Sunday, October 27, 2013

Week 9 Rankings

Your Top 25:




Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Oregon
88.6

Oregon stays at #1, beating UCLA 42-14, perhaps less than might have been hoped for by Ducks fans. But with Stanford's victory over Oregon State, Oregon is now the only Pac-12 team with a perfect conference record.

2
0
Baylor
79.8

Baylor easily rolled over Kansas, 59-14. The Bears are scoring an FBS-best 63.9 points per game.

3
+3
Ohio State
76.7

The Buckeyes balloon to third after crushing Penn State, 63-14. The Nittany Lions have not lost that badly since the '90s. The 1890s.

4
0
Alabama
76.5

Bama wins the Third Fourth Saturday in October, 45-10.

5
-2
Florida State
76.2

The Seminoles sink slightly after only beating a subpar North Carolina State team 49-17 at home. Notice though that Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida State are all neck-and-neck around 76.5 points.

6
-1
Missouri
63.6
7
0
Miami (FL)
63.5
8
+1
Auburn
62.8
9
-1
Stanford
61.8
10
+1
BYU
58.5
11
-1
Wisconsin
55.5
12
+6
Georgia Tech
54.7
13
+3
Clemson
53.4
14
-1
LSU
52.8
15
-1
Louisville
52.5
16
-1
Arizona State
51.8
17
+3
South Carolina
51.4
18
+5
Houston
50.5
19
+8
Arizona
49.6
20
+4
Oklahoma State
49.2
21
+8
Michigan State
49.2
22
+4
Oklahoma
48.8
23
-11
Virginia Tech
47.3
24
-3
Northern Illinois
47.0
25
-3
UCF
46.6

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#26) UCLA, (#28) Michigan, (#31) Texas Tech

Teams worse than the average FCS team: (#121) Western Michigan, (#122) Southern Miss, (#123) Georgia State, (#124) Miami (OH), (#125) FIU, (#126) New Mexico State

Largest improvement in rank: +14 Kansas State rises after beating West Virginia 35-12.

Largest drop in rank: -14 Nebraska and Penn State: Nebraska falls after being upset by Minnesota, 34-23, the first time the Gophers have beaten Nebraska since 1960. Penn State falls after getting destroyed by Ohio State.

Most consistent team: Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to lose to Navy, but losing to the Midshipmen by 3 is not far off par.

Most inconsistent team: Kansas State's 23-point victory over West Virginia was close to average for the Wildcats, but they've still swung from losing to FCS North Dakota State to giving undefeated Baylor their biggest challenge yet.

Conference rankings:
Conference USA and the MAC continue to fight for worst league.
Conference
Average
SEC
43.02
Pac-12
42.35
ACC
38.05
Big Ten
36.83
Big 12
34.57
American
25.93
Sun Belt
22.13
MWC
21.43
C-USA
18.41
MAC
18.31

Games to watch next week:

(#7) Miami (FL) at (#5) Florida State (8:00 PM ET, ABC) This game is by far the best game on Saturday's slate. Two of the eight remaining undefeated teams face off, and they also happen to be intra-conference rivals. The losing team would likely be knocked out of national championship contention; the winning team will have a solid addition to their resume. And it's certainly possible that the loser may get their revenge in a repeat in the ACC title game. Line: Florida State by 19.5

Honorable mention:
  • (#28) Michigan at (#21) Michigan State (3:30 PM ET, ABC)
  • (#20) Oklahoma State at (#31) Texas Tech (7:00 PM ET, Fox)
  • (#34) Georgia vs. (#33) Florida (3:30 PM ET, CBS)

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Week 8 Rankings

Your Top 25:



Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Oregon
93.4

Oregon stays at #1 with a 62-38 victory over Washington State.

2
+1
Baylor
83.9

Baylor takes the #2 spot after whomping Iowa State 71-7 and out-rushing the Cyclones by 250 yards.

