Top Bowls to Watch

11. Gator Bowl: #35 Mississippi State vs. #27 Northwestern (1 January, Noon ET, ESPN2)

The feisty 9-3 Wildcats give the B1G the best chance of winning a bowl this season. But don't count the Bulldogs out either. Though their 8-4 record is slightly worse than Northwestern's, they had to play Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M instead of a weak Big Ten.
Line: Mississippi State by 2

10. Orange Bowl: #16 Northern Illinois vs. #9 Florida State (1 January, 8:30 ET, ESPN)

It's nice to see the little guy rewarded. The NIU Huskies have been at or near the top of the MAC for the last couple years and have had successful bowl outings against Fresno State and Arkansas State during that period as well. Florida State, however, is a completely different bowl opponent. Though I suspect a lot of people will be rooting for the underdog, a Seminole team many expected to go to the National Championship will prove too much for the Huskies.
Line: Florida State by 13.5

9. Capital One Bowl: #8 Georgia vs. #21 Nebraska (1 January, 1 ET, ABC)

Call it the Consolation Bowl. After losing their respective conference championships, these teams are here instead of the National Championship or the Rose Bowl. The difference is that Georgia was one play away from beating the mighty Alabama, and Nebraska was exposed by a ho-hum Wisconsin squad.
Line: Georgia by 9.5

8. Rose Bowl: #37 Wisconsin vs. #11 Stanford (1 January, 5 ET, ESPN)

The bowl worries for the Big Ten continue as a Wisconsin team that won the Big Ten on Ohio State's and Penn State's ineligibility (okay, and an impressive revenge win against Nebraska) faces a Stanford team that wrested the Pac-12 title away from Oregon and is considered to be one of the best two-loss teams in the country.
Line: Stanford by 6.5

7. Outback Bowl: #12 South Carolina vs. #26 Michigan (1 January, 1 ET, ESPN)

Both of these teams have had a somewhat disappointing season. Both had a decent chance to go to their conference championships, but a loss to Florida or Nebraska effectively closed the door on them. Both will be playing with something to prove.
Line: South Carolina by 3.5

6. Holiday Bowl: #36 Baylor vs. #24 UCLA (27 December, 9:45 ET, ESPN)

This could prove to be an exciting game, featuring two unpredictable teams with monkey-wrench-throwing seasons. In this corner, Baylor who dealt Kansas State their sole loss, but was also blown out by TCU. In the other corner, UCLA who took control of the Pac-12 South by beating Arizona State and USC, but also lost big to Cal. Which incarnation of each team will show up to San Diego?
Line: Baylor by 0.5

5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: #13 LSU vs. #15 Clemson (31 December, 7:30 ET, ESPN)

The 10-2 Tigers barred from their conference championship simply because their division happens to contain one of the best teams in the country face the 10-2 Tigers barred from their conference championship simply because their division happens to contain one of the best teams in the country.
Line: LSU by 2

4. Alamo Bowl: #23 Texas vs. #14 Oregon State (29 December, 6:45 ET, ESPN)

A great match-up against two teams that started off surprisingly strong before getting visited by Chinua Achebe. All right, it wasn't quite that bad. These are two great teams who just had the misfortune of having to play Kansas State & Oklahoma or Oregon & Stanford.
Line: Oregon State by 4.5

3. BCS National Championship: #4 Notre Dame vs. #1 Alabama (7 January, 8:30 ET, ESPN)

Let's be frank. This game isn't ranked higher on this list because the math and I are still not convinced that Notre Dame is the best team in the country. But who knows? Maybe the luck of the Irish will continue and the crystal football will be going to South Bend. Eugh, I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
Line: Alabama by 10.5

2. Cotton Bowl: #5 Texas A&M vs. #7 Oklahoma (4 January, 8 ET, Fox)

What a fantastic match-up with fantastic story-lines. Not only will this game decide who the best 2-loss team is, it will also decide what noun we get to put after Johnny Manziel's (AKA Johnny Football AKA Johnny Heisman) name for the next month.
Line: Texas A&M by 1

1. Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. #3 Kansas State (3 January, 8:30 ET, ESPN)

Remember that week after Alabama's loss to Texas A&M, when it was an open question whether Oregon or Kansas State should be ranked #1? NOW WE GET TO FIND OUT. The victor of this game gets the bronze in my book, maybe even silver.
Line: Oregon by 5.5

Week 14 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	0	Alabama	60.8

The Crimson Tide edge out Georgia 32-28 for the SEC championship. Alabama loses some points, as they were one incomplete pass away from losing, but maintains their #1 spot. Their invite to the National Championship is well deserved.

