It's that time of year again. The time of year when a 6-6 Sun Belt team plays a 5-7 MAC team with a good Academic Progress Rate in an empty stadium in the Bahamas in between thirty Capital One commercials and fifteen renditions of Fall Out Boy's "Centuries." The time of year when ESPN can write "Frank Beamer's Hall of Fame career will end in that most venerable of third-tier bowl destinations" in a tone that's apparently not vicious sarcasm but rather a complete lack of awareness of the ridiculousness of that statement.
But it's also the time of year when two two-loss, Power Five teams clash in a matchup that would never happen in the regular season. When marching bands and floral floats parade down the streets of Pasadena. When the likes of Houston and Boise State get a chance to prove themselves. When players play with Toughness, Grit, Tenacity, Inspiration, Physicality, or one of the other words that come out of head coaches' mouths capitalized and do so for no other reasons than supporting their teams and loving the game. The time of year when David sometimes defeats Goliath, when Hail Marys go answered and unanswered, when trick plays work that would work nowhere else. When fans fill the stands, sing the fight songs, chant the chants, and move their arms in the shibboleth-ic ways that say, "Your team is my team too." And it's the time of year when four teams deemed most worthy play for a chance to be crowned the best team in the nation.
Yes, bowl season brings out the best and worst of college football. So today we try to cut out the bullshit and bring you the thirteen bowls you actually ought to watch this year.
13. OUTBACK BOWL
Jalen Hurd & Joshua Dobbs [Wade Payne/AP]
#23 Northwestern (10-2) vs. #27 Tennessee (8-4) (1/1 Noon ET, ESPN 2)
Both Northwestern and Tennessee finished their seasons strong; each won their past five games, though those games were against generally weaker opponents. Prior to those victories, Tennessee snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas, but outperformed expectations in a 19-14 loss to Alabama. Northwestern started off the season with a win over Stanford, staggered under a one-two punch of a Michigan hook followed by an Iowa uppercut, and beat Wisconsin in the penultimate week. Tennessee has won their games by an average of 13.1 points (compared to Northwestern's 4.3) and against stronger opponents so the Vols are favored, but look for Northwestern's rushing defense to give Tennessee some trouble.
Both Northwestern and Tennessee finished their seasons strong; each won their past five games, though those games were against generally weaker opponents. Prior to those victories, Tennessee snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas, but outperformed expectations in a 19-14 loss to Alabama. Northwestern started off the season with a win over Stanford, staggered under a one-two punch of a Michigan hook followed by an Iowa uppercut, and beat Wisconsin in the penultimate week. Tennessee has won their games by an average of 13.1 points (compared to Northwestern's 4.3) and against stronger opponents so the Vols are favored, but look for Northwestern's rushing defense to give Tennessee some trouble.
Line: Tennessee by 7
12. GODADDY MOBILE BOWL
Matt Johnson and I stick our tongues out when we're concentrating.
[Nick Wass/AP]
#37 Ga. Southern (8-4) vs. #21 Bowling Green (10-3) (12/23 8 PM ET, ESPN)
Fun fact: Bowling Green QB Matt Johnson has thrown for more yards than anyone else in the FBS, 4,700 yards to be exact. The MAC champions' pass-heavy offense nicely complements Georgia Southern's offense, the rushing-est in the nation. The fact that both teams' funnily-named head coaches have forsaken coaching this bowl for the promise of slightly greener pastures (BGSU's Dino Babers will be coaching Syracuse, and Georgia Southern's Willie Fritz is off to Tulane) adds another layer of intrigue to this bowl.
Fun fact: Bowling Green QB Matt Johnson has thrown for more yards than anyone else in the FBS, 4,700 yards to be exact. The MAC champions' pass-heavy offense nicely complements Georgia Southern's offense, the rushing-est in the nation. The fact that both teams' funnily-named head coaches have forsaken coaching this bowl for the promise of slightly greener pastures (BGSU's Dino Babers will be coaching Syracuse, and Georgia Southern's Willie Fritz is off to Tulane) adds another layer of intrigue to this bowl.
