Week 5: The Week in Volatility

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	+13	Houston	57.5

The Math looked at the madness that was last week, including #1 UCLA getting upset by non-Top 25 Arizona State, and basically went:

The Cougars didn't have much trouble beating Tulsa last week with QB Greg Ward, Jr. accounting for a combined 455 yards of offense. But it's Houston's 7th-best rushing offense (305.8 ypg) and 8th-best rushing defense (82.0 yapg) that give them the top spot. No other team is in the Top 10 for both of those categories.

2

+4

Utah

57.5

The Utes--

No, the Utes...of the University of Utah? Anyway, after UCLA's loss to Arizona State yesterday and Utah's smackdown of Oregon the preceding week, the Utes are one of the two remaining undefeated Pac-12 teams (along with Cal). With Utah dominating the Pac-12, this marks my last opportunity to make a My Cousin Vinny reference with a chance of it still being funny.

3

+5

Alabama

57.3

The Tide recovered from losing to Ole Miss two weeks ago with a wet, 38-10 victory over Georgia in Athens. Georgia's four turnovers (to Bama's two) helped keep the Dawgs from scoring.

4

0

Florida State

57.1

Florida State never trailed against Wake Forest but were dominated by the Demon Deacons in most categories. The exception? Two Wake turnovers that terminated possible comebacks. The Seminoles held on to win 24-16, and FSU stays put at #4.

5

+4

Michigan

57.1

The Fighting Harbaughs Wolverines posted their second straight shutout at Maryland yesterday, the first time that's happened in 15 years. Though four other Big Ten teams are undefeated, Michigan's one loss came against a dominant Utah team. Even with the loss, Michigan has the best average margin of victory in the conference and has the 2nd-best defense in the country. That's enough to earn them the #5 spot, the highest in the Big Ten.

6	+4	Baylor	56.9
7	+5	Northwestern	56.4
8	+3	Oklahoma	55.7
9	+18	Navy	55.5
10	-3	LSU	55.3
11	+4	Clemson	54.0
12	+1	Ohio State	51.0
13	+19	Stanford	50.4
14	+5	Boise State	49.1
15	+16	Texas A&M	48.9
16	-13	Georgia	47.6
17	+24	Toledo	47.3
18	-13	Notre Dame	47.2
19	+20	Florida	47.1
20	-18	Ole Miss	46.8
21	0	Duke	46.8
22	+2	Memphis	46.4
23	+11	TCU	44.5
24	-7	West Virginia	44.2
25	+12	Iowa	44.2

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

• (26) Michigan State
• (28) UCLA
• (30) Boston College
• (32) NC State
• (33) Cal
• (40) Air Force
• (41) Wisconsin

Teams worse than the average FCS team:

• (128) North Texas
• (129) Georgia State

Largest improvement in rank: +34 Arizona State was 2-2 and ranked #88 before handing #1 UCLA its first defeat.

Largest drop in rank: -27 UCLA fell from its lofty perch at #1 out of the Top 25 after the Arizona State upset.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	35.71
ACC	34.78
Big Ten	33.72
Pac-12	33.63
Big 12	33.25
American	26.85
Mountain West	19.37
MAC	17.75
Conference USA	14.86
Sun Belt	13.53

Games to watch next week:

(9) Navy at (18) Notre Dame (3:30 PM ET, NBC)

The luck of the Irish ran out last week after a 24-22 loss at Clemson; meanwhile, Navy has quietly gone 4-0, including two wins against conference opponents as a new member of the American. The two teams are similar defensively, but the Irish sport a balanced offense while Navy strongly prefers the running game. (The Midshipmen have the third-most prolific rushing offense and the second-worst passing offense in the country.) That offensive balance combined with their home-field advantage win this one for Notre Dame.

Line: Notre Dame by 1

(7) Northwestern at (5) Michigan (3:30 PM ET, BTN)

The parallels one can draw between Northwestern and Michigan are uncanny. Both teams are resurgent this year following disappointing, 5-7 seasons last year. Both teams have stingy defenses, giving up fewer points in the country than anybody. (Michigan gave up 7.6 ppg, second only to Northwestern at 7.0 ppg.) Hell, even their Big Ten openers (a 27-0 win over Minnesota in decline and a 28-0 win over Maryland in decline) are hard to distinguish. The difference is that Michigan has put up their numbers against a tougher schedule. Harbaugh wins his first homecoming game after coming home.

Line: Michigan by 17

(45) Georgia Tech at (11) Clemson (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Georgia Tech ain't doing so hot. The Yellow Jackets destroyed two cupcakes at the start of their season, but after losses to Notre Dame, Duke, and North Carolina, Georgia Tech sits at the bottom of the ACC's Coastal Division. With the misfortune of drawing Clemson and Florida State from the Atlantic Division, the Yellow Jackets have an uphill battle back to relevance. Clemson in particular has gone 4-0, has given up less than 15 ppg (12th-best in the country), and has a Top-25 rushing defense to counter Georgia Tech's rush-heavy offense. Combine all that with the Tigers' home-field advantage, and Clemson HC Dabo Swinney will likely be doing, um, whatever this is after next week's game:

Line: Clemson by 1.5

(38) Illinois at (25) Iowa (Noon ET, ESPNU)

If you would've told me that Illinois and Iowa (who respectively went 6-7 and 7-6 last year) would start their 2015 seasons 4-1 and 5-0 (respectively) and win their Big Ten openers against Nebraska and Wisconsin (respectively), I would've raised one eyebrow and thought you merited a straitjacket. But college football is filled with wonderful surprises, and the Big Ten West is basically the opposite of what I expected it to be. Except for Purdue. Purdue still sucks.

Line: Iowa by 5.5

(23) TCU at (36) Kansas State (7:30 PM ET, Fox)

Let's be honest. TCU's 50-7 drubbing of Texas yesterday is the only impressive game either one of these teams have played. TCU has a high-octane offense, ranking 2nd in yards per game and 4th in points per game. But its defense has put up mediocre numbers, despite playing the likes of Texas, Texas Tech, SMU, and Minnesota. Kansas State's defense is better, particularly against the running game, and the Wildcats have had a tougher schedule (in that they lost to Oklahoma State). But KSU's offense is in the bottom half of basically any statistic one cares to look up. C'mon, Big 12 teams. The Math thinks you're the worst Power Five conference and thinks Houston is the best team in the country. Prove yourselves.

Line: Kansas State by 6.5

(16) Georgia at (52) Tennessee (3:30 PM ET, CBS)

The Tennessee hype machine is running out of gas. Everyone thought the Vols were back at the start of the season, but UT has blown sizable, early leads in three of its five games now, including two SEC games. Georgia is coming off of a 28-point loss to Alabama, but the SEC East race currently looks like a competition between Georgia and Florida. This is a game of "Can Georgia bounce back?" vs. "Can Tennessee bounce at all?"

Line: Georgia by 4.5

(33) Cal at (2) Utah (10 PM ET, ESPN)

Two unbeaten Pac-12 teams enter, and only one can leave. Both teams have won their games by an average of 20 points. The difference is that Utah has beaten the likes of Michigan and Oregon, while Cal has had to squeak by Texas, Washington, and Washington State.

Line: Utah by 30