2	0	Oregon	60.5

Oregon did not play this week, but the Ducks added a full point as their strength of schedule improves after Oregon State's walloping of Nicholls State.

3

+1

Kansas State

55.4

Kansas State takes back their #3 spot after beating Texas 42-24.

4

-1

Notre Dame

55.1

Notre Dame drops a spot after not playing this week. As I've said before, even though they're ranked #4, the Irish deserve to go to the National Championship as the only eligible undefeated team.

5

0

Texas A&M

50.1

The Aggies stay put after not playing this week.

6	+1	Florida	49.6
7	+1	Oklahoma	49.2
8	-2	Georgia	46.6
9	+1	Ohio State	46.6
10	-1	Florida State	46.5
11	0	Stanford	44.9
12	+1	South Carolina	42.5
13	-1	LSU	42.4
14	+4	Oregon State	41.3
15	-1	Clemson	40.8
16	+3	Utah State	38.0
17	0	Northern Illinois	37.9
18	+6	Boise State	35.5
19	+3	Fresno State	35.4
20	-4	Oklahoma State	35.3
21	-6	Nebraska	35.3
22	+1	San Jose State	35.1
23	-3	Texas	34.2
24	-3	UCLA	34.0
25	+8	Arkansas State	32.4

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#26) Michigan

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Largest improvement in rank: +11 Wisconsin: After making it to the Big Ten Championship on Ohio State's and Penn State's ineligibility, the Badgers shock Nebraska 70-31.

Largest drop in rank: -13 Middle Tennessee: The Blue Raiders were playing for the Sun Belt title until they were crushed by Arkansas State 45-0.

Most consistent team: USC did not play this week and thus retains this title.

Most inconsistent team: Ditto for Arizona.

Conference Rankings: (Based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	14.42
SEC	11.29
Pac-12	8.62
Big Ten	3.22
ACC	0.91
Big East	-2.14
Sun Belt	-3.73
Mountain West	-6.49
WAC	-7.79
Conference USA	-9.07
MAC	-12.12

Games to watch next week:

(#60) Navy vs. (#116) Army (3:00 ET, CBS) The storied Navy-Army game is the last before the bowls. Line: Navy by 18.

Week 13 Rankings

I have finally recovered from my Thanksgiving food coma and can now present:

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	0	Alabama	61.2

The Tide rolled over Auburn 49-0, maintaining their #1 spot.

2	0	Oregon	59.5

The Ducks win the Civil War, beating Oregon State 48-24.

3

+1

Notre Dame

54.7

Notre Dame beat USC 22-13 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would make it seem. Though it's not enough to convince me or the math that the Irish are the best team in the country, they've earned the right as the only eligible undefeated team to prove us wrong on the field.

4

-1

Kansas State

54.6

After a bye week, Kansas State loses their #3 spot to the Fighting Irish. The Wildcats probably should've been down here last week.

5

+1

Texas A&M

50.2

The Aggies easily beat Missouri 59-29, but it's Florida State's loss to Florida that propels A&M to the #5 spot.

6	+2	Georgia	49.6
7	+2	Florida	49.6
8	-1	Oklahoma	48.2
9	-4	Florida State	46.6
10	0	Ohio State	46.2
11	+3	Stanford	43.8
12	+3	LSU	42.4
13	+5	South Carolina	42.4
14	-3	Clemson	40.8
15	+2	Nebraska	40.2
16	-3	Oklahoma State	38.9
17	+4	Northern Illinois	38.0
18	-6	Oregon State	37.7
19	+1	Utah State	37.4
20	-4	Texas	37.1
21	-2	UCLA	35.7
22	+7	Fresno State	34.9
23	+1	San Jose State	34.8
24	-1	Boise State	34.5
25	-3	Michigan	32.2

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#36) Rutgers

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Most consistent team: USC wins this honor after losing close to Notre Dame. Former title holder Northwestern lost the spot by beating Illinois by 36 in a season-best performance.

Most inconsistent team: Arizona's 7-point loss to Arizona State wasn't surprising, but the Wildcats retain this title after a rollercoaster season.

Conference Rankings: (Based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	14.43
SEC	11.61
Pac-12	7.69
Big Ten	3.17
ACC	1.10
Big East	-1.98
Sun Belt	-3.10
Mountain West	-6.97
WAC	-7.91
Conference USA	-9.00
MAC	-11.91

Games to watch next week:

#28 UCF at #34 Tulsa (Noon ET, ESPN2) The math is telling me that this is the best game to watch this weekend. Though I'm not sure I agree, the Conference USA Championship does feature two 9-3 teams that didn't quite make the Top 25 and promises to be the closest game this weekend. Well, except for South Alabama at Hawaii. Even the math knows you don't want to watch that. Line: UCF by 2.

