Amara Darboh [MGoBlog]
(6) Ohio State at (11) Michigan (Noon ET, ABC)
Ohio State lost a defensive match against Michigan State last week and promptly fell apart like a wet gingerbread house. RB Ezekiel Elliott publicly criticized the play calling, and he and a couple other players announced they'll be bolting for the NFL. I paranoically considered that this was all A RUSE; either way, the Buckeyes will have their shit together for The Game. The Bucks favor the rush with Elliott being the seventh most prolific runner in the country. The Wolverines have not had much luck in the running game, but they've figured out the aerial attack with QB Jake Rudock now having the best QBR in the Big Ten. Expect this game to be another defensive battle though, as both Michigan and Ohio State have Top Ten defenses.
Line: Michigan by 2
Keenan Reynolds [Stew Milne-AP]
(4) Navy at (12) Houston (Friday Noon ET, ABC)
Navy and Houston are both in the Top Ten in terms of margin of victory. But while Houston's offense is nicely balanced between the run and the pass, Navy's is heavily weighted toward the run. (If not for Georgia Southern, the Midshipmen would have the most lopsided rush-oriented offense.) The two one-loss teams are playing for the American West crown and a likely New Year's Six berth.
Navy and Houston are both in the Top Ten in terms of margin of victory. But while Houston's offense is nicely balanced between the run and the pass, Navy's is heavily weighted toward the run. (If not for Georgia Southern, the Midshipmen would have the most lopsided rush-oriented offense.) The two one-loss teams are playing for the American West crown and a likely New Year's Six berth.
Line: Navy by 12.5
Christian McCaffrey [Ezra Shaw-Getty Images]
(8) Notre Dame at (10) Stanford (7:30 PM ET, Fox)
With Stanford at two losses and Notre Dame falling out of the Playoff Four after a less-than-impressive win over Boston College, both the Cardinal and the Irish need a win to stay in contention (and probably a loss or two by someone ahead of them as well). Stanford can afford an ugly win as they also have the Pac-12 title game to impress the Committee; the Irish, too proud to join a conference, need to look damn good here for a shot at the national championship.
With Stanford at two losses and Notre Dame falling out of the Playoff Four after a less-than-impressive win over Boston College, both the Cardinal and the Irish need a win to stay in contention (and probably a loss or two by someone ahead of them as well). Stanford can afford an ugly win as they also have the Pac-12 title game to impress the Committee; the Irish, too proud to join a conference, need to look damn good here for a shot at the national championship.
Line: Stanford by 7
Third-string QB Chris Johnson [Tim Heitman-USA Today]
(5) Baylor at (15) TCU (Friday 7:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Both Baylor and TCU are stereotypical Big XII teams with high-powered offenses and mediocre defenses. TCU's defense is slightly better than Baylor's, but the Bears' offense is light-years ahead of everyone else. Baylor scores a touchdown more per game and notches 56 more yards per game than the next best teams (Texas Tech and TCU, respectively). The Bears will be starting their third-string QB, but Chris Johnson looked good in the second half of the Oklahoma State game last week. Baylor needs to win out and needs Oklahoma to lose in order to win the Big XII crown. TCU is out of contention, but the Horned Frogs can play the spoiler that Oklahoma State needs.
Both Baylor and TCU are stereotypical Big XII teams with high-powered offenses and mediocre defenses. TCU's defense is slightly better than Baylor's, but the Bears' offense is light-years ahead of everyone else. Baylor scores a touchdown more per game and notches 56 more yards per game than the next best teams (Texas Tech and TCU, respectively). The Bears will be starting their third-string QB, but Chris Johnson looked good in the second half of the Oklahoma State game last week. Baylor needs to win out and needs Oklahoma to lose in order to win the Big XII crown. TCU is out of contention, but the Horned Frogs can play the spoiler that Oklahoma State needs.
Line: Baylor by 8.5
Dalvin Cook [Mark Wallheiser-AP]
(16) Florida State at (14) Florida (7:30 PM ET, ESPN)
At two losses and overshadowed by Clemson, the Seminoles are almost certainly not going to the Playoff. Florida, despite having to eke out a win over Florida Atlantic last week, has one loss and a ticket to the SEC Championship, and can break into the Playoff Four by winning out. But first, the Gators have to get past the Seminoles. Both teams have Top 25 defenses, but Florida State also has a Top 25 scoring offense at 36 ppg. The Seminoles may not get to go to the Playoff this year, but they can still spoil Florida's chances.