3
-1
Florida State
83.2

I'm not entirely sure how the Seminoles lost their #2 spot after beating Clemson 51-14 at Death Valley. They were out-rushed by Clemson by 2 yards, but the Noles' rushing offense is still on par with Alabama's and Texas A&M's. FSU is barely behind Baylor, though, whose toughest games--Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma--are still ahead of them. Until the Bears falter, the Seminoles will be lurking right behind them.

4
+2
Alabama
78.4

The Crimson Tide finally break back into the Top 5 after crushing Arkansas 52-0.

5
0
Missouri
77.1

Even without James Franklin, Mizzou beat Florida, 36-17, in a game where the Tigers were ahead for all but the first 22 seconds. Coupled with the host of SEC upsets last Saturday, Missouri now sits squarely on top of the SEC East, with everyone else at least two (!) games behind.

6
-2
Ohio State
76.1
7
0
Miami (FL)
71.2
8
+4
Stanford
65.9
9
+4
Auburn
64.5
10
+9
Wisconsin
59.9
11
+6
BYU
59.9
12
+6
Virginia Tech
57.5
13
-3
LSU
57.3
14
-5
Louisville
56.9
15
+16
Arizona State
56.4
16
-8
Clemson
56.2
17
-6
UCLA
55.4
18
+12
Georgia Tech
55.1
19
+1
Texas Tech
54.0
20
-6
South Carolina
53.4
21
+8
Northern Illinois
51.7
22
+10
UCF
50.7
23
-8
Houston
50.6
24
+4
Oklahoma State
50.5
25
+8
Michigan
50.3

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#28) Nebraska, (#33) Washington, (#34) Georgia, (#35) Florida, (#36) Texas A&M, (#37) Utah

Teams worse than the average FCS team: (#121) Southern Miss, (#122) FIU, (#123) Georgia State, (#124) Western Michigan, (#125) Miami (OH), (#126) New Mexico State

Largest improvement in rank: +17 Vanderbilt pulled out a fourth-quarter comeback to upset Georgia, 31-27.

Largest drop in rank: -20 Western Kentucky was favored to win against Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday but ended up losing 37-20 instead.

Most consistent team: Pittsburgh has beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and has lost to their superior ACC rivals Florida State and Virginia Tech. They arguably pulled off an upset against Duke, but otherwise no surprises here.

Most inconsistent team: Pittsburgh, being the most consistent team, beat Old Dominion consistent with their ranking, making Old Dominion look more consistent. Kansas State retakes this title after a bye.

Conference Rankings:
The MAC overtakes Conference USA for the second-worst conference position, I think largely on Toledo's overtime win over Navy.
Conference
Average
SEC
47.05
Pac-12
46.68
ACC
42.87
Big Ten
41.09
Big 12
37.90
American
29.46
Sun Belt
25.62
MWC
25.00
MAC
21.48
C-USA
21.35

Games to watch this week:

(#20) South Carolina at (#5) Missouri (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2) What a surprise the Missouri Tigers have been. They've flipped from a bowl-ineligible team last year to being squarely at the top of the SEC East now. Another win would be the next nail in the coffins of the dreams of other SEC East teams. A loss by South Carolina would make it nearly impossible for the Gamecocks to end up at the conference championship. Unfortunately, both the Gamecocks and Tigers are likely to be without their starting quarterbacks on Saturday. Line: Mizzou by 14.5

(#17) UCLA at (#1) Oregon (7:00 PM ET, ESPN) Who put UCLA's schedule together? Back-to-back road games against Stanford and Oregon? The Bruins are half a game behind Arizona State in the Pac-12 South, and the Sun Devils don't face Oregon this season. The probable loss would not doom UCLA, provided they can beat ASU later this season. Line: Oregon by 39

Honorable Mention:
  • (#19) Texas Tech at (#26) Oklahoma (3:30 PM ET, Fox)
  • (#30) Duke at (#12) Virginia Tech (3:30 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • (#44) Tennessee at (#4) Alabama (3:30 PM ET, CBS)

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Week 7 Rankings

Your Top 25:



Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Oregon
94.5

Oregon keeps the top spot after defeating Washington on the road, 45-24. Coupled with Stanford's upset loss to Utah, the Ducks are clearly the team to beat in the Pac-12 North.

