Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Week 2 Recap: Unintentional Grounding

Your Top 25:

Mike Weber was the game's leading rusher, seen here rushing out of a Tulsa defender's tackle.
[David Jablonski / Dayton Daily News]

Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
SD
1
0
Ohio State
63.4
0.6

Ohio State once again got off to a slow start but forced six turnovers to best (62) Tulsa 48-3.

2
0
Alabama
62.3
23.0

Bama didn't really do anything spectacular, but they beat (54) Western Kentucky 38-10.

3
+9
Louisville
52.8
3.0

Louisville put up ridiculous numbers in a Friday night game against (88) Syracuse. QB Lamar Jackson accounted for an ACC-record 610 yards (411 passing + 199 running) and the offense as a whole put up 845 total yards, a school record but alas not a conference one. The Cardinals won 62-28 and will actually challenge Clemson and Florida State for the top spot in the ACC Atlantic.

4
0
Georgia Southern
48.0
11.5

The Eagles notched their first Sun Belt win with a 24-9 victory over South Alabama, but it's their 362-ypg rushing offense (2nd in the nation) that keeps them in the Top Five.

5
+1
Houston
47.0
2.3

FCS Lamar kept Houston from scoring for hours...during the lightning delay. Otherwise, the Cougs followed up last week's upset win over (28) Oklahoma with domination, winning 42-0 and out-gaining the Cardinals 511 yards to 73.

6
-1
Clemson
45.4
18.0
7
+25
Texas A&M
44.7
14.7
8
-1
Baylor
43.9
3.5
9
-6
Michigan
43.6
20.6
10
-2
Miami (FL)
43.3
25.5
11
+6
Wisconsin
42.5
20.1
12
+3
Washington
41.1
8.9
13
+7
Nebraska
40.8
8.9
14
+30
Southern Miss
39.5
24.8
15
+3
Tennessee
39.3
4.3
16
+27
Colorado
37.8
1.0
17
-7
Navy
37.7
10.7
18
+10
Air Force
37.7
17.2
19
+16
Arizona State
37.3
13.6
20
+10
Army
36.8
15.5
21
0
Georgia Tech
36.4
7.4
22
+25
Florida
36.4
19.8
23
-14
Florida State
36.2
8.0
24
-8
Stanford
36.1
0.0
25
+9
South Florida
36.0
13.4


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(30) Boise State only beat (107) Washington State by three a week after Wazzu lost to FCS Eastern Washington.
(34) Toledo bested FCS Maine 45-3, but the Math was expecting a 60-point win. Tough audience.
(35) Arkansas similarly beat (69) TCU 41-38, but the Math thought Arkansas should win by 7, and TCU looked better statistically.
(38) West Virginia struggled against Bo Pelini's Youngstown State, but came up with the 38-21 victory.
(44) Georgia eked out a 2-point win against FCS Nicholls State.
(64) Duke opened their conference schedule by losing to (26) Wake Forest who, at one win, have matched their conference record from last season.
(65) Illinois lost to (51) North Carolina by 25 when the Math expected them to win by 9.
(71) Utah State may have had a shot against (40) USC if the Trojans weren't determined to erase the embarrassment of the previous week's loss to (2) Alabama.

Team worse than the average FCS team: North Texas and Charlotte actually beat their FCS opponents this week, so the lone spot goes to (129) Georgia State who ceded 464 rushing yards on their way to a 48-14 loss to (18) Air Force.

Largest improvement in rank: +51 Tulane bounced back from a 7-3 loss to (26) Wake Forest with a 66-21 win over Southern University. The Green Wave out-rushed the Jaguars 437 yards to 54.

Largest drop in rank: -49 Middle Tennessee bounced back from a 55-0 win over Alabama A&M with a 47-24 loss at Vanderbilt.

Most consistent team: Notre Dame lost to (33) Texas but had no trouble beating (117) Nevada.

