Week 1 Preview: A Full Weekend of Games

Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham [Thomas Graning/AP]

(15) Washington vs. (11) Auburn (3:30 PM EDT, ABC)

Both Washington and Auburn had 10-win seasons that sputtered at the end. Washington's November loss at Stanford kept the Huskies out of the Pac-12 Championship, and while Auburn beat Alabama to win the SEC West, they lost the SEC Championship to Georgia. Both made New Year's Six bowls, but both lost: Washington to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, Auburn to UCF in the Peach Bowl. Auburn returns to the site of their last two losses on Saturday, but I expect the Tigers to win this time around. Both teams have stout defenses, ranking in the Top 15 in total defense last year, but I expect Auburn's pass game to get around the Husky defense, which is better at stopping the run.

Line: Auburn by 4.5

(17) FAU at (9) Oklahoma (Noon EDT, Fox)

Florida Atlantic had a great season last year. They won all of their conference games, beat Akron in the bowl game held in their own stadium, and finished sixth in rushing offense. But Oklahoma also had a great season last year. Despite an early loss to Iowa State, the Sooners won the Big XII, made the playoff, and had the country's most productive offense. Against stiffer competition, the Sooners finished 12-2 in comparison to FAU's 11-3. In fact, in the 18 years that FAU has had a football program, they've never had a win-loss record better than Oklahoma's. This should be an interesting, offense-heavy, David-and-Goliath match, but the smart money always bets on Goliath.

Line: Oklahoma by 10

(30) Miami (FL) vs. (33) LSU (Sunday 7:30 PM EDT, ABC)

Don't let last year's win-loss records fool you. Miami had a fantastic year - being ranked as high as #2 in the AP Poll after their blowout win over Notre Dame - until they didn't. They lost at Pitt the last week of the regular season, lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship, lost to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. And frankly, it felt like the Hurricanes got lucky before that, eking out one-score wins against Florida State in a down year, Georgia Tech, and UNC. Meanwhile, LSU's 2017 was up and down. They lost to Troy but beat Auburn. (Enough said.) But LSU's defense was 12th in the country last year. The Tigers finished 9-4, only one game worse than the Canes, and the SEC West is a bit tougher than the ACC Coastal. Don't look at the official rankings; expect a close game Sunday night at Jerryworld.

Line: Miami by 1

You should also watch:

(19) Army at (35) Duke (Friday 7 PM EDT, ESPNU)
Line: Army by 4

(28) Virginia Tech at (27) Florida State (Monday 8 PM EDT, ESPN)
Line: Florida State by 4

(13) Michigan at (6) Notre Dame (7:30 PM EDT, NBC)
Line: Notre Dame by 16

(22) Louisville at (2) Alabama (8 PM EDT, ABC)
Line: Alabama by 18.5

(38) San Diego State at (32) Stanford (Friday 9 PM EDT, FS1)
Line: Stanford by 6

Meaningless Preseason Rankings

Yes, I know technically, four games were played last weekend, but we're going to ignore them for now (You're welcome, Colorado State.) and present the 2018 Meaningless Preseason Rankings.

Your Top 25:

The face of a man sorry to be in this situation [Jeffrey Becker/USA Today Sports]

Rk	Team	Score
1	Ohio State	45.4

Ohio State continues the Big Ten's not-so-proud tradition of failing to take enough action following a terrible thing and then totally mishandling the response once said terrible thing and failure to act come to light. However, notwithstanding his 3ish-week suspension, Urban Meyer has led the Buckeyes to 11-2 or better since his hire, and OSU promises to be good (at football, at least) this year too.

2

Alabama

42.3

Speaking of being good and likely continuing to be good, Alabama seems to lose only one game per year. Sometimes they lose to Clemson in the National Championship. Sometimes they lose to Ole Miss but still win the SEC and the National Championship. Sometimes they lose to Auburn, thereby losing the SEC West and not getting to play in the National Championship. Sometimes they lose to Auburn, lose the SEC West, still get invited to the Playoff, and end up winning the National Championship. Which will it be this year?

3

Wisconsin

42.2

Wisconsin plays classic, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, Big Ten football, winning on the ground and with a stout defense. Lee Corso picked the Badgers to win the National Championship this year. Not so my fast, my friend. While I expect Scott Frost not to resuscitate Nebraska in a single season and Wisconsin will once again win the Big Ten West, they'll have to get past the East's contender just to get an invitation, something they have not done despite making it to the B1G Championship three out of the last four years.

