Saturday, October 31, 2015

Week 8 Recap/Week 9 Preview: The Retcon

We’ve updated the code this week. You’ll see that standard deviations are again being calculated, giving you a sense of a team’s variation in performance from week to week. You’ll also notice that the ranks aren’t consistent with the previous weeks’ posts because FCS teams weren’t being handled correctly in the old code. I mean, yes they were. I don’t know whose posts you were reading.

Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
SD
1
+4
Clemson
73.8
28.8

Clemson earns the top spot after blanking Miami (FL) 58-0, the Hurricanes’ worst loss ever and their last game with head coach Al Golden.

2
-1
Baylor
70.5
18.8

Baylor drops a spot after only beating Iowa State 45-27. Even worse news: QB Seth Russell, who has averaged over 300 passing yards per game, is out for the rest of the season after fracturing one of the vertebrae in his neck.

3
+1
LSU
67.2
12.2

The Tigers topped the Hilltoppers 48-20. The game was worryingly close until LSU was able to strip the ball from WKU’s kickoff returner in the third quarter and put together a short touchdown drive, giving the Tigers a 14-point lead they would never relinquish.

4
+2
Ohio State
65.5
17.0

The Buckeyes finally settled on a starting quarterback and destroyed a clearly inferior opponent, as J.T. Barrett passed for 223 yards and three TDs and ran for two more in a 49-7 win over Rutgers in Piscataway.

5
-2
Alabama
64.8
14.3

Bama looked vulnerable, holding on to beat a mediocre Tennessee squad 19-14.

6
+6
Houston
61.1
17.2
7
0
Notre Dame
61.0
12.9
8
+2
Memphis
59.9
12.5
9
+7
Oklahoma
59.1
28.6
10
+5
Stanford
58.8
26.1
11
-2
Iowa
58.4
26.7
12
-10
Utah
57.9
18.9
13
-2
Michigan State
57.7
16.4
14
0
Michigan
57.0
19.6
15
-2
TCU
56.3
17.2
16
+3
Appalachian State
54.4
17.1
17
0
Toledo
53.0
15.5
18
+3
Oklahoma State
52.2
18.2
19
-1
Navy
51.8
20.6
20
-12
Florida State
50.1
16.0
21
-1
Florida
49.7
15.2
22
+5
Ole Miss
49.2
19.0
23
+5
Duke
48.0
18.3
24
-2
Boise State
47.3
24.2
25
+1
Temple
46.9
16.1


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (35) Georgia Southern lost 31-13 to Appalachian State.
  • (36) Cal was upset by a rebounding UCLA team, 40-24.
  • (37) Texas A&M couldn’t get much going on offense in a 23-3 loss to Ole Miss.
Teams worse than the average FCS team:

  • (128) New Mexico State is 0-7 on the year and just lost 52-7 to the not-so-good Troy Trojans. (“We’re from Troy!”)
  • (129) North Texas continues their losing streak with a 30-13 loss to Marshall.
Largest improvement in rank: +18 Georgia Tech snapped their five-game losing streak with a 22-16 victory over Florida State after a blocked field goal attempt was returned for a touchdown.

Largest drop in rank: -22 Miami (FL) was embarrassed in that 58-0 rout against a Clemson.

Most consistent team: Kansas is one of three 0-7 teams and the only one in a Power Five conference. The Jayhawks have been predictable, losing close to FCS South Dakota State, losing big to Baylor and Oklahoma State, and just plain losing all their games.

Least consistent team: The Math says North Texas is the least consistent team, but how can a 0-7 team be the most inconsistent? I’m going to give this one to the mathematical runner-up, Utah State, who upset (24) Boise State by 26 in Week 7 then lost to (50) San Diego State by 34 in Week 8.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
38.27
Big XII
37.14
Pac-12
36.65
Big Ten
36.55
ACC
32.81
American
30.04
Mountain West
22.32
MAC
21.06
Sun Belt
17.13
Conference USA
15.75


Three More Things:

Pac-12 Chaos: Utah’s loss to USC has shifted the landscape in the Pac-12 South. Before, the Utes looked dominant with at least a two-game lead over everyone else in the South. Now, USC and UCLA are only one game behind the Utes with USC winning the head-to-head and the UCLA-Utah game three weeks in the future. Meanwhile, in the North, Stanford recovered from that season-opening loss at Northwestern, hasn’t loss since, and is sitting atop the North with a nice 5-0 conference record. Sitting in second? Washington State.


