Week 13 Recap: Upsetting Friday, Unsurprising Saturday

Your Top 25:

[Tom Pennington-Getty Images]

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts	SD
1	+2	Oklahoma	62.4	27.8

Oklahoma ran over Oklahoma State--Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon each had over 100 yards rushing and two TDs--winning the Big XII title, securing a spot in the Playoff, and taking the #1 spot here.

2

0

Alabama

61.1

16.9

Bama won the Iron Bowl 29-13, clinching the SEC West. Derrick Henry had the best day of his collegiate career, running for a whopping 271 yards.

3

-2

Clemson

60.6

23.2

Clemson struggled at South Carolina, fending off a fourth-quarter comeback to win 37-32.

4

+2

Ohio State

59.2

24.3

A week after farting around against Michigan State, the Buckeyes brought their A-game to The Game. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 214 yards, and J.T. Barrett ran for another 139, as Ohio State won 42-13.

5

-1

Navy

52.5

24.3

Navy was overpowered by Houston in a 52-31 loss. The Cougars even ran for more yards than the Midshipmen's vaunted rushing offense could muster.

6	+1	Iowa	52.2	20.3
7	-2	Baylor	52.0	18.1
8	+1	Michigan State	51.5	18.1
9	+3	Houston	50.4	19.6
10	-2	Notre Dame	49.0	14.8
11	-1	Stanford	49.0	19.6
12	+4	Florida State	45.9	18.3
13	+2	TCU	44.4	19.7
14	+5	Ole Miss	44.1	19.0
15	-4	Michigan	42.5	23.9
16	+2	Utah	42.2	17.7
17	+7	Georgia Southern	42.0	22.3
18	+3	Appalachian St.	41.8	24.0
19	+4	LSU	41.7	19.7
20	-7	Toledo	41.5	16.3
21	+6	Memphis	40.8	24.7
22	0	Oregon	40.7	25.1
23	+3	USC	40.0	14.3
24	-10	Florida	40.0	23.8
25	0	Northwestern	39.5	26.1

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(29) Air Force, like their sister service academy, was uncharacteristically out-rushed by New Mexico, losing 47-35 and the chance of hosting the Mountain West championship.

(35) Oklahoma State tumbles out of the Top 25 after getting dominated by Oklahoma.

Team worse than the average FCS team:

(126) Kansas botched a couple punts and lost 45-14 to Kansas State to round out their winless season.

(127) UCF came out to a 3-0 lead over South Florida and never scored again. The Knights lost 44-3 and finished 0-12 on the season.

(128) Eastern Michigan also started out hot, but Central Michigan staged a comeback in the third quarter to hand the Eagles their eleventh loss.

(129) North Texas had a chance against UTEP before ceding a 72-yard drive and then turning the ball over on downs. UNT lost 20-17 and ended the season 1-11.

Largest improvement in rank: +9 Bowling Green beat Ball State 48-10 after clinching the MAC East, Southern Miss clinched the C-USA West with a 58-24 victory over Louisiana Tech, Washington won the Apple Cup 45-10, and Massachusetts upset Buffalo 31-26.

Largest drop in rank: -15 Oklahoma State lost Bedlam, the Big XII title, and MY RESPECT.

Most consistent team: Mizzou was consistently bad in conference, ending the season with one SEC win over South Carolina.

Least consistent team: New Mexico followed up a 7-point loss to Colorado State with a 12-point win over the Mountain West Mountain-winning Air Force.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	30.85
Big XII	30.33
Big Ten	30.02
Pac-12	29.45
ACC	26.48
American	24.80
Mountain West	18.81
MAC	17.78
Sun Belt	14.02
Conference USA	12.86

THREE MORE THINGS

[Jonathan Bachman-AP]

More Les: After rumors swirled for the past week about whether Les Miles was keeping his head coaching job at LSU, the Tigers beat Texas A&M 19-7, apparently just what the AD was waiting for to decide that, hey, Les Miles ain't that bad. This is ridiculous. Sure, he hasn't beaten Alabama in four years, but since taking this job in 2005, LSU has won two SEC championships and a national championship and gone 111-32 overall. In Miles's worst season, LSU went 8-5. Do you think you can find someone more successful than that, especially in a job market where fifteen or so FBS schools are already looking for a new head coach? Look how well Michigan has done over the past seven years, Nebraska has done this year, or Georgia will have done next year and you'll see how stupid it would've been to let Miles go.