4

Penn State

41.1

James Franklin has returned the Nittany Lions to contendership, winning the Big Ten in 2016 and falling one game short of winning the division in 2017. Penn State's scoring offense and scoring defense both ranked in the Top Ten last year, and their turnover margin at +12 was just outside the Top Ten. We'll see if Penn State can fight their way to the top of a division with four talented teams this year.

5

Notre Dame

40.2

Notre Dame finished last season with a 10-3 record and seventh place in rushing yardage, even with a strong schedule that included Georgia, Miami (FL), and USC. But they are immediately tested this year hosting Michigan in Week One.

6	Clemson	40.0
7	Georgia	39.9
8	Oklahoma	36.8
9	Navy	36.5
10	Auburn	36.4
11	Michigan State	34.5
12	Michigan	34.2
13	MS State	34.1
14	Washington	34.0
15	TCU	33.9
16	Florida Atlantic	33.8
17	Northwestern	33.7
18	Army	33.7
19	UCF	33.4
20	OK State	33.3
21	Louisville	33.1
22	Iowa	33.1
23	Georgia Tech	33.0
24	NC State	32.3
25	Wake Forest	32.1

Full rankings can be found here.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Avg.
Big 10	30.1
ACC	29.2
Big 12	26.4
SEC	25.4
Pac-12	23.1
American	21.6
Mountain West	19.1
MAC	16.9
C-USA	15.2
Sun Belt	14.1

Week 2 Recap: Unintentional Grounding

Your Top 25:

Mike Weber was the game's leading rusher, seen here rushing out of a Tulsa defender's tackle.

[David Jablonski / Dayton Daily News]

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts	SD
1	0	Ohio State	63.4	0.6

Ohio State once again got off to a slow start but forced six turnovers to best (62) Tulsa 48-3.

2

0

Alabama

62.3

23.0

Bama didn't really do anything spectacular, but they beat (54) Western Kentucky 38-10.

3

+9

Louisville

52.8

3.0

Louisville put up ridiculous numbers in a Friday night game against (88) Syracuse. QB Lamar Jackson accounted for an ACC-record 610 yards (411 passing + 199 running) and the offense as a whole put up 845 total yards, a school record but alas not a conference one. The Cardinals won 62-28 and will actually challenge Clemson and Florida State for the top spot in the ACC Atlantic.

4

0

Georgia Southern

48.0

11.5

The Eagles notched their first Sun Belt win with a 24-9 victory over South Alabama, but it's their 362-ypg rushing offense (2nd in the nation) that keeps them in the Top Five.

5

+1

Houston

47.0

2.3

FCS Lamar kept Houston from scoring for hours...during the lightning delay. Otherwise, the Cougs followed up last week's upset win over (28) Oklahoma with domination, winning 42-0 and out-gaining the Cardinals 511 yards to 73.

6	-1	Clemson	45.4	18.0
7	+25	Texas A&M	44.7	14.7
8	-1	Baylor	43.9	3.5
9	-6	Michigan	43.6	20.6
10	-2	Miami (FL)	43.3	25.5
11	+6	Wisconsin	42.5	20.1
12	+3	Washington	41.1	8.9
13	+7	Nebraska	40.8	8.9
14	+30	Southern Miss	39.5	24.8
15	+3	Tennessee	39.3	4.3
16	+27	Colorado	37.8	1.0
17	-7	Navy	37.7	10.7
18	+10	Air Force	37.7	17.2
19	+16	Arizona State	37.3	13.6
20	+10	Army	36.8	15.5
21	0	Georgia Tech	36.4	7.4
22	+25	Florida	36.4	19.8
23	-14	Florida State	36.2	8.0
24	-8	Stanford	36.1	0.0
25	+9	South Florida	36.0	13.4

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(30) Boise State only beat (107) Washington State by three a week after Wazzu lost to FCS Eastern Washington.

(34) Toledo bested FCS Maine 45-3, but the Math was expecting a 60-point win. Tough audience.

(35) Arkansas similarly beat (69) TCU 41-38, but the Math thought Arkansas should win by 7, and TCU looked better statistically.

(38) West Virginia struggled against Bo Pelini's Youngstown State, but came up with the 38-21 victory.

(44) Georgia eked out a 2-point win against FCS Nicholls State.

(64) Duke opened their conference schedule by losing to (26) Wake Forest who, at one win, have matched their conference record from last season.

(65) Illinois lost to (51) North Carolina by 25 when the Math expected them to win by 9.