Three for Three: There may only be twelve unbeaten teams left, but there are three conferences (American, Big XII, and Big Ten) that each have three unbeaten teams (Memphis, Houston, and Temple; Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State; Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa). FYI: The other three lossless teams are Clemson, LSU, and Toledo.

Quadruple Overtimes: Two Week 8 games ended in 4OT. Arkansas’s offense was able to convert two fourth downs into game-preserving touchdowns, while their defense came up with a fourth-down stop in a 54-46 victory over Auburn. Three hours later and 800 miles east, Duke’s K Ross Martin would clang a could-have-been-game-winning field goal off the right upright at the end of regulation, plunging their game against Virginia Tech into overtime. Duke would end up winning as QB Thomas Sirk scampered in for a two-point conversion after the Hokies failed to convert on their 4OT try.
Games to watch next week today:

(21) Florida vs. (27) Georgia (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Both teams come to this game off a bye week. Both teams started off their season strong but have more recently lost to Alabama & Tennessee (Georgia) and to LSU (Florida). But even with those losses, the Gators are sitting atop the SEC East with a 5-1 conference record with the Bulldogs in second and a game behind. This game will likely decide who wins the SEC East.
Line: Georgia by 1.5

(1) Clemson at (38) NC State (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)
Don’t overlook NC State. The Wolfpack only gives up 16.1 ppg (good enough for 11th in the country) so don’t anticipate a 58-0 beatdown à la Clemson-Miami. However, Clemson’s defense, at 14.3 papg, is even better, and unlike NC State, Clemson has a Top 25 scoring offense as well. Combine all that with NC State’s conference woes – they’re 5-2 overall, but 1-2 in conference – and Clemson is the clear favorite.
Line: Clemson by 26

(7) Notre Dame at (25) Temple (8 PM ET, ABC)
Temple and their 8th-ranked scoring defense are looking to prove that their undefeated record is no fluke. Notre Dame and their 15th-ranked scoring offense are hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive with a one-loss record in a still crowded field of unbeatens. Regardless of whose rankings you look at, this is the only Top 25 matchup of the week.
Line: Notre Dame by 22.5

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Week 8 Preview: Thirsty Thursday


(3) Utah at (41) USC (7:30 PM ET, Fox)
Vegas is favoring USC. I guess I can rationalize that decision. USC is playing at home, and the Trojan passing game accounts for 337.3 ypg (12th in the country) while Utah's defense gives up 256 passing ypg (29th worst). But Utah has been dominant so far. The Utes are undefeated, while everyone else in the Pac-12 South has at least two conference losses. USC also just dropped a third game to Notre Dame and has had to deal with a slew of head coach drama besides. My crystal ball shows Utah.
Line: Utah by 6.5

(5) Florida State at (61) Georgia Tech (7 PM ET, ESPN 2)
Despite that #61 ranking, the Math is still pretty high on Georgia Tech, mostly due to their high-powered rushing offense. The Yellow Jackets rush for 285.7 ypg, good enough for 8th in the country. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, the Seminole defense is good at keeping you from scoring (15.2 papg - 9th in the country) and is particularly good at stymieing the run, allowing a 19th-best 113.5 rushing ypg. FSU is still undefeated, while GT has dropped the last five straight and has yet to win a conference game. The Math may be undecided, but I'm putting my rhetorical money on the Seminoles.
Line: Even

(24) Georgia Southern at (20) Appalachian St (Thursday 7:30 PM ET, ESPN U)
Though Georgia Southern and Appalachian State weren't even FBS teams two years ago, the Eagles and Mountaineers are now battling for Sun Belt supremacy. The Eagles were crowned Sun Belt champions last season during their transitional year, but were disallowed from playing a bowl game because what's the NCAA for if not to enforce arbitrary rules? Now, both teams are 5-1 overall, undefeated in conference play, and have top-ten rushing offenses. Worth tuning in for.
Line: Appalachian State by 10

(26) Cal at (38) UCLA (Thursday 9 PM ET, ESPN)
It's a sign of how weak this week's slate of games is that two of the seven games to watch are on Thursday night. Cal and UCLA are both looking to bounce back after recent losses. Cal lost two weeks ago to Utah and had a bye last week; UCLA has lost the last two against Stanford and Cal. Both teams have a pass-heavy offense characteristic of the Pac-12, though UCLA's is a bit more balanced. UCLA also has a top-25 pass defense, only allowing 176.2 passing yards per game, and the home-field advantage. 
Line: UCLA by 3