Most inconsistent team: Georgia beat UNC (who won the ACC Coastal last year) by 9 in Week One. The Bulldogs managed to beat Nicholls State (who was second-to-last in the FCS's Southland conference last year) by 2 in Week Two.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
ACC
30.02
SEC
29.99
Big Ten
29.41
Pac-12
26.16
American
25.87
Big XII
23.36
Mountain West
18.65
MAC
15.67
C-USA
15.40
Sun Belt
14.80

THREE MORE THINGS


Central Michigan-Oklahoma State
I told you to watch the CMU-OK State game. You're welcome. On what should have been the final play of the game, Cowboy QB Mason Rudolph threw the ball away on fourth down and got (correctly) called for intentional grounding. The Chippewas, down 3, were awarded one untimed down and used it for a game-winning hail and ladder. The only problem? CMU wasn't supposed to get the untimed down. The refs have been suspended, but call me crazy for thinking that you shouldn't be able to win the game on an intentional grounding penalty.


Clemsoning
Last year's national runners-up have had a hell of a time to start the 2016 season. First, they managed a six-point victory at (37) Auburn, which may yet prove defensible depending on how Auburn's year turns out. Next, they eked out another six-point win over (55) Troy, complete with a premature touchdown celebration (i.e., fumble on the half-yard line). For the record, Troy went 4-8 last year. With (3) Louisville and (23) Florida State turning in dominant performances so far, the Tigers are looking like the third-best team in the division.

Pity Northwestern
I pointed out that no Wildcat in Division I won a football game last week. (101) Northwestern's one-point loss was especially painful as it featured a field goal attempt clanging off the crossbar and a goal-line fumble. The woe continued in Evanston this week as the Wildcats lost to Illinois State. To add insult to injury, the football caromed off the left upright and through the goalposts to give Illinois State the game-winning field goal. Switch Illinois State's bounce-in this week with the Wildcats' bounce-out last week, and Northwestern's record would be 2-0 instead of 0-2.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Week 2 Preview: We Used Up All the Good Matchups in Week 1

Week One had a slew of great matchups from Oklahoma-Houston to Notre Dame-Texas. Week Two? Not so much. You want me to watch Arkansas at TCU or Virginia Tech taking on Tennessee at Bristol? How about two teams that didn't struggle against the Group of Five or FCS in Week One?

Instead of the supposed marquee games, let's look at two matchups between two teams who did well in Week One and are sitting just outside the Top 25.

RB Matt Dayes had 138 rushing yards and 2 TDs against William & Mary last week.
[Ethan Hyman / The Raleigh News & Observer]

(26) NC State at (48) East Carolina (Noon EDT, ESPN U)
East Carolina is taking a tour of the compass points as the Pirates beat up on Western Carolina last week, host North Carolina State this week, and travel to South Carolina next week. The Pirates went 5-7 last year (compared to NC State's 7-6), but put up more offensive yards and had a more impressive final score in Week One than NC State. East Carolina beat the Catamounts(!) 52-7, compared to the Wolfpack's 48-14 win over William & Mary. That said, NC State's offense was more balanced between rushing and passing, and their defense limited the Tribe to fewer yards, both strong points in NCSU's favor.
Line: NC State by 3

(37) Central Michigan at (31) Oklahoma State (Noon EDT, FS1)
Both teams had little trouble dispatching their FCS opponents last week with Oklahoma State crushing Southeastern Louisiana 61-7 and CMU topping Presbyterian 49-3. OK State beat Central last year for the first round of the home-and-home and are likely to repeat this year. But don't overlook the Chippewas who are currently ranked fourth nationwide in total defense.
Line: Oklahoma State by 6

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Week 1 Recap: Best Opener Ever

Your Top 25:

The Falcons' ability to fly was not enough against Ohio State.
[Kirk Irwin/Getty Images]

Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
+2
Ohio State
61.6

Bowling Green may have scored the first points of the game, but after that, the Buckeyes had no problem with the Falcons, beating last year's MAC champion 77-10.

2
-1
Alabama
58.7

Bama embarrassed USC at Jerryworld, vanquishing the Trojans 52-6.

3
+8
Michigan
49.7

The Wolverines lived up to the preseason hype, topping Hawaii 63-3. It took the Rainbow Warriors most of the first half before seeing positive yardage.

