Sunday, November 8, 2015

Week 10 Recap: Ozymandias

Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
SD
1
0
Clemson
79.0
23.6

No Clemsoning for this year’s batch of Tigers. Florida State kept it close, but Clemson’s defense came up with key stops, and the Tigers’ offense put the game away in the fourth quarter. Clemson beat FSU 23-13, the first time since 2011, and clinched the ACC Atlantic.

2
+2
Ohio State
66.0
19.2

Ohio State only beat the struggling Golden Gophers by 14 in Columbus, but the Buckeyes rise two spots anyway after LSU’s loss and a poor performance by Baylor.

3
-1
Baylor
65.3
17.7

QB Jarrett Stidham looked good filling in for Seth Russell, throwing for 419 yards, three TDs, and no interceptions, but Kansas State did not go down easily. It took a last-minute interception by Baylor to seal the 31-24 victory over the Wildcats.

4
+1
Alabama
63.2
14.1

Bama’s defense had no problem shutting down LSU’s star RB Leonard Fournette. Fournette was limited to just 31 yards – two Bama RBs (Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake) had more – and the Tide dominated LSU, winning 30-16.

5
+1
Houston
62.9
16.2

Houston’s defense helped put the Cougars up early with a pick-six and a safety, but Cincinnati clawed their way back, scoring two touchdowns with two-point conversions. The Cougar defense held when it needed to hold though, forcing a turnover on downs and holding on to a 33-30 win. Houston is now the only undefeated team remaining in the American.

6
+52
North Carolina
61.6
20.5
7
+7
Navy
61.1
18.3
8
0
Notre Dame
61.1
8.9
9
-6
LSU
59.4
16.4
10
-1
Oklahoma
57.7
28.0
11
0
Iowa
57.1
23.7
12
+3
Stanford
55.3
21.5
13
+3
Michigan
54.6
21.5
14
-1
Utah
54.2
18.0
15
+5
Florida State
52.4
12.0
16
+1
Florida
51.6
21.6
17
-10
TCU
51.5
19.5
18
-6
Michigan State
50.6
16.3
19
+2
Oklahoma State
50.4
11.6
20
-10
Memphis
50.0
21.1
21
+1
Boise State
49.0
25.9
22
-4
Toledo
47.6
15.8
23
+1
Wisconsin
46.8
13.6
24
+5
Air Force
45.5
23.8
25
-6
Appalachian State
44.2
26.4


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(27) USC managed to top a beat-up Arizona squad but needed a fourth-quarter rally to do so. The Trojans ended up winning by eight in a game the Math expected them to win by 25.

(28) Ole Miss lost in dramatic fashion to Arkansas in overtime. On fourth and 25, down seven, Arkansas TE Hunter Henry caught the pass, lateraled the ball as he’s tackled back toward scrimmage, where it’s recovered by Alex Collins who ran for the first down. Arkansas ended up punching in the touchdown two plays later and decided to end the game right there with a two-point conversion try. QB Brandon Allen should have been sacked, but Ole Miss’s Marquis Haynes grabbed Allen’s facemask, giving the Hogs another try. Allen promptly dove into the end zone for the win.

Team worse than the average FCS team:

(128) Kansas joins the Club of Ignominy after a 59-20 loss to Texas keeps the Jayhawks’ winless season alive.

(129) North Texas keeps the bottom spot after being dominated by Louisiana Tech.

Largest improvement in rank: +52 North Carolina rises meteorically after exorcising the Blue Devils 66-31 in a week that saw the Math revise the strength of the whole ACC upward.

Largest drop in rank: -18 Cal and Iowa State gave up a combined 1,461 yards in double-digit losses to Oregon and Oklahoma, respectively.

Most consistent team: Northern Illinois has beaten up an FCS team and MAC bottom-dwellers, lost to Power Five opponents, and kept things close against the other MAC contenders, culminating in this week’s five-point win over the not-quite-so-undefeated-anymore-but-never-mind Toledo Rockets.

Least consistent team: The same UNLV team has beaten up an FCS Idaho State team, winning 80-8, and has given bottom-dwelling Fresno State its only FBS win.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
ACC
37.96
SEC
35.96
Big Ten
35.14
Big XII
33.62
Pac-12
32.53
American
29.55
Mountain West
22.31
MAC
21.21
Sun Belt
15.71
Conference USA
14.62

Three More Things

This Week’s Chaos Sighting: SEC West: In addition to Alabama handing LSU its first loss and the wild ending of the Arkansas-Ole Miss game, Auburn upset Texas A&M at College Station. (Mississippi State, for its part, unsurprisingly beat Mizzou 31-13.) Though Alabama is now the only SEC West team that controls its own destiny, five teams (Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Arkansas) are still technically in the running for the divisional crown. Meanwhile in the East, the only surprise was Florida having to squeak by Vanderbilt, but that two-point victory clinched the division for the Gators.

Michigan State-Nebraska: Fortune finally cut the other way for the hitherto lucky Spartans and luckless Cornhuskers. After blowing fourth-quarter leads five times earlier this season, Nebraska staged a comeback of their own, going up by one with 17 seconds left on a controversial play. The receiver stepped out of bounds before coming back in to catch the pass, but the officials ruled that he was forced out (wrongly, I believe). MSU QB Connor Cook took too long to make a decision on the final play; Cook ended up throwing the ball away, but the ball landed out of bounds after time expired. Sparty’s loss is precisely what Michigan needs to win the Big Ten East. If Michigan wins out and Michigan State loses once more, a definite possibility given that State must take on Ohio State in Columbus and then host a good Penn State team, the Wolverines will travel to Indianapolis. Even Penn State could win if the Nittany Lions win out and Ohio State loses out. OSU and MSU still control their own destinies, but State’s loss makes the race for the Big Ten East that much more interesting.


Five Unbeatens Fall: LSU lost to Alabama and ceded control of the SEC West. Toledo lost a Tuesday-night game to Northern Illinois, opening up the race for the MAC West. Nebraska pulled off the upset to hand MSU its first loss, similarly opening up the competition for the Big Ten East. Oklahoma State upset TCU, staying perfect themselves. And Navy seemed to have no trouble handing Memphis its first loss, keeping the Midshipmen’s chances of winning the American West alive. Six unbeatens remain: (1) Clemson, (2) Ohio State, (3) Baylor, (5) Houston, (11) Iowa, and (19) Oklahoma State. 

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