Week 1 Preview: A Full Weekend of Games

Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham [Thomas Graning/AP]

(15) Washington vs. (11) Auburn (3:30 PM EDT, ABC)

Both Washington and Auburn had 10-win seasons that sputtered at the end. Washington's November loss at Stanford kept the Huskies out of the Pac-12 Championship, and while Auburn beat Alabama to win the SEC West, they lost the SEC Championship to Georgia. Both made New Year's Six bowls, but both lost: Washington to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, Auburn to UCF in the Peach Bowl. Auburn returns to the site of their last two losses on Saturday, but I expect the Tigers to win this time around. Both teams have stout defenses, ranking in the Top 15 in total defense last year, but I expect Auburn's pass game to get around the Husky defense, which is better at stopping the run.

Line: Auburn by 4.5

(17) FAU at (9) Oklahoma (Noon EDT, Fox)

Florida Atlantic had a great season last year. They won all of their conference games, beat Akron in the bowl game held in their own stadium, and finished sixth in rushing offense. But Oklahoma also had a great season last year. Despite an early loss to Iowa State, the Sooners won the Big XII, made the playoff, and had the country's most productive offense. Against stiffer competition, the Sooners finished 12-2 in comparison to FAU's 11-3. In fact, in the 18 years that FAU has had a football program, they've never had a win-loss record better than Oklahoma's. This should be an interesting, offense-heavy, David-and-Goliath match, but the smart money always bets on Goliath.

Line: Oklahoma by 10

(30) Miami (FL) vs. (33) LSU (Sunday 7:30 PM EDT, ABC)

Don't let last year's win-loss records fool you. Miami had a fantastic year - being ranked as high as #2 in the AP Poll after their blowout win over Notre Dame - until they didn't. They lost at Pitt the last week of the regular season, lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship, lost to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. And frankly, it felt like the Hurricanes got lucky before that, eking out one-score wins against Florida State in a down year, Georgia Tech, and UNC. Meanwhile, LSU's 2017 was up and down. They lost to Troy but beat Auburn. (Enough said.) But LSU's defense was 12th in the country last year. The Tigers finished 9-4, only one game worse than the Canes, and the SEC West is a bit tougher than the ACC Coastal. Don't look at the official rankings; expect a close game Sunday night at Jerryworld.

Line: Miami by 1

You should also watch:

(19) Army at (35) Duke (Friday 7 PM EDT, ESPNU)
Line: Army by 4

(28) Virginia Tech at (27) Florida State (Monday 8 PM EDT, ESPN)
Line: Florida State by 4

(13) Michigan at (6) Notre Dame (7:30 PM EDT, NBC)
Line: Notre Dame by 16

(22) Louisville at (2) Alabama (8 PM EDT, ABC)
Line: Alabama by 18.5

(38) San Diego State at (32) Stanford (Friday 9 PM EDT, FS1)
Line: Stanford by 6

Meaningless Preseason Rankings

Yes, I know technically, four games were played last weekend, but we're going to ignore them for now (You're welcome, Colorado State.) and present the 2018 Meaningless Preseason Rankings.

Your Top 25:

The face of a man sorry to be in this situation [Jeffrey Becker/USA Today Sports]

Rk	Team	Score
1	Ohio State	45.4

Ohio State continues the Big Ten's not-so-proud tradition of failing to take enough action following a terrible thing and then totally mishandling the response once said terrible thing and failure to act come to light. However, notwithstanding his 3ish-week suspension, Urban Meyer has led the Buckeyes to 11-2 or better since his hire, and OSU promises to be good (at football, at least) this year too.

2

Alabama

42.3

Speaking of being good and likely continuing to be good, Alabama seems to lose only one game per year. Sometimes they lose to Clemson in the National Championship. Sometimes they lose to Ole Miss but still win the SEC and the National Championship. Sometimes they lose to Auburn, thereby losing the SEC West and not getting to play in the National Championship. Sometimes they lose to Auburn, lose the SEC West, still get invited to the Playoff, and end up winning the National Championship. Which will it be this year?

3

Wisconsin

42.2

Wisconsin plays classic, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, Big Ten football, winning on the ground and with a stout defense. Lee Corso picked the Badgers to win the National Championship this year. Not so my fast, my friend. While I expect Scott Frost not to resuscitate Nebraska in a single season and Wisconsin will once again win the Big Ten West, they'll have to get past the East's contender just to get an invitation, something they have not done despite making it to the B1G Championship three out of the last four years.

4

Penn State

41.1

James Franklin has returned the Nittany Lions to contendership, winning the Big Ten in 2016 and falling one game short of winning the division in 2017. Penn State's scoring offense and scoring defense both ranked in the Top Ten last year, and their turnover margin at +12 was just outside the Top Ten. We'll see if Penn State can fight their way to the top of a division with four talented teams this year.

5

Notre Dame

40.2

Notre Dame finished last season with a 10-3 record and seventh place in rushing yardage, even with a strong schedule that included Georgia, Miami (FL), and USC. But they are immediately tested this year hosting Michigan in Week One.

6	Clemson	40.0
7	Georgia	39.9
8	Oklahoma	36.8
9	Navy	36.5
10	Auburn	36.4
11	Michigan State	34.5
12	Michigan	34.2
13	MS State	34.1
14	Washington	34.0
15	TCU	33.9
16	Florida Atlantic	33.8
17	Northwestern	33.7
18	Army	33.7
19	UCF	33.4
20	OK State	33.3
21	Louisville	33.1
22	Iowa	33.1
23	Georgia Tech	33.0
24	NC State	32.3
25	Wake Forest	32.1

Full rankings can be found here.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Avg.
Big 10	30.1
ACC	29.2
Big 12	26.4
SEC	25.4
Pac-12	23.1
American	21.6
Mountain West	19.1
MAC	16.9
C-USA	15.2
Sun Belt	14.1