At two losses and overshadowed by Clemson, the Seminoles are almost certainly not going to the Playoff. Florida, despite having to eke out a win over Florida Atlantic last week, has one loss and a ticket to the SEC Championship, and can break into the Playoff Four by winning out. But first, the Gators have to get past the Seminoles. Both teams have Top 25 defenses, but Florida State also has a Top 25 scoring offense at 36 ppg. The Seminoles may not get to go to the Playoff this year, but they can still spoil Florida's chances.
Line: Florida State by 0.5
Samaje Perine and Sterling Shepard celebrate by levitating.
[Ronald Martinez-Getty Images]
(3) Oklahoma at (20) Oklahoma State (8 PM ET, ABC)
Oklahoma is the definite favorite here. Their offense scores more points, picks up more yards, and is more balanced than Oklahoma State's. More importantly, their defense is also better across the board, and their pass defense--the best in the Big XII--will slow down the Cowboys' Top Ten passing offense. An Oklahoma win clinches the conference for the Sooners; the Cowboys need both a win over Oklahoma and a Baylor loss (hint, hint, TCU). Bedlam will decide the Big XII.
Oklahoma is the definite favorite here. Their offense scores more points, picks up more yards, and is more balanced than Oklahoma State's. More importantly, their defense is also better across the board, and their pass defense--the best in the Big XII--will slow down the Cowboys' Top Ten passing offense. An Oklahoma win clinches the conference for the Sooners; the Cowboys need both a win over Oklahoma and a Baylor loss (hint, hint, TCU). Bedlam will decide the Big XII.
Line: Oklahoma by 19
Big Ten Football [Matthew Holst-Getty Images]
(7) Iowa at (58) Nebraska (Friday 3:30 PM ET, ABC)
Iowa has clinched the Big Ten West, has remained undefeated, and has done so by playing relatively boring football. Their offense is balanced and un-flashy, and their defense is good, particularly at stopping the run. Nebraska has played some interesting games, usually for the wrong reasons. The Cornhuskers sit at 5-6, and five of those six losses have involved allowing a fourth-quarter comeback. On the other hand, Nebraska has handed Michigan State its only loss. That makes this game hard to predict. Iowa running away with it, the Huskers allowing their sixth comeback to the Hawkeyes, and Nebraska fighting their way to bowl eligibility against a Playoff-contending team all seem equally likely.
Iowa has clinched the Big Ten West, has remained undefeated, and has done so by playing relatively boring football. Their offense is balanced and un-flashy, and their defense is good, particularly at stopping the run. Nebraska has played some interesting games, usually for the wrong reasons. The Cornhuskers sit at 5-6, and five of those six losses have involved allowing a fourth-quarter comeback. On the other hand, Nebraska has handed Michigan State its only loss. That makes this game hard to predict. Iowa running away with it, the Huskers allowing their sixth comeback to the Hawkeyes, and Nebraska fighting their way to bowl eligibility against a Playoff-contending team all seem equally likely.
Line: Iowa by 3.5
Chad Kelly [Rogelio V. Solis-AP]
(19) Ole Miss at (37) Mississippi State (7:15 PM ET, ESPN2)
Ole Miss had little trouble besting LSU last week and improved their chances of winning the SEC West from 0.08% to 0.2%. Next stop: The Egg Bowl. The Rebels are favored here; their defense and Mississippi State's are similar, but their offense gets 62 more yards and an extra touchdown per game. The sticking point remains having to rely on an Auburn team with two wins in the SEC to hand Alabama its second loss of the season.
Ole Miss had little trouble besting LSU last week and improved their chances of winning the SEC West from 0.08% to 0.2%. Next stop: The Egg Bowl. The Rebels are favored here; their defense and Mississippi State's are similar, but their offense gets 62 more yards and an extra touchdown per game. The sticking point remains having to rely on an Auburn team with two wins in the SEC to hand Alabama its second loss of the season.
Line: Ole Miss by 7
Honorable Mention:
- (29) UCLA at (26) USC (3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2) The Battle for Los Angeles decides the war for the Pac-12 South. USC (-12) has the advantage.
- (47) Penn State at (9) Michigan State (3:30 PM ET, ESPN) Michigan State (-18) wins the Big Ten East with a win here and does not with a loss.
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