Old Man Griping: There are a whopping forty bowl games this year. There are 128 FBS teams. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that there aren't enough teams with non-losing records (never mind winning records) to fill those slots. Currently, 75 teams have at least six wins, and three more (Kansas State, Georgia State, and South Alabama) have the potential to win their sixth game next week. The remaining two to five openings will be filled with the 5-7 teams with the best Academic Progress Rate. But there's an even better solution: drop some bowl games. There should be at most 32 bowl games right now, so that only the better half of the teams gets a postseason. Going bowling is a privilege to be earned, and winning fewer than half of your games shouldn't earn you anything.

Who’s In? Here's how I see it:

1. Oklahoma is already an 11-1 conference champion who has beaten Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State. The Sooners are a lock.
2. Michigan State/Iowa: After next week, we will have a still-undefeated Iowa or a 12-1 Michigan State who beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa. Either way, the Big Ten Champion is in.
3. Clemson/North Carolina: No one should be surprised that Clemson is in if they win the ACC. But should Clemson lose, I think the Committee will be hard-pressed to keep a 12-1, ACC-winning, Clemson-vanquishing North Carolina out, even if two of those twelve wins were against FCS schools and the one loss was against a 3-9 South Carolina.
4. Alabama/Stanford/Florida/Ohio State: Again, no surprise that the Crimson Tide take the fourth spot if Alabama wins the SEC. If Florida upsets Bama, things could get interesting. To me, the choice would be between a two-loss, SEC-winning Florida and a two-loss, Pac-12-winning Stanford, assuming Stanford wins the Pac-12 Championship over USC next week. Given the trouble Florida has had eking out ten wins (East Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida Atlantic), Stanford would have the edge here. Should both Bama and Stanford lose, then maybe Ohio State squeaks in, but I would find it hard to believe that the Committee would let two Big Ten schools in while excluding everyone from the SEC.

Week 13 Preview: Rivarwy Week

Amara Darboh [MGoBlog]

(6) Ohio State at (11) Michigan (Noon ET, ABC)

Ohio State lost a defensive match against Michigan State last week and promptly fell apart like a wet gingerbread house. RB Ezekiel Elliott publicly criticized the play calling, and he and a couple other players announced they'll be bolting for the NFL. I paranoically considered that this was all A RUSE; either way, the Buckeyes will have their shit together for The Game. The Bucks favor the rush with Elliott being the seventh most prolific runner in the country. The Wolverines have not had much luck in the running game, but they've figured out the aerial attack with QB Jake Rudock now having the best QBR in the Big Ten. Expect this game to be another defensive battle though, as both Michigan and Ohio State have Top Ten defenses.

Line: Michigan by 2

Keenan Reynolds [Stew Milne-AP]

(4) Navy at (12) Houston (Friday Noon ET, ABC)
Navy and Houston are both in the Top Ten in terms of margin of victory. But while Houston's offense is nicely balanced between the run and the pass, Navy's is heavily weighted toward the run. (If not for Georgia Southern, the Midshipmen would have the most lopsided rush-oriented offense.) The two one-loss teams are playing for the American West crown and a likely New Year's Six berth.

Line: Navy by 12.5

Christian McCaffrey [Ezra Shaw-Getty Images]

(8) Notre Dame at (10) Stanford (7:30 PM ET, Fox)
With Stanford at two losses and Notre Dame falling out of the Playoff Four after a less-than-impressive win over Boston College, both the Cardinal and the Irish need a win to stay in contention (and probably a loss or two by someone ahead of them as well). Stanford can afford an ugly win as they also have the Pac-12 title game to impress the Committee; the Irish, too proud to join a conference, need to look damn good here for a shot at the national championship.

Line: Stanford by 7

Third-string QB Chris Johnson [Tim Heitman-USA Today]

(5) Baylor at (15) TCU (Friday 7:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Both Baylor and TCU are stereotypical Big XII teams with high-powered offenses and mediocre defenses. TCU's defense is slightly better than Baylor's, but the Bears' offense is light-years ahead of everyone else. Baylor scores a touchdown more per game and notches 56 more yards per game than the next best teams (Texas Tech and TCU, respectively). The Bears will be starting their third-string QB, but Chris Johnson looked good in the second half of the Oklahoma State game last week. Baylor needs to win out and needs Oklahoma to lose in order to win the Big XII crown. TCU is out of contention, but the Horned Frogs can play the spoiler that Oklahoma State needs.

