(3) Utah at (41) USC (7:30 PM ET, Fox)
Vegas is favoring USC. I guess I can rationalize that decision. USC is playing at home, and the Trojan passing game accounts for 337.3 ypg (12th in the country) while Utah's defense gives up 256 passing ypg (29th worst). But Utah has been dominant so far. The Utes are undefeated, while everyone else in the Pac-12 South has at least two conference losses. USC also just dropped a third game to Notre Dame and has had to deal with a slew of head coach drama besides. My crystal ball shows Utah.
Line: Utah by 6.5
(5) Florida State at (61) Georgia Tech (7 PM ET, ESPN 2)
Despite that #61 ranking, the Math is still pretty high on Georgia Tech, mostly due to their high-powered rushing offense. The Yellow Jackets rush for 285.7 ypg, good enough for 8th in the country. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, the Seminole defense is good at keeping you from scoring (15.2 papg - 9th in the country) and is particularly good at stymieing the run, allowing a 19th-best 113.5 rushing ypg. FSU is still undefeated, while GT has dropped the last five straight and has yet to win a conference game. The Math may be undecided, but I'm putting my rhetorical money on the Seminoles.
Line: Even
(24) Georgia Southern at (20) Appalachian St (Thursday 7:30 PM ET, ESPN U)
Though Georgia Southern and Appalachian State weren't even FBS teams two years ago, the Eagles and Mountaineers are now battling for Sun Belt supremacy. The Eagles were crowned Sun Belt champions last season during their transitional year, but were disallowed from playing a bowl game because what's the NCAA for if not to enforce arbitrary rules? Now, both teams are 5-1 overall, undefeated in conference play, and have top-ten rushing offenses. Worth tuning in for.
Line: Appalachian State by 10
(26) Cal at (38) UCLA (Thursday 9 PM ET, ESPN)
It's a sign of how weak this week's slate of games is that two of the seven games to watch are on Thursday night. Cal and UCLA are both looking to bounce back after recent losses. Cal lost two weeks ago to Utah and had a bye last week; UCLA has lost the last two against Stanford and Cal. Both teams have a pass-heavy offense characteristic of the Pac-12, though UCLA's is a bit more balanced. UCLA also has a top-25 pass defense, only allowing 176.2 passing yards per game, and the home-field advantage.
Line: UCLA by 3
(45) Tennessee at (6) Alabama (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
It's the fourth Saturday in October, so it's time to play the game they call the Third Saturday in October. Welcome to the SEC, folks. Alabama has won the last eight, and there's no reason to expect that trend to stop. The Vols have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory thrice this year. And though Bama lost to Ole Miss, they've beaten their SEC opponents by an average of 20 points since then. Tennessee may have the 19th-most prolific rushing offense at 222.0 ypg, but they face the nation's 3rd-toughest rushing defense. (The Tide only gives up 70.9 rushing ypg.) Alabama will be smoking their illicit cigars on Saturday.
Line: Alabama by 20
(2) Clemson at (47) Miami (FL) (Noon ET, ABC)
Clemson has looked good so far; the Tigers have remained undefeated and have given (8) Notre Dame its sole loss. Miami has not looked so good; the Hurricanes are 4-2 on the season, and one of those losses was to a 3-3 Cincinnati team. Miami does have the 19th-best passing offense in the country (at 307.5 ypg), but Clemson has the 12th-best passing defense, allowing 167.5 ypg. The Tigers may yet drop a game this season; this isn't the one.
Line: Clemson by 24
(29) Texas A&M at (28) Ole Miss (7 PM ET, ESPN)
Both the Aggies and the Rebels are a decent 2-1 in conference play, but both are recovering from bad losses last week. A&M lost by 18 to Alabama at home, while Ole Miss was upset by Memphis. Ole Miss's #7 scoring offense (at 43.6 ppg) wins this one for the Rebs.
Line: Ole Miss by 12
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