Line: Bowling Green by 2
11. HOLIDAY BOWL
JuJu Smith Schuster [Paul Rodriguez/Orange County Register]
#39 USC (8-5) vs. #25 Wisconsin (9-3) (12/30 10:30 PM ET, ESPN)
The arcs of USC's and Wisconsin's seasons have been similar. Highly touted coming into the season, they staggered and were overshadowed within their own divisions by four-letter teams that came as if from nowhere, but then clawed their way back to respectability. The difference is that USC went on to beat Utah and UCLA and win the Pac-12 South, while Wisconsin lost to Iowa and Northwestern to finish third in the Big Ten West. And don't be fooled by their better record or their 1st-ranked scoring defense; the Badgers have not beaten anyone this year with a winning record.
The arcs of USC's and Wisconsin's seasons have been similar. Highly touted coming into the season, they staggered and were overshadowed within their own divisions by four-letter teams that came as if from nowhere, but then clawed their way back to respectability. The difference is that USC went on to beat Utah and UCLA and win the Pac-12 South, while Wisconsin lost to Iowa and Northwestern to finish third in the Big Ten West. And don't be fooled by their better record or their 1st-ranked scoring defense; the Badgers have not beaten anyone this year with a winning record.
Line: USC by 1.5
10. MILITARY BOWL
Keenan Reynolds doing what Navy does: Running over people.
[David Butler II/USA Today]
#34 Pitt (8-4) vs. #6 Navy (10-2) (12/28 2:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Pitt fans were chagrined over this bowl bid (The team with the fourth-best record in the ACC gets the conference's seventh bowl bid? Not cool, ACC.) but look at that opponent. Navy has a high-caliber rushing offense led by QB Keenan Reynolds who just set a college career record for most rushing touchdowns and is poised to break Denard Robinson's record for most career rushing yards by a quarterback. Pitt's Top 25 rushing defense, ceding only 126.1 yards per game, will put up a good fight against Reynolds and the rest of the running Midshipmen.
Pitt fans were chagrined over this bowl bid (The team with the fourth-best record in the ACC gets the conference's seventh bowl bid? Not cool, ACC.) but look at that opponent. Navy has a high-caliber rushing offense led by QB Keenan Reynolds who just set a college career record for most rushing touchdowns and is poised to break Denard Robinson's record for most career rushing yards by a quarterback. Pitt's Top 25 rushing defense, ceding only 126.1 yards per game, will put up a good fight against Reynolds and the rest of the running Midshipmen.
Line: Navy by 12
9. BOCA RATON BOWL
Toledo QB Phillip Ely, shown here mid-point
[Scott W. Grau]
#18 Toledo (9-2) vs. #33 Temple (10-3) (12/22 7 PM ET, ESPN)
Both Toledo and Temple were once Group of Five darlings. Temple started off the season by beating Penn State for the first time since 1941, and Toledo knocked off the highly-touted Arkansas Razorbacks. Both teams cruised to 7-0. But then Temple fell to Notre Dame and South Florida before losing the American Championship to Houston, and Toledo lost control over the MAC West with losses to Northern Illinois and Western Michigan. It will be a strength vs. strength matchup with Temple's Top 25 defense facing off against Toledo's just-outside-the-Top-25 offense. At 21.1 papg, Toledo's scoring defense is nothing to sneeze at either.
Line: Toledo by 6.5
8. CITRUS BOWL
"One does not simply catch a pass while being covered by Jourdan Lewis." -Boromir
[Mike Carter/USA Today]
#16 Michigan (9-3) vs. #28 Florida (10-3) (1/1 1 PM ET, ABC)
Both Michigan and Florida are good defensive teams (both statistically in the Top Ten) that struggled down the stretch. Florida's last three games were an eked-out win over Florida Atlantic and losses to Florida State and to Alabama. Meanwhile, the Wolverines had four subpar defensive performances in their last six games (nailbiters against struggling Minnesota and Indiana squads and losses to rivals Michigan State and Ohio State). Both teams do better passing the ball, and that may be the difference. Wolverine Jake Rudock discovered his mojo in the latter half of the season, and Florida's passing defense is not quite as good as Michigan's.
Both Michigan and Florida are good defensive teams (both statistically in the Top Ten) that struggled down the stretch. Florida's last three games were an eked-out win over Florida Atlantic and losses to Florida State and to Alabama. Meanwhile, the Wolverines had four subpar defensive performances in their last six games (nailbiters against struggling Minnesota and Indiana squads and losses to rivals Michigan State and Ohio State). Both teams do better passing the ball, and that may be the difference. Wolverine Jake Rudock discovered his mojo in the latter half of the season, and Florida's passing defense is not quite as good as Michigan's.