(45) Tennessee at (6) Alabama (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
It's the fourth Saturday in October, so it's time to play the game they call the Third Saturday in October. Welcome to the SEC, folks. Alabama has won the last eight, and there's no reason to expect that trend to stop. The Vols have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory thrice this year. And though Bama lost to Ole Miss, they've beaten their SEC opponents by an average of 20 points since then. Tennessee may have the 19th-most prolific rushing offense at 222.0 ypg, but they face the nation's 3rd-toughest rushing defense. (The Tide only gives up 70.9 rushing ypg.) Alabama will be smoking their illicit cigars on Saturday.

Line: Alabama by 20

(2) Clemson at (47) Miami (FL) (Noon ET, ABC)
Clemson has looked good so far; the Tigers have remained undefeated and have given (8) Notre Dame its sole loss. Miami has not looked so good; the Hurricanes are 4-2 on the season, and one of those losses was to a 3-3 Cincinnati team. Miami does have the 19th-best passing offense in the country (at 307.5 ypg), but Clemson has the 12th-best passing defense, allowing 167.5 ypg. The Tigers may yet drop a game this season; this isn't the one.
Line: Clemson by 24

(29) Texas A&M at (28) Ole Miss (7 PM ET, ESPN)
Both the Aggies and the Rebels are a decent 2-1 in conference play, but both are recovering from bad losses last week. A&M lost by 18 to Alabama at home, while Ole Miss was upset by Memphis. Ole Miss's #7 scoring offense (at 43.6 ppg) wins this one for the Rebs.
Line: Ole Miss by 12

Monday, October 19, 2015

Week 7 Recap: Welcome to Football

Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Baylor
74.1

The Bears had little trouble topping West Virginia. QB Seth Russell threw for 380 yards and five touchdowns (and rushed for one more), 199 of those yards and three of those touchdown passes went to WR Corey Coleman, and Baylor keeps its point-a-minute offense and #1 spot.

2
+1
Clemson
69.8

Clemson beat Boston College 34-17 to stay unbeaten. QB Deshaun Watson passed for 420 yards, but the Eagles got ten points off his two interceptions.

3
+1
Utah
69.0

The Utes recovered from a couple special teams mistakes and piled on 20 points in the fourth quarter to win against Arizona State. QB Travis Wilson threw for 297 yards, and RB Devontae Booker somehow ran for more yards than both teams combined.

4
+2
LSU
67.4

LSU breaks into the top five after defeating Quality Opponent™ Florida. RB Leonard Fournette ran for 180 yards and two TDs, and the kicker, Trent Domingue, got to score the game-winning touchdown on a fake field goal.

5
0
Florida State
65.6

The Seminoles also remain unbeaten after a 41-21 victory over Louisville. Florida State's two-headed offense with QB Everett Golson passing for 372 yards and RB Dalvin Cook rushing for another 163 was assisted by two, third-quarter turnovers by the Cardinals.

6
+1
Alabama
65.2
7
+5
Ohio State
63.4
8
+2
Notre Dame
60.9
9
+14
Iowa
60.1
10
+7
Memphis
59.8
11
0
Houston
59.8
12
-4
TCU
58.4
13
+13
Michigan State
58.2
14
-12
Michigan
57.0
15
+4
Stanford
56.8
16
+12
Oklahoma
55.4
17
+1
Navy
55.0
18
-4
Toledo
54.8
19
-3
Duke
53.8
20
+9
Appalachian State
53.7
21
-6
Florida
51.0
22
0
Oklahoma State
50.9
23
-14
Boise State
50.1
24
+6
Georgia Southern
49.6
25
-1
Temple
48.8

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (28) Ole Miss
  • (29) Texas A&M
  • (36) Northwestern
  • (38) UCLA
Team worse than the average FCS team: North Texas did not turn things around this week against Conference USA frontrunner WKU as the Mean Green lost by 27.

Largest improvement in rank: +30 Western Michigan put up 430 rushing yards in a 49-14 victory of Ohio.

Largest drop in rank: -26 Ohio looked like one of the better MAC teams before being upset by the Broncos.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
39.43
Pac-12
38.45
ACC
38.43
Big Ten
38.41
Big 12
38.06
American
31.65
Mountain West
23.69
MAC
22.32
Sun Belt
18.18
Conference USA
17.95