#15 Nebraska vs. #48 Wisconsin (8:17 ET, Fox) The B1G Championship might be more interesting if Nebraska wasn't facing a 7-5 Badger team that got in by virtue of being eligible for postseason play. Still, the matchup should be a close Big Ten slugfest. Line: Nebraska by 5.

#8 Oklahoma at #26 TCU (Noon ET, ESPN) Oklahoma can clinch at least a share of the Big 12 title with a win against the Horned Frogs this Saturday. The Sooners can still win outright if Kansas State also falls this weekend, though Oklahoma fans would have to root for Texas to make this happen. Line: Oklahoma by 6

#1 Alabama vs. #6 Georgia (4:00 ET, CBS) The math misses games like this one where it doesn't think the underdog has much of a chance. This season, those games have included Alabama-Texas A&M and Oregon-Stanford. The math also doesn't know that the winner of the SEC Championship will probably be receiving an invitation to the National Championship. (Although right now, I would send Oregon over Georgia.) Line: Alabama by 12.5

Week 12 Rankings

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	+2	Alabama	59.4

Alabama rolled over the fantastically named Western Carolina Catamounts, 49-0, but losses by both Oregon and Kansas State are what propel the Tide back to #1.

2	-1	Oregon	57.4

Oregon suffers a heartbreaking 17-14 loss in overtime to Stanford and falls to #2.

3

-1

Kansas State

54.2

What's the matter with Kansas State? An unrecognizable Wildcat team showed up yesterday and lost 52-24 to a 5-5 Baylor team.

4

0

Notre Dame

53.7

The Fighting Irish stay undefeated by squashing Wake Forest, 38-0. However, it is not enough to convince the math to rank them above the three aforementioned one-loss teams.

5

0

Florida State

52.4

Florida State stays put at #5 and clinches a spot in the ACC title game after beating Maryland 41-14.

6	0	Texas A&M	48.3
7	+2	Oklahoma	47.2
8	0	Georgia	47.1
9	-2	Florida	46.8
10	0	Ohio State	46.0
11	0	Clemson	45.9
12	+5	Oregon State	42.3
13	+5	Oklahoma State	42.2
14	+2	Stanford	41.7
15	-2	LSU	41.3
16	-2	Texas	41.2
17	-2	Nebraska	40.1
18	-6	South Carolina	39.9
19	0	UCLA	39.9
20	+2	Utah State	37.7
21	0	Northern Illinois	36.2
22	+4	Michigan	34.8
23	+2	Boise State	34.2
24	+6	San Jose State	33.8
25	+7	Rutgers	33.6

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#27) Louisiana Tech, (#30) USC, (#32) Texas Tech

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Most consistent team: Northwestern retains this honor, again after doing slightly better than expected by beating Michigan State by 3 in East Lansing.

Most inconsistent team: Another Wildcat team, Arizona, also keeps their title. They swing from beating a terrible Colorado team by 25 last week to beating an underrated Utah squad by 10 yesterday.

Conference Rankings: (These rankings are based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	14.26
SEC	10.54
Pac-12	7.83
Big Ten	3.27
ACC	2.24
Big East	-1.76
Sun Belt	-3.23
Mountain West	-6.95
WAC	-7.62
Conference USA	-9.08
MAC	-12.01

Games to watch next week:

There are so many great rivalry games coming up that it'll be hard to go wrong on Thanksgiving weekend. Here are the best of the best:

#4 Notre Dame at #30 USC (8:00, ABC) After last weekend, Notre Dame remains one of only two unbeaten FBS teams, just in time to face their second-biggest test of the season. A big win here may be enough to quiet the naysayers and to convince the math to rank them at least #3. Line: Notre Dame by 1.

#13 Oklahoma State at #7 Oklahoma (3:30) The math has always been big on the Cowboys, even after a 21-point loss to Arizona. Now the math is telling you to tune into Bedlam. Also, following Baylor's upset of K State, Oklahoma wins here and next week would be enough for the Sooners to share the Big 12 title. Line: Oklahoma by 4.

#14 Stanford at #19 UCLA (6:30, Fox) This game may be a prepeat of the Pac-12 Championship. UCLA's victory over USC last week is enough to guarantee them a spot in the title match. A Stanford win here or an Oregon loss at Oregon State would be enough to send the Cardinal. Line: UCLA by 2.