Line: Michigan by 9.5
7. ALAMO BOWL
TCU does well when QB Trevone Boykin is healthy.
[USA Today]
#24 Oregon (9-3) vs. #15 TCU (10-2) (1/2 6:45 PM ET, ESPN)
Oregon's and TCU's seasons have had opposite trajectories. The Ducks lost half of their first six games (Michigan State, Utah, and Wazzou) but ended up beating Stanford and USC to finish second in the Pac-12 North. Meanwhile, TCU won their first eight, but injuries took their toll as the Horned Frogs entered the hardest part of their season. TCU ended up losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and finished third in the Big XII. The Frogs' Top 10 passing offense should have Trevone Boykin back for the bowl, and Oregon's balanced offense will be ready to roll. On the other side of the ball, Oregon's passing defense is one of the worst in the country, and TCU's defense is as mediocre as its membership in the Big XII implies. Look for these teams to put up the points that Michigan and Florida kept each other from scoring the previous day.
Oregon's and TCU's seasons have had opposite trajectories. The Ducks lost half of their first six games (Michigan State, Utah, and Wazzou) but ended up beating Stanford and USC to finish second in the Pac-12 North. Meanwhile, TCU won their first eight, but injuries took their toll as the Horned Frogs entered the hardest part of their season. TCU ended up losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and finished third in the Big XII. The Frogs' Top 10 passing offense should have Trevone Boykin back for the bowl, and Oregon's balanced offense will be ready to roll. On the other side of the ball, Oregon's passing defense is one of the worst in the country, and TCU's defense is as mediocre as its membership in the Big XII implies. Look for these teams to put up the points that Michigan and Florida kept each other from scoring the previous day.
Line: TCU by 0
6. RUSSELL ATHLETIC TANGERINE BOWL
KD Cannon is one of the few uninjured Baylor players.
#12 North Carolina (11-2) vs. #13 Baylor (9-3) (12/29 5:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Baylor looks like the dominant team statistically. The Bears have the most prolific offense in the country, averaging over 600 yards per game, evenly split between the running game and the passing game. North Carolina's defense somehow gives up more yards than Baylor's despite the fact that they're not the team in the Big XII. Injuries and turnovers give the Tar Heels a chance though. Baylor's first-string quarterback, leading running back, and leading receiver will all be out for various injuries. And UNC is +8 on turnover margin for the season; Baylor coughed up the ball four times to lose their last regular-season game to Texas. The intangibles make this game the most interesting non-New Year's Six bowl.
Baylor looks like the dominant team statistically. The Bears have the most prolific offense in the country, averaging over 600 yards per game, evenly split between the running game and the passing game. North Carolina's defense somehow gives up more yards than Baylor's despite the fact that they're not the team in the Big XII. Injuries and turnovers give the Tar Heels a chance though. Baylor's first-string quarterback, leading running back, and leading receiver will all be out for various injuries. And UNC is +8 on turnover margin for the season; Baylor coughed up the ball four times to lose their last regular-season game to Texas. The intangibles make this game the most interesting non-New Year's Six bowl.
Line: Baylor by 5
5. PEACH BOWL
SURPRISE! [Charles Krupa/AP]
#7 Houston (12-1) vs. #10 Florida State (10-2) (12/31 Noon ET, ESPN)
You would never know it based on the current state of college football, but Houston and Florida State played almost every year between 1960 and 1978 with Houston handily leading the series 12-2-2. My, how things have changed. Houston went 21-17 over the past three years, while Florida State went 39-3, winning the national championship two years ago and making the playoff last year. This year, the Cougars bumped off Memphis, Navy, and Temple to win the American and earn the Group of Five's New Year's Six berth under new coach Tom Herman. Meanwhile, Florida State had a disappointing season after losing to Clemson for the first time in four years and resigning themselves to a non-playoff New Year's Six bowl.
You would never know it based on the current state of college football, but Houston and Florida State played almost every year between 1960 and 1978 with Houston handily leading the series 12-2-2. My, how things have changed. Houston went 21-17 over the past three years, while Florida State went 39-3, winning the national championship two years ago and making the playoff last year. This year, the Cougars bumped off Memphis, Navy, and Temple to win the American and earn the Group of Five's New Year's Six berth under new coach Tom Herman. Meanwhile, Florida State had a disappointing season after losing to Clemson for the first time in four years and resigning themselves to a non-playoff New Year's Six bowl.
