Monday, September 21, 2015

Week 3: After the Technical Difficulties


Oy. From the almost complete lack of defensive stats at Yahoo Sports after Week 1 to the realization that LSU's strength of schedule was getting dinged for playing McNeese State despite, you know, not actually playing McNeese State, there's been a lot to fix. Luckily, I set my crack IT guy (read: brother-in-law) on it. It was fixed just in time for me not to have any time to write up Week Two. Mea culpa. Without further delay, here are Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
+2
Georgia
65.5

With so many other teams losing or otherwise underperforming last week, Georgia rises to the number one spot after handily beating South Carolina 52-20. QB Greyson Lambert went 24/25, setting an NCAA completion percentage record, and the Bulldogs currently sit atop the SEC East.

2
+6
Ole Miss
65.2

Ole Miss leads the nation in points scored per game and has beaten Bama two years in a row now. Did head coach Hugh Freeze sell his soul to the devil at a Delta crossroads? You be the judge:


3
+4
Florida State
60.7

The Seminoles sit at 3-0 and might actually have a great defense this year: Florida State has allowed 10.0 points per game thus far (6th in the FBS) compared to a 30th-best 23.0 papg last year. QB Everett Golson has impressed in a way that he did not at Notre Dame, and RB Dalvin Cook has averaged over 150 rushing yards per game, including 266 yards two weeks ago against South Florida.

4
+5
LSU
59.0

LSU has been a pleasant surprise so far this season. The Tigers finished 8-5 last year, just about in the middle of the SEC West, but have already notched two conference wins this year, against Mississippi State and a struggling Auburn squad.

5
0
Notre Dame
59.0

While Hugh Freeze covets his lucky monkey's paw, Notre Dame has smashed Texas in Week 1 and followed up with hard-fought wins against Virginia and Georgia Tech. Perhaps the Irish were inspired by Pope Francis's upcoming visit to the States?

6
-4
Ohio State
58.9
7
-6
Alabama
56.8
8
+2
UCLA
54.8
9
+2
Oklahoma
54.2
10
+3
TCU
52.2
11
+14
Northwestern
52.0
12
+2
Michigan State
51.1
13
-7
Georgia Tech
50.5
14
+15
Arizona
49.4
15
+3
Baylor
49.4
16
+3
Texas A&M
49.3
17
+11
Clemson
49.1
18
+3
Memphis
49.0
19
+7
Utah
48.4
20
-4
Florida
48.3
21
+3
Miami (FL)
47.5
22
-5
Temple
46.3
23
0
Kansas State
46.2
24
+20
NC State
45.3
25
+12
Wisconsin
43.2


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

  • (29) USC
  • (30) BYU
  • (31) Boston College
  • (33) Air Force
  • (41) Duke
Teams worse than the average FCS team: None

Largest improvement in rank: +31 North Carolina The Tar Heels crushed Illinois 48-14 in a game the Math expected them to lose by five.

Largest drop in rank: -36 Ohio only beat FCS Southeastern Louisiana by 21 and were out-rushed by 33 yards.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
42.36
ACC
38.03
Pac-12
37.35
Big 12
36.77
Big Ten
36.60
American
27.19
Conference USA
21.22
Mountain West
20.26
MAC
20.25
Sun Belt
18.42

Games to watch this week:

(8) UCLA at (14) Arizona (8 PM ET, ABC)
After USC's loss to Stanford last week, UCLA and Arizona look like the two best teams in the Pac-12 South. Arizona has yet to play anyone of consequence, while UCLA managed to vanquish serial upsetter BYU last week. Expect this game, along with Utah-Oregon (see below), to set the tone for the Pac-12 title race.
Line: UCLA by 3.5

(39) Tennessee at (20) Florida (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
The Vols-Gators matchup is the most interesting SEC game this week. Tennessee had great expectations at the start of the season before blowing a 17-point lead in a double-overtime loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago. Florida has meanwhile quietly gone 3-0, including an SEC win, albeit against lowly Kentucky. A Tennessee win may start a turnaround for the Vols; a Florida win will likely be greeted with a shrug. For now.
Line: Florida by 2

(19) Utah at (45) Oregon (8:30 PM ET, Fox)
Utah is a potentially upcoming team that has pulled off good-looking wins against Michigan, Utah State, and Fresno State. Oregon is potentially on the decline now that Marcus Mariota is playing for the Tennessee Titans; the Ducks have lost to Michigan State and won less than convincingly against Eastern Washington and Georgia State. This game will corroborate or refute those storylines as both teams commence their Pac-12 season.
Line: Oregon by 1.5


(30) BYU at (40) Michigan (Noon ET, ABC)
I have no idea what will happen in this game. Michigan is rebuilding under One True God Jim Harbaugh (blessed be thy khakis), while BYU pulled off spectacular come-from-behind wins against Nebraska and Boise State before UCLA gave them a taste of their own medicine last week. No, I have no idea what will happen in this game. That's why I want to watch.
Line: BYU by 0.5