(71) Utah State may have had a shot against (40) USC if the Trojans weren't determined to erase the embarrassment of the previous week's loss to (2) Alabama.

Team worse than the average FCS team: North Texas and Charlotte actually beat their FCS opponents this week, so the lone spot goes to (129) Georgia State who ceded 464 rushing yards on their way to a 48-14 loss to (18) Air Force.

Largest improvement in rank: +51 Tulane bounced back from a 7-3 loss to (26) Wake Forest with a 66-21 win over Southern University. The Green Wave out-rushed the Jaguars 437 yards to 54.

Largest drop in rank: -49 Middle Tennessee bounced back from a 55-0 win over Alabama A&M with a 47-24 loss at Vanderbilt.

Most consistent team: Notre Dame lost to (33) Texas but had no trouble beating (117) Nevada.

Most inconsistent team: Georgia beat UNC (who won the ACC Coastal last year) by 9 in Week One. The Bulldogs managed to beat Nicholls State (who was second-to-last in the FCS's Southland conference last year) by 2 in Week Two.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
ACC	30.02
SEC	29.99
Big Ten	29.41
Pac-12	26.16
American	25.87
Big XII	23.36
Mountain West	18.65
MAC	15.67
C-USA	15.40
Sun Belt	14.80

THREE MORE THINGS

Central Michigan-Oklahoma State
I told you to watch the CMU-OK State game. You're welcome. On what should have been the final play of the game, Cowboy QB Mason Rudolph threw the ball away on fourth down and got (correctly) called for intentional grounding. The Chippewas, down 3, were awarded one untimed down and used it for a game-winning hail and ladder. The only problem? CMU wasn't supposed to get the untimed down. The refs have been suspended, but call me crazy for thinking that you shouldn't be able to win the game on an intentional grounding penalty.

Clemsoning
Last year's national runners-up have had a hell of a time to start the 2016 season. First, they managed a six-point victory at (37) Auburn, which may yet prove defensible depending on how Auburn's year turns out. Next, they eked out another six-point win over (55) Troy, complete with a premature touchdown celebration (i.e., fumble on the half-yard line). For the record, Troy went 4-8 last year. With (3) Louisville and (23) Florida State turning in dominant performances so far, the Tigers are looking like the third-best team in the division.

Pity Northwestern
I pointed out that no Wildcat in Division I won a football game last week. (101) Northwestern's one-point loss was especially painful as it featured a field goal attempt clanging off the crossbar and a goal-line fumble. The woe continued in Evanston this week as the Wildcats lost to Illinois State. To add insult to injury, the football caromed off the left upright and through the goalposts to give Illinois State the game-winning field goal. Switch Illinois State's bounce-in this week with the Wildcats' bounce-out last week, and Northwestern's record would be 2-0 instead of 0-2.

Week 2 Preview: We Used Up All the Good Matchups in Week 1

Week One had a slew of great matchups from Oklahoma-Houston to Notre Dame-Texas. Week Two? Not so much. You want me to watch Arkansas at TCU or Virginia Tech taking on Tennessee at Bristol? How about two teams that didn't struggle against the Group of Five or FCS in Week One?

Instead of the supposed marquee games, let's look at two matchups between two teams who did well in Week One and are sitting just outside the Top 25.

RB Matt Dayes had 138 rushing yards and 2 TDs against William & Mary last week.
[Ethan Hyman / The Raleigh News & Observer]

(26) NC State at (48) East Carolina (Noon EDT, ESPN U)
East Carolina is taking a tour of the compass points as the Pirates beat up on Western Carolina last week, host North Carolina State this week, and travel to South Carolina next week. The Pirates went 5-7 last year (compared to NC State's 7-6), but put up more offensive yards and had a more impressive final score in Week One than NC State. East Carolina beat the Catamounts(!) 52-7, compared to the Wolfpack's 48-14 win over William & Mary. That said, NC State's offense was more balanced between rushing and passing, and their defense limited the Tribe to fewer yards, both strong points in NCSU's favor.

Line: NC State by 3

(37) Central Michigan at (31) Oklahoma State (Noon EDT, FS1)
Both teams had little trouble dispatching their FCS opponents last week with Oklahoma State crushing Southeastern Louisiana 61-7 and CMU topping Presbyterian 49-3. OK State beat Central last year for the first round of the home-and-home and are likely to repeat this year. But don't overlook the Chippewas who are currently ranked fourth nationwide in total defense.

Line: Oklahoma State by 6

Week 1 Recap: Best Opener Ever

Your Top 25:

The Falcons' ability to fly was not enough against Ohio State.

