Saturday, October 31, 2015

Week 8 Recap/Week 9 Preview: The Retcon

We’ve updated the code this week. You’ll see that standard deviations are again being calculated, giving you a sense of a team’s variation in performance from week to week. You’ll also notice that the ranks aren’t consistent with the previous weeks’ posts because FCS teams weren’t being handled correctly in the old code. I mean, yes they were. I don’t know whose posts you were reading.

Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
SD
1
+4
Clemson
73.8
28.8

Clemson earns the top spot after blanking Miami (FL) 58-0, the Hurricanes’ worst loss ever and their last game with head coach Al Golden.

2
-1
Baylor
70.5
18.8

Baylor drops a spot after only beating Iowa State 45-27. Even worse news: QB Seth Russell, who has averaged over 300 passing yards per game, is out for the rest of the season after fracturing one of the vertebrae in his neck.

3
+1
LSU
67.2
12.2

The Tigers topped the Hilltoppers 48-20. The game was worryingly close until LSU was able to strip the ball from WKU’s kickoff returner in the third quarter and put together a short touchdown drive, giving the Tigers a 14-point lead they would never relinquish.

4
+2
Ohio State
65.5
17.0

The Buckeyes finally settled on a starting quarterback and destroyed a clearly inferior opponent, as J.T. Barrett passed for 223 yards and three TDs and ran for two more in a 49-7 win over Rutgers in Piscataway.

5
-2
Alabama
64.8
14.3

Bama looked vulnerable, holding on to beat a mediocre Tennessee squad 19-14.

6
+6
Houston
61.1
17.2
7
0
Notre Dame
61.0
12.9
8
+2
Memphis
59.9
12.5
9
+7
Oklahoma
59.1
28.6
10
+5
Stanford
58.8
26.1
11
-2
Iowa
58.4
26.7
12
-10
Utah
57.9
18.9
13
-2
Michigan State
57.7
16.4
14
0
Michigan
57.0
19.6
15
-2
TCU
56.3
17.2
16
+3
Appalachian State
54.4
17.1
17
0
Toledo
53.0
15.5
18
+3
Oklahoma State
52.2
18.2
19
-1
Navy
51.8
20.6
20
-12
Florida State
50.1
16.0
21
-1
Florida
49.7
15.2
22
+5
Ole Miss
49.2
19.0
23
+5
Duke
48.0
18.3
24
-2
Boise State
47.3
24.2
25
+1
Temple
46.9
16.1


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (35) Georgia Southern lost 31-13 to Appalachian State.
  • (36) Cal was upset by a rebounding UCLA team, 40-24.
  • (37) Texas A&M couldn’t get much going on offense in a 23-3 loss to Ole Miss.
Teams worse than the average FCS team:

  • (128) New Mexico State is 0-7 on the year and just lost 52-7 to the not-so-good Troy Trojans. (“We’re from Troy!”)
  • (129) North Texas continues their losing streak with a 30-13 loss to Marshall.
Largest improvement in rank: +18 Georgia Tech snapped their five-game losing streak with a 22-16 victory over Florida State after a blocked field goal attempt was returned for a touchdown.

Largest drop in rank: -22 Miami (FL) was embarrassed in that 58-0 rout against a Clemson.

Most consistent team: Kansas is one of three 0-7 teams and the only one in a Power Five conference. The Jayhawks have been predictable, losing close to FCS South Dakota State, losing big to Baylor and Oklahoma State, and just plain losing all their games.

Least consistent team: The Math says North Texas is the least consistent team, but how can a 0-7 team be the most inconsistent? I’m going to give this one to the mathematical runner-up, Utah State, who upset (24) Boise State by 26 in Week 7 then lost to (50) San Diego State by 34 in Week 8.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
38.27
Big XII
37.14
Pac-12
36.65
Big Ten
36.55
ACC
32.81
American
30.04
Mountain West
22.32
MAC
21.06
Sun Belt
17.13
Conference USA
15.75


Three More Things:

Pac-12 Chaos: Utah’s loss to USC has shifted the landscape in the Pac-12 South. Before, the Utes looked dominant with at least a two-game lead over everyone else in the South. Now, USC and UCLA are only one game behind the Utes with USC winning the head-to-head and the UCLA-Utah game three weeks in the future. Meanwhile, in the North, Stanford recovered from that season-opening loss at Northwestern, hasn’t loss since, and is sitting atop the North with a nice 5-0 conference record. Sitting in second? Washington State.


Three for Three: There may only be twelve unbeaten teams left, but there are three conferences (American, Big XII, and Big Ten) that each have three unbeaten teams (Memphis, Houston, and Temple; Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State; Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa). FYI: The other three lossless teams are Clemson, LSU, and Toledo.

Quadruple Overtimes: Two Week 8 games ended in 4OT. Arkansas’s offense was able to convert two fourth downs into game-preserving touchdowns, while their defense came up with a fourth-down stop in a 54-46 victory over Auburn. Three hours later and 800 miles east, Duke’s K Ross Martin would clang a could-have-been-game-winning field goal off the right upright at the end of regulation, plunging their game against Virginia Tech into overtime. Duke would end up winning as QB Thomas Sirk scampered in for a two-point conversion after the Hokies failed to convert on their 4OT try.
Games to watch next week today:

(21) Florida vs. (27) Georgia (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Both teams come to this game off a bye week. Both teams started off their season strong but have more recently lost to Alabama & Tennessee (Georgia) and to LSU (Florida). But even with those losses, the Gators are sitting atop the SEC East with a 5-1 conference record with the Bulldogs in second and a game behind. This game will likely decide who wins the SEC East.
Line: Georgia by 1.5

(1) Clemson at (38) NC State (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)
Don’t overlook NC State. The Wolfpack only gives up 16.1 ppg (good enough for 11th in the country) so don’t anticipate a 58-0 beatdown à la Clemson-Miami. However, Clemson’s defense, at 14.3 papg, is even better, and unlike NC State, Clemson has a Top 25 scoring offense as well. Combine all that with NC State’s conference woes – they’re 5-2 overall, but 1-2 in conference – and Clemson is the clear favorite.
Line: Clemson by 26

(7) Notre Dame at (25) Temple (8 PM ET, ABC)
Temple and their 8th-ranked scoring defense are looking to prove that their undefeated record is no fluke. Notre Dame and their 15th-ranked scoring offense are hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive with a one-loss record in a still crowded field of unbeatens. Regardless of whose rankings you look at, this is the only Top 25 matchup of the week.
Line: Notre Dame by 22.5

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