Line: Baylor by 8.5

Dalvin Cook [Mark Wallheiser-AP]

(16) Florida State at (14) Florida (7:30 PM ET, ESPN)
At two losses and overshadowed by Clemson, the Seminoles are almost certainly not going to the Playoff. Florida, despite having to eke out a win over Florida Atlantic last week, has one loss and a ticket to the SEC Championship, and can break into the Playoff Four by winning out. But first, the Gators have to get past the Seminoles. Both teams have Top 25 defenses, but Florida State also has a Top 25 scoring offense at 36 ppg. The Seminoles may not get to go to the Playoff this year, but they can still spoil Florida's chances.

Line: Florida State by 0.5

Samaje Perine and Sterling Shepard celebrate by levitating.

[Ronald Martinez-Getty Images]

(3) Oklahoma at (20) Oklahoma State (8 PM ET, ABC)
Oklahoma is the definite favorite here. Their offense scores more points, picks up more yards, and is more balanced than Oklahoma State's. More importantly, their defense is also better across the board, and their pass defense--the best in the Big XII--will slow down the Cowboys' Top Ten passing offense. An Oklahoma win clinches the conference for the Sooners; the Cowboys need both a win over Oklahoma and a Baylor loss (hint, hint, TCU). Bedlam will decide the Big XII.

Line: Oklahoma by 19

Big Ten Football [Matthew Holst-Getty Images]

(7) Iowa at (58) Nebraska (Friday 3:30 PM ET, ABC)
Iowa has clinched the Big Ten West, has remained undefeated, and has done so by playing relatively boring football. Their offense is balanced and un-flashy, and their defense is good, particularly at stopping the run. Nebraska has played some interesting games, usually for the wrong reasons. The Cornhuskers sit at 5-6, and five of those six losses have involved allowing a fourth-quarter comeback. On the other hand, Nebraska has handed Michigan State its only loss. That makes this game hard to predict. Iowa running away with it, the Huskers allowing their sixth comeback to the Hawkeyes, and Nebraska fighting their way to bowl eligibility against a Playoff-contending team all seem equally likely.

Line: Iowa by 3.5

Chad Kelly [Rogelio V. Solis-AP]

(19) Ole Miss at (37) Mississippi State (7:15 PM ET, ESPN2)
Ole Miss had little trouble besting LSU last week and improved their chances of winning the SEC West from 0.08% to 0.2%. Next stop: The Egg Bowl. The Rebels are favored here; their defense and Mississippi State's are similar, but their offense gets 62 more yards and an extra touchdown per game. The sticking point remains having to rely on an Auburn team with two wins in the SEC to hand Alabama its second loss of the season.

Line: Ole Miss by 7

Honorable Mention:

• (29) UCLA at (26) USC (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2) The Battle for Los Angeles decides the war for the Pac-12 South. USC (-12) has the advantage.
• (47) Penn State at (9) Michigan State (3:30 PM ET, ESPN) Michigan State (-18) wins the Big Ten East with a win here and does not with a loss.

Week 12 Recap: Air Guitar Hero

Your Top 25:

Deshaun Watson [Rainier Ehrhardt-AP]

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts	SD
1	0	Clemson	62.7	22.7

Clemson cruised to an early lead over Wake Forest and kept it, winning 33-13. The Tigers outgained the Demon Deacons by 400 yards.

2

+1

Alabama

60.2

18.0

Alabama returned two punts for touchdowns and scored 49 unanswered points in the first half against Charleston Southern before letting up off the gas. The Tide ended the game up 56-6.

3

+1

Oklahoma

60.2

27.8

QB Baker Mayfield suffered a helmet-to-helmet hit and sat out the second half, and TCU staged an impassioned fourth-quarter comeback under their third-string QB Bram Kohlhausen. That comeback fell short as Gary Patterson opted to go for the winning two-point conversion instead of the tying extra point, and Kohlhausen’s pass was batted away by safety Steven Parker. Oklahoma recovered the ensuing onside kick, holding on to win 30-29.

4

+1

Navy

60.1

23.9

QB Keenan Reynolds set Navy’s career rushing record as the Midshipmen ran over Tulsa, winning 44-21 and out-rushing the Golden Hurricane by 391 yards.

