Thursday, October 10, 2013

Predictions for...Boston College

Beginning this season, I'm going to start publishing predictions for randomly selected teams that are either ranked, in AQ conferences, or independent. We start with Boston College.

I'm not entirely sure what's happening here.

The Present

Points: 34.5
Ranking: #61
Record: 3-2 (1-1 ACC)
Division: ACC Atlantic

Team
Conf
Overall
#3 Florida State
3-0
5-0
#9 Clemson
3-0
5-0
#61 Boston College
1-1
3-2
#86 Wake Forest
1-2
3-3
#42 Maryland
0-1
4-1
#69 Syracuse
0-1
2-3
#70 NC State
0-2
3-2

With one conference win over Wake and one conference loss to Florida State, the Eagles are currently sitting at third in their division. Their chances of winning the division, however, are essentially nil. BC would likely have to win the rest of their conference games (0.3% chance), including against Clemson at Clemson this week, and even then would need Florida State to suffer two conference losses.

The Past


31-Aug
FCS Villanova
Home
WON 24-14
6-Sep
#86 Wake Forest
Home
WON 24-10
14-Sep
#49 USC
Away
LOST 7-35
28-Sep
#3 Florida State
Home
LOST 34-48
5-Oct
#87 Army
Home
WON 48-27

Best Performance So Far:
 Losing by only 14 to (and out-rushing) #3 ranked Florida State.
Worst Performance So Far: Winning by only 10 to (and being out-rushed by) FCS Villanova.

THE FUTURE
Date
Opponent

Line
Chance of Winning
12-Oct
#9 Clemson
Away
Lose by 30.5
3%
26-Oct
#93 North Carolina
Away
Lose by 7.5
31%
2-Nov
#19 Virginia Tech
Home
Lose by 15.5
14%
9-Nov
#126 NMSU
Away
Win by 58
99.7%
16-Nov
#70 NC State
Home
Win by 8
72%
23-Nov
#42 Maryland
Away
Lose by 8
32%
30-Nov
#69 Syracuse
Away
Lose by 15
18%


It doesn't help that, except for lowly New Mexico State, the easy games are behind them. Boston College faces a glut of road games and a host of superior conference opponents, including Clemson, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Maryland. Expect BC to win against New Mexico State and North Carolina State and to manage a road win against either Maryland or UNC to eke out bowl eligibility.
Expected Wins: 5.7

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