Sunday, November 15, 2015

Week 11 Recap: The Mighty Fall

Your Top 25:
This guy ain't gonna catch Deshaun Watson.

Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
SD
1
0
Clemson
63.6
23.6

Syracuse kept it close, but QB Deshaun Watson accounted for 465 total yards of offense in a 37-27 victory over the Orange.

2
0
Ohio State
62.1
20.6

The Buckeyes had little problem running over the Illini with RB Ezekiel Elliott accounting for 181 rushing yards in Ohio State’s 28-7 win.

3
+1
Alabama
61.1
17.9

Alabama beat the Bulldogs 31-6. Mississippi State actually got more yards and more first downs, but Alabama’s defense forced some key stops and notched a couple turnovers, and RB Derrick Henry ran for 204 yards. Bama hasn’t technically clinched the SEC West, but the wave function is slowly and surely collapsing.

4
+6
Oklahoma
59.4
29.0

If the one-eyed man is king in the land of the blind, then does the team that actually has a defense win the Big XII? Oklahoma sure thinks so, as they limit Baylor’s explosive offense to 34 points, force two interceptions from backup QB Jarrett Stidham, and hand the Bears their first loss of the season.

5
+2
Navy
57.3
22.6

Navy ran over SMU, and QB Keenan Reynolds set an NCAA record after scoring the 78th through 81st rushing touchdowns of his career.

6
-1
Houston
55.6
15.8
7
-4
Baylor
54.1
18.9
8
0
Notre Dame
53.9
10.5
9
+2
Iowa
52.6
22.0
10
+3
Michigan
48.5
19.6
11
+1
Stanford
48.3
21.2
12
+4
Florida
47.8
21.3
13
+5
Michigan State
47.5
15.1
14
+3
TCU
47.0
19.7
15
-1
Utah
46.9
18.2
16
+3
Oklahoma State
46.6
14.1
17
-8
LSU
45.1
22.1
18
+2
Memphis
44.2
21.8
19
-4
Florida State
44.0
17.7
20
+2
Toledo
43.9
15.0
21
+12
Georgia Southern
42.7
24.7
22
+5
USC
42.7
13.8
23
0
Wisconsin
42.5
13.6
24
+1
Appalachian State
42.0
25.0
25
+3
Ole Miss
41.3
18.3


Teams falling out of the Top 25:

(26) Air Force beat Utah State 35-28, but the Math expected the Falcons to win by 25.

(29) Boise State was upset by New Mexico 31-24. The Lobos’ ten points off four Boise turnovers proved to be the difference.

(41) North Carolina had no problem topping Miami (FL), but the Math undoes the ACC’s inflated standing from last week.

Team worse than the average FCS team:

(128) North Texas moves up from the bottom spot after only losing at Tennessee 24-0.

(129) Eastern Michigan sinks to last after only rushing for 59 yards in a 28-17 loss at home to UMass.

Largest improvement in rank: +15 Colorado State ran for a season-best 325 yards in a 49-35 victory over UNLV.

Largest drop in rank: -37 Boston College was limited to 28 rushing yards in a 24-8 loss to NC State. The Eagles have yet to win a conference game and are now officially bowl ineligible.

Most consistent team: 9-1 Notre Dame has had no surprises with wins over inferior teams and their lone loss coming against (1) Clemson.

Least consistent team: New Mexico gets the nod after upsetting Boise State this week despite losing to 4-6 San Jose State three weeks ago.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
32.37
Big XII
31.20
Big Ten
31.07
Pac-12
30.44
ACC
26.97
American
25.73
Mountain West
19.58
MAC
18.34
Sun Belt
14.70
Conference USA
13.18

THREE MORE THINGS


Pac-12 Out: We all knew that the Pac-12 might be left out of the Playoff, entering this week as the only Power Five conference without an undefeated team not named “SEC,” but I don't think any of us expected it to happen like this. Hosting Utah, Arizona came out to an early lead, but Utah came back, and a fourth-quarter tie held as Arizona’s QB Anu Solomon came out after an un-penalized helmet-to-helmet hit; backup QB Jerrard Randall was 1 for 5, but the one completion was what ended up being Arizona’s game-winning touchdown in 2OT. Earlier at Stanford, Oregon took a twelve-point lead in the third quarter, and Stanford’s comeback was hampered by two fumbles by QB Kevin Hogan. Down eight on the Oregon 4 with 14 seconds to go, Hogan threw the needed TD pass, but the hurried pass on the subsequent two-point conversion was broken up by Oregon’s Joe Walker. Now everybody in the Pac-12 has at least two losses. At least Stanford is still atop the North and can clinch the division with a win over Cal or an Oregon loss to USC or to Oregon State. Utah on the other hand, is now tied with USC but has lost the head-to-head. UCLA, now one game behind after losing to Wazzou in similarly dramatic fashion, can also take the South with games against both Utah and USC ahead.


The SEC West Wave Function: Five teams entered Week 11 with at least an outside shot of winning the SEC West. Not so anymore after Alabama beat Mississippi State and Arkansas upset LSU. Now, LSU, Arkansas, and Ole Miss sit 1.5 games back with 1.5 games left to play, and LSU and Arkansas have already lost to Bama. The only team that can wrest the West away from the Crimson Tide is Ole Miss, as they’ve won the head-to-head matchup against the Tide. For the Rebels to get the invitation to the Georgia Dome though, they will have to win out against LSU and Mississippi State, and Alabama must lose to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide clinches the West if any one of those three things fails to happen.

[Bradley Leeb/AP]

Big Ten Contenders Win: Ohio State beat Illinois 28-7. Michigan State beat Maryland 24-7, though QB Connor Cook came out with a shoulder injury and stayed out as a “precaution.” Michigan survived the upset scare and beat Indiana 48-41 in 2OT. Iowa recovered the on-side kick to top Minnesota 40-35 and stay perfect in the West. Northwestern beat bottom-dwelling Purdue 21-14, but doesn’t have enough games left on their schedule to overcome the two-game gap between the Wildcats and the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin and Penn State had byes. (And yes, Penn State can still win the East provided that Michigan and Michigan State both lose to Penn State and both beat Ohio State. The tiebreakers in the ensuing four-way tie for the East would then go the Nittany Lions’ way.)

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