5

+2

Baylor

57.2

19.1

Baylor did their best 2014 Ohio State impression, as the Bears’ third-string QB Chris Johnson looked good in the second half against Oklahoma State and kept their Big XII and Playoff dreams alive by handing the Cowboys their first loss of the season.

6	-4	Ohio State	55.9	20.5
7	+2	Iowa	52.5	21.6
8	0	Notre Dame	52.0	14.9
9	+4	Michigan State	50.5	16.0
10	+1	Stanford	50.0	20.0
11	-1	Michigan	49.7	18.9
12	-6	Houston	48.0	17.0
13	+7	Toledo	46.6	16.2
14	-2	Florida	44.8	23.6
15	-1	TCU	44.4	19.5
16	+3	Florida State	44.3	18.0
17	+9	Air Force	44.1	26.4
18	-3	Utah	42.8	19.0
19	+6	Ole Miss	42.7	19.6
20	-4	Oklahoma State	42.0	14.8
21	+3	Appalachian St.	41.8	25.0
22	+6	Oregon	41.6	25.2
23	-6	LSU	40.2	21.2
24	-3	Georgia Southern	39.8	22.4
25	+5	Northwestern	39.6	26.6

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(26) USC lost 48-28 at Oregon and allowed Ducks QB Vernon Adams, Jr. to throw for 407 yards and six TDs.

(27) Memphis was dominated by Temple in almost every category as the Tigers fell 31-12 to the Owls.

(28) Wisconsin turned the ball over five times and had a couple controversial calls go the other way in a 13-7 loss to Northwestern.

Team worse than the average FCS team:

(127) UCF joins the Club of Ignominy as the Knights stay winless in a 44-7 loss to East Carolina.

(128) North Texas had a similar-looking 41-7 loss to Middle Tennessee.

(129) Eastern Michigan stays put after a bye.

Largest improvement in rank: +9 Air Force out-rushed Boise State 328 yards to 141 in a seven-point win over the Broncos.

Largest drop in rank: -12 Arkansas tumbled after a blocked field goal ended the Razorbacks' chances against Mississippi State.

Most consistent team: Central Michigan is 6-5 overall, but they've lost to the Power Five teams, kept it close against the best of the MAC, and beaten everyone else.

Least consistent team: New Mexico keeps this title after a seven-point loss to the two-point dogs of Colorado State.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	31.65
Big XII	31.26
Big Ten	30.86
Pac-12	30.43
ACC	26.84
American	25.21
Mountain West	19.73
MAC	18.31
Sun Belt	14.31
C-USA	13.33

THREE MORE THINGS

Michigan State-Ohio State: Michigan State's defense must only show up for the big games. The Spartans allow 343 yards per game, but their best performances have come against Michigan (230 yards allowed) and Ohio State (132 yards allowed). Despite not having first-string QB Connor Cook, Michigan State tied the game 14-14 with twelve minutes to go. The score stayed knotted, allowing Spartan kicker Michael Geiger to kick the game-winning, walk-off power-strum-off field goal. The win puts Sparty in control of the Big Ten East: A win over Penn State next week punches the Spartans' ticket to Indianapolis. Lose, and the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game gets the divisional crown.

[Chris Morris-ESPN's Drawing Conclusions]

Trouble for the SEC East: Four SEC East teams played what were supposed to be cupcake games this week, and most of them had trouble putting them away. Both Florida and Georgia needed to go to overtime to top Florida Atlantic and Georgia Southern, respectively. In both cases, the SEC team scored six and stopped the underdog on fourth down. South Carolina, meanwhile, was behind for most of the game against The Citadel (an FCS team), and ended the game that way too after what would have been the game-winning touchdown was called back after a Gamecock false start. Kentucky, for their part, handled Charlotte, winning 58-10.

[David Scrivner-Iowa City Press-Citizen]

Clinched: Four more teams clinched their divisions this week. Iowa clinched the Big Ten West with a 40-20 win over Purdue, and Wisconsin lost for good measure. Stanford won the Pac-12 North with a 35-22 victory over Cal. North Carolina spoiled Frank Beamer's last home game by beating Virginia Tech in overtime to clinch the ACC Coastal. And Air Force claimed the division crown in the Mountain West's Mountain Division with a 37-30 win over Boise State and a New Mexico loss to Colorado State.