Line: Florida State by 3
4. ROSE BOWL
This is not the Christian McCaffrey you're looking for.
[USA Today]
#9 Stanford (11-2) vs. #11 Iowa (12-1) (1/1 5 PM ET, ESPN)
Both Stanford and Iowa have won their games by an average of 14 points. The difference is that Stanford has done so against tougher opponents. The Cardinal scheduled Notre Dame and Northwestern for their non-conference games on top of a conference schedule that included Oregon, USC, and UCLA. Meanwhile, Iowa played in the weak Big Ten West against Northwestern, Wisconsin, and four teams with losing records; drew 6-6 Indiana and 3-9 Maryland from the East; and had a non-conference schedule where the toughness maxed out at 8-4 Pitt. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes actually beat Northwestern.
Both Stanford and Iowa have won their games by an average of 14 points. The difference is that Stanford has done so against tougher opponents. The Cardinal scheduled Notre Dame and Northwestern for their non-conference games on top of a conference schedule that included Oregon, USC, and UCLA. Meanwhile, Iowa played in the weak Big Ten West against Northwestern, Wisconsin, and four teams with losing records; drew 6-6 Indiana and 3-9 Maryland from the East; and had a non-conference schedule where the toughness maxed out at 8-4 Pitt. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes actually beat Northwestern.
Line: Stanford by 5
3. COTTON BOWL (CFP SEMIFINAL)
Speaking of guys you can't stop...
[Matthew Emmons/USA Today]
#5 Michigan State (12-1) vs. #2 Alabama (12-1) (12/31 8 PM ET, ESPN)
I wouldn't say that Michigan State has no chance, but it's hard to find a glimmer of hope for the Spartans. Relative to MSU, Bama scores more points, gains more yards, and allows their opponents fewer points, fewer rushing yards, and fewer passing yards. And though the Big Ten East is no cakewalk, the Crimson Tide have accomplished all this in the vaunted SEC West. At least Mark Dantonio will get to catch up with his former boss?
Line: Alabama by 10
2. FIESTA BOWL
2. FIESTA BOWL
Is this how you battlefrog?
[Eamon Queeney/Columbus Dispatch]
#8 Notre Dame (10-2) vs. #4 Ohio State (11-1) (1/1 1 PM, ESPN)
The Buckeyes are the favorites here, and let me count the ways. Malik Zaire and KeiVarae Russell are expected to miss the Fiesta Bowl for Notre Dame, and C.J. Prosise is questionable. Ohio State has the 12th-best rushing offense in the country behind RB Ezekiel Elliott, and the Irish's rushing defense is mediocre. And the Buckeyes allow their opponents to score an average of 14 points per game, better than every other team in the nation except Wisconsin.
The Buckeyes are the favorites here, and let me count the ways. Malik Zaire and KeiVarae Russell are expected to miss the Fiesta Bowl for Notre Dame, and C.J. Prosise is questionable. Ohio State has the 12th-best rushing offense in the country behind RB Ezekiel Elliott, and the Irish's rushing defense is mediocre. And the Buckeyes allow their opponents to score an average of 14 points per game, better than every other team in the nation except Wisconsin.
Line: Ohio State by 5.5
1. ORANGE BOWL (CFP SEMIFINAL)
Baker Mayfield has thrown five more TDs and six fewer INTs than Clemson's Deshaun Watson.
[Mark D. Smith/USA Today]
#3 Oklahoma (11-1) vs. #1 Clemson (13-0) (12/31 4 PM ET, ESPN)
The beauty of the playoff is watching two teams at the pinnacle of college football duking it out. Oklahoma's Top Ten offense facing off against Clemson's Top Ten defense. Clemson's Top 25 offense facing off against Oklahoma's Top 25 (or so) defense. And though the Math favors Oklahoma, mainly because they beat their opponents by 25 compared to Clemson's 18, the only way to find out what will happen is to watch.
The beauty of the playoff is watching two teams at the pinnacle of college football duking it out. Oklahoma's Top Ten offense facing off against Clemson's Top Ten defense. Clemson's Top 25 offense facing off against Oklahoma's Top 25 (or so) defense. And though the Math favors Oklahoma, mainly because they beat their opponents by 25 compared to Clemson's 18, the only way to find out what will happen is to watch.
Line: Oklahoma by 1.5