2
+1
Florida State
80.0

Florida State had a bye this week, and though the Seminoles' strength of schedule declined, they rise a spot as Baylor slides.

3
-1
Baylor
78.0

The Bears stay undefeated, but they were held to only 35 points and 114 rushing yards (compared to over 60 points and over 300 rushing yards in their other games) by an inconsistent Kansas State team.

4
0
Ohio State
76.5

The Buckeyes had the week off and stay put at #4.

5
+1
Missouri
74.2

Mizzou breaks into the Top 5 after upsetting Georgia yesterday. Unfortunately, the game came with an injury to QB James Franklin, and we shall see how the Tigers fare without him.

6
+5
Alabama
70.9
7
-2
Miami (FL)
70.6
8
+1
Clemson
66.2
9
-1
Louisville
65.8
10
+4
LSU
65.6
11
+2
UCLA
64.6
12
-5
Stanford
62.6
13
+8
Auburn
60.6
14
+8
South Carolina
59.0
15
+2
Houston
57.2
16
-6
Washington
57.1
17
+7
BYU
56.3
18
+1
Virginia Tech
56.2
19
+9
Wisconsin
55.3
20
-2
Texas Tech
54.2
21
-6
Georgia
53.9
22
-10
Florida
53.7
23
+11
Utah
51.2
24
+6
Nebraska
51.1
25
+7
Texas A&M
50.0

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#27) Oklahoma, (#30) Georgia Tech, (#37) Arizona, (#41) East Carolina

Teams worse than the average FCS team: (#122) FIU, (#123) Miami (OH), (#124) Western Michigan, (#125) Georgia State, (#126) New Mexico State

Largest improvement in rank: +26 Texas surprised almost everybody, upsetting #16 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and likely saving head coach Mack Brown's job in the process.

Largest drop in rank: -21 Navy and Ohio both slide 21 spots after Navy lost big to Duke and Ohio got upset by lowly Central Michigan.

Most consistent team: Pittsburgh may have lost to Virginia Tech this week, but they did so by about as much as you would expect. Pitt hasn't swung too much so far, with a 28-point loss to top-notch FSU being their worst game and a 3-point road win over a good Duke team being their best.

Most inconsistent team: Old Dominion did not play this week and retains this ignominious title.

Conference Rankings
The SEC takes the top spot away from the Pac-12 this week, largely riding on Auburn's huge win over FCS Western Carolina.

Conference
Average
SEC
47.93
Pac-12
47.36
ACC
43.57
Big Ten
41.75
Big 12
37.61
American
30.12
Sun Belt
25.76
MWC
25.06
C-USA
21.53
MAC
21.21

Games to watch next week:

(#2) Florida State at (#8) Clemson (8:00 PM ET, ABC) The two undefeated ACC Atlantic teams face off in a primetime match that will likely decide who wins the division. Both the AP and the USA Today Coaches Poll have the Tigers over the Seminoles, but I think FSU has looked like the better team so far. They may not clear the following spread, but I expect Florida State to win on Saturday. Line: FSU by 16

(#22) Florida at (#5) Missouri (12:21 PM ET, ABC?/ESPN3) I'm confused by the start time. I'm confused about whether this game will actually be shown on ABC. It should be. With Mizzou the only undefeated team in the SEC East, Florida likely needs to win here to keep their title hopes alive. True, Missouri may be knocked off later by South Carolina or Texas A&M, but two losses for Florida may be one too many in a division that also holds the Gamecocks and Bulldogs. Line: Mizzou by 7.5

(#11) UCLA at (#12) Stanford (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2) UCLA is sitting pretty atop the Pac-12 South now, but they have yet to play their toughest in-conference opponents. That changes next week as the Bruins travel to Palo Alto to face Stanford. Following yesterday's upset by Utah, Stanford will likely be fired up for this game. And the Cardinal probably has to win this to keep their title hopes alive; it will be tough to recover from being two games behind Oregon. Line: Stanford by 10.5