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (#27) UCLA (lost vs. Oregon 42-30)
  • (#29) Florida (lost vs. LSU 30-27)
  • (#31) BYU (lost at UCF 31-24)
  • (#33) Arizona (lost vs. USC 28-26)

Teams worse than the average FCS team:

  • (#127) UNLV (beat Fresno State 30-27)
  • (#128) New Mexico State (lost at Troy 41-24)
  • (#129) SMU (bye)

Largest improvement in rank: +18 Washington bounced back from a home loss to Stanford by dominating Cal 31-7, while Arkansas State similarly drubbed Georgia State 52-10.

Largest drop in rank: -30 Northern Illinois lost 34-17 to a middling Central Michigan team, the Huskies' first home loss since September 2009.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
41.63
ACC
29.09
Pac-12
29.00
Big 12
28.94
B1G
28.65
Conference USA
17.86
Mountain West
16.68
American
15.06
Sun Belt
13.09
MAC
10.79

Games to watch next week:

(#5) Georgia at (#20) Arkansas (4 PM EDT, SEC) Arkansas may be 0-3 in conference and at the bottom of the SEC West, but don't discount the Razorbacks. Two of their losses were close (in OT to Texas A&M and by one missed extra point to Alabama), and it's not ridiculous to think that Arkansas could upset a Georgia team sitting atop the SEC East when the Bulldogs come to Fayetteville.
Line: Arkansas by 3

(#9) Notre Dame at (#18) Florida State (8 PM EDT, ABC) I'm going to come right out and say it: Both of these teams are overrated. The AP has these teams an average of ten places higher than where the Math does. Though both are undefeated, each team has only had one real test (Stanford for ND and Clemson for FSU) that they barely passed. Meanwhile, they've struggled in their other games and haven't been able to run the ball (ND is 69th in rushing yards per game; FSU, 98th). The brightest spot about this game may be that we can all stop talking about whoever loses.
Line: Notre Dame by 5

(#14) Texas A&M at (#6) Alabama (3:30 PM EDT, CBS) When all seven SEC West teams are in the Top 25, at least one SEC West matchup is going to be one of the games to watch each week. This week features the Aggies and the Tide fighting for survival while Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Auburn enjoy a gimme against Kentucky, a relatively easy time hosting Tennessee, and a bye week, respectively. It's still relatively early in the season, but it's hard to see how the loser of this game has a chance to win the SEC West, particularly an Aggie squad trying to recover from a one-two punch delivered with emphasis from the Magnolia State.
Line: Alabama by 15