Though the Big Twelve is not big enough to hold a conference championship, 11-1 Oklahoma has already won the conference outright and locked down a Playoff spot. The other four Power Five conferences are fighting for the other three spots, so all four conference championship games have Playoff implications.
Connor Cook
BIG TEN: (8) Michigan State vs. (6) Iowa (8 PM ET, Fox)
Both MSU and Iowa have characteristically Big Ten defenses; they both rank in the Top 25 in terms of points allowed and are particularly good at stopping the run. However, Iowa's mediocre passing defense will be tested by Connor Cook's arm, and while MSU's defense is decent, it has dropped off from last year's elite level after DC Pat Narduzzi left to be Pitt's head coach. With Iowa and Michigan State at #4 and #5 in the official rankings, this game is for all intents and purposes a quarterfinal playoff game.
Line: Michigan State by 3.5
Kevin Hogan [Ezra Shaw-Getty Images]
PAC-12: (11) Stanford vs. (23) USC (7:45 PM ET, ESPN)
USC is 8-4 overall, and three of those four losses were to Pac-12 North teams, including a 41-31 loss to Stanford in Los Angeles. That loss came during the Steve Sarkisian days, and the Trojans have managed to turn things around since then. But Stanford has looked more impressive with losses to (25) Northwestern and (22) Oregon being the only blemishes on their record. Their balanced offense and the Pac-12 Championship venue (the 49ers' home in Santa Clara, a mere 13 miles from Stanford's campus) give the Cardinal the advantage. Stanford is on the bubble; the Cardinal need a loss from Alabama or maybe Clemson to get a crack at the Playoff.
Line: Stanford by 1.5
Derrick Henry
SEC: (24) Florida vs. (2) Alabama (4 PM ET, CBS)
Alabama and Florida have the two best defenses in the SEC with both ranking in the Top 10 nationally. The Tide have looked dominant in the challenging SEC West, losing somewhat flukily to Ole Miss but still winning their conference games by an average of 14 points. And Derrick Henry has kicked things into gear, running for over 200 yards in four of the last six games. Florida, on the other hand, has looked less than stellar. The Gators did hand Ole Miss one of their two conference losses--Bama thanks you--but lost to LSU & Florida State and struggled against Kentucky, Vanderbilt, East Carolina, and Florida Atlantic. These struggles make Florida a huge dog and likely mean that should Florida win, the Committee will snub the Gators in favor of Stanford or Ohio State.
Alabama and Florida have the two best defenses in the SEC with both ranking in the Top 10 nationally. The Tide have looked dominant in the challenging SEC West, losing somewhat flukily to Ole Miss but still winning their conference games by an average of 14 points. And Derrick Henry has kicked things into gear, running for over 200 yards in four of the last six games. Florida, on the other hand, has looked less than stellar. The Gators did hand Ole Miss one of their two conference losses--Bama thanks you--but lost to LSU & Florida State and struggled against Kentucky, Vanderbilt, East Carolina, and Florida Atlantic. These struggles make Florida a huge dog and likely mean that should Florida win, the Committee will snub the Gators in favor of Stanford or Ohio State.
Line: Alabama by 22
Jacobi Owens [Johnny Crawford-AP]
MOUNTAIN WEST: (29) Air Force at (30) San Diego St. (7:30 PM ET, ESPN 2)
This game has no bearing on the Playoff picture, but it should still be a good one to watch. Air Force has the best rushing offense and the second-best total and scoring offense in the Mountain West. San Diego State meanwhile has the best scoring, total, and rushing defense in the conference. It'll be strength versus strength in one of the better Group of Five conferences.
This game has no bearing on the Playoff picture, but it should still be a good one to watch. Air Force has the best rushing offense and the second-best total and scoring offense in the Mountain West. San Diego State meanwhile has the best scoring, total, and rushing defense in the conference. It'll be strength versus strength in one of the better Group of Five conferences.
Line: Air Force by 2
Greg Ward Jr. [Troy Taormina-USA Today]
AMERICAN: (31) Temple at (9) Houston (Noon ET, ABC)
The other Group of Five championship you should care about is the American's, as four sweethearts (Memphis, Navy, Temple, and Houston) have rotated in and out of the Top 25 over the past few weeks. Memphis ended up losing to the other three, and Houston defeated Navy last week, so the Owls and Cougars are left to fight for the championship. Houston's balanced, Top 25 offense will be countered by Temple's Top 25 defense. Temple's offense is not great, and though Houston is as good as Temple at stopping the run game, the Cougars' passing defense ranks in the Bottom 25. As the two highest-ranked Group-of-Five teams, a New Year's Six berth is on the line as well.
Line: Houston by 16
B.J. Goodson [Bart Boatwright-Greenville News]
ACC: (36) North Carolina vs. (3) Clemson (8 PM ET, ABC)
Much has been made of Deshaun Watson and Clemson's vaunted offense and for good reason. Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Clemson's offense is 14th in total yardage and 15th in total scoring. But UNC's offense is right up there with them, 16th in yardage and 11th in scoring. It's Clemson's 9th-ranked defense that will win this game for the Tigers.
Much has been made of Deshaun Watson and Clemson's vaunted offense and for good reason. Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Clemson's offense is 14th in total yardage and 15th in total scoring. But UNC's offense is right up there with them, 16th in yardage and 11th in scoring. It's Clemson's 9th-ranked defense that will win this game for the Tigers.
Line: Clemson by 25
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