4
+16
Georgia Southern
48.5

Georgia Southern shut out FCS Savannah State and out-rushed the Tigers by 386 yards.

5
-3
Clemson
46.9

Clemson looked vulnerable against Auburn, only beating a team that went 7-6 last year by six points and only after a couple Hail Mary's went unanswered.

6
+6
Houston
45.3
7
-1
Baylor
45.3
8
+64
Miami (FL)
45.1
9
+7
Florida State
44.9
10
-5
Navy
42.8
11
+4
Boise State
41.5
12
+20
Louisville
41.0
13
+23
Georgia
40.9
14
+17
Toledo
40.8
15
+3
Washington
40.5
16
-8
Stanford
40.4
17
+9
Wisconsin
40.1
18
-5
Tennessee
39.7
19
+29
Duke
39.3
20
+21
Nebraska
38.7
21
+4
Georgia Tech
38.6
22
+48
Illinois
38.4
23
+5
West Virginia
37.7
24
+33
Utah State
37.5
25
-4
Arkansas
35.8


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(28) Air Force only beat FCS Abilene Christian 37-21.
(39) Oregon also underwhelmed, with a 53-28 victory over UC Davis. (The Math expected a 60-point win.)
(52) Utah underperformed too, beating Southern Utah 24-0 in a game the Math expected the Utes to win by 62.
(54) Michigan State only beat Furman 28-13, which is even less impressive when you realize that Furman is an FCS school that went 4-7 last year and not, in fact, one of the X-Men.
(55) Oklahoma lost to Houston 33-23 in a game that included a kick six (as made famous by the 2013 Iron Bowl). 
(57) LSU was upset by Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, losing the defensive matchup 16-14.
(67) Notre Dame lost to Texas in entertaining fashion: The Longhorns scored a touchdown to take the lead with 3:29 left in the fourth quarter, but the point-after was blocked and returned for a defensive 2-point conversion to tie the game. Two overtimes later, Texas responded to Notre Dame's field goal with a touchdown to win 50-47.
(72) North Carolina ceded a safety on an ill-advised pass within their own end zone, ceded 10 points after that, and ceded 222 yards to RB Nick Chubb in a 33-24 loss to Georgia.
(78) USC was spanked by Alabama, ending the Trojans' traditional preseason hype a little earlier than usual.

Team worse than the average FCS team:

(128) Charlotte gave up 56 points to Louisville in the first half before the game mercifully ended at 70-14.
(129) North Texas are well on their way to repeating last year's 1-11 season after losing 34-21 to SMU.

Largest improvement in rank: +64 Miami (FL) obliterated Florida A&M 70-3 under new head coach and Georgia exile Mark Richt.

Largest drop in rank: -59 The Virginia Cavaliers must be arachnophobes, losing 37-20 to the Richmond Spiders under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, a totally not made-up name.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
Big Ten
33.80
ACC
32.15
SEC
29.62
Big XII
28.92
Pac-12
26.48
American
26.43
Mountain West
22.95
MAC
21.14
Sun Belt
18.09
C-USA
16.90

TWO MORE THINGS

SEC Down
Excluding Alabama's 52-6 victory over USC, SEC teams struggled in their season openers. On average, the remaining eleven teams with non-conference opponents lost by a fraction of a point. Georgia and Texas A&M got it done against UNC and UCLA, respectively, while Auburn and Ole Miss had respectable losses to Clemson and Florida State. But after that? LSU lost to Wisconsin, and Mizzou lost to West Virginia. Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida managed unconvincing victories over Group of Five teams; Mississippi State and Kentucky couldn't even manage that.

Wildcats 0-8
As u/squirrelwatch pointed out, Week One was a bad time to be a Wildcat: Kansas State lost to Stanford. Arizona lost to BYU. Northwestern lost to Western Michigan. Kentucky lost to Southern Miss. Even the Wildcats of the FCS weren't spared as Abilene Christian, New Hampshire, Villanova, and Weber State all fell to FBS opponents in Week 1.