[Kirk Irwin/Getty Images]

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	+2	Ohio State	61.6

Bowling Green may have scored the first points of the game, but after that, the Buckeyes had no problem with the Falcons, beating last year's MAC champion 77-10.

2

-1

Alabama

58.7

Bama embarrassed USC at Jerryworld, vanquishing the Trojans 52-6.

3

+8

Michigan

49.7

The Wolverines lived up to the preseason hype, topping Hawaii 63-3. It took the Rainbow Warriors most of the first half before seeing positive yardage.

4

+16

Georgia Southern

48.5

Georgia Southern shut out FCS Savannah State and out-rushed the Tigers by 386 yards.

5

-3

Clemson

46.9

Clemson looked vulnerable against Auburn, only beating a team that went 7-6 last year by six points and only after a couple Hail Mary's went unanswered.

6	+6	Houston	45.3
7	-1	Baylor	45.3
8	+64	Miami (FL)	45.1
9	+7	Florida State	44.9
10	-5	Navy	42.8
11	+4	Boise State	41.5
12	+20	Louisville	41.0
13	+23	Georgia	40.9
14	+17	Toledo	40.8
15	+3	Washington	40.5
16	-8	Stanford	40.4
17	+9	Wisconsin	40.1
18	-5	Tennessee	39.7
19	+29	Duke	39.3
20	+21	Nebraska	38.7
21	+4	Georgia Tech	38.6
22	+48	Illinois	38.4
23	+5	West Virginia	37.7
24	+33	Utah State	37.5
25	-4	Arkansas	35.8

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(28) Air Force only beat FCS Abilene Christian 37-21.

(39) Oregon also underwhelmed, with a 53-28 victory over UC Davis. (The Math expected a 60-point win.)

(52) Utah underperformed too, beating Southern Utah 24-0 in a game the Math expected the Utes to win by 62.

(54) Michigan State only beat Furman 28-13, which is even less impressive when you realize that Furman is an FCS school that went 4-7 last year and not, in fact, one of the X-Men.

(55) Oklahoma lost to Houston 33-23 in a game that included a kick six (as made famous by the 2013 Iron Bowl). 

(57) LSU was upset by Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, losing the defensive matchup 16-14.

(67) Notre Dame lost to Texas in entertaining fashion: The Longhorns scored a touchdown to take the lead with 3:29 left in the fourth quarter, but the point-after was blocked and returned for a defensive 2-point conversion to tie the game. Two overtimes later, Texas responded to Notre Dame's field goal with a touchdown to win 50-47.

(72) North Carolina ceded a safety on an ill-advised pass within their own end zone, ceded 10 points after that, and ceded 222 yards to RB Nick Chubb in a 33-24 loss to Georgia.

(78) USC was spanked by Alabama, ending the Trojans' traditional preseason hype a little earlier than usual.

Team worse than the average FCS team:

(128) Charlotte gave up 56 points to Louisville in the first half before the game mercifully ended at 70-14.

(129) North Texas are well on their way to repeating last year's 1-11 season after losing 34-21 to SMU.

Largest improvement in rank: +64 Miami (FL) obliterated Florida A&M 70-3 under new head coach and Georgia exile Mark Richt.

Largest drop in rank: -59 The Virginia Cavaliers must be arachnophobes, losing 37-20 to the Richmond Spiders under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, a totally not made-up name.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
Big Ten	33.80
ACC	32.15
SEC	29.62
Big XII	28.92
Pac-12	26.48
American	26.43
Mountain West	22.95
MAC	21.14
Sun Belt	18.09
C-USA	16.90

TWO MORE THINGS

SEC Down
Excluding Alabama's 52-6 victory over USC, SEC teams struggled in their season openers. On average, the remaining eleven teams with non-conference opponents lost by a fraction of a point. Georgia and Texas A&M got it done against UNC and UCLA, respectively, while Auburn and Ole Miss had respectable losses to Clemson and Florida State. But after that? LSU lost to Wisconsin, and Mizzou lost to West Virginia. Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida managed unconvincing victories over Group of Five teams; Mississippi State and Kentucky couldn't even manage that.

Wildcats 0-8
As u/squirrelwatch pointed out, Week One was a bad time to be a Wildcat: Kansas State lost to Stanford. Arizona lost to BYU. Northwestern lost to Western Michigan. Kentucky lost to Southern Miss. Even the Wildcats of the FCS weren't spared as Abilene Christian, New Hampshire, Villanova, and Weber State all fell to FBS opponents in Week 1.