Don't let the football touch the ground! The ground is lava!
[Brooke Lavalley-Columbus Dispatch]
(13) Michigan State at (2) Ohio State (3:30 PM ET, ABC)
Spartan quarterback Connor Cook is arguably the best quarterback in the Big Ten. Too bad for him that the Buckeyes have one of the best defenses in the country, ranking in the Top 10 in terms of points, total yards, and passing yards allowed. Unlike last year, this game won't entirely decide the Big Ten East, as Michigan and Penn State are still in the running, but it'll come close.
Line: Ohio State by 16
WR Corey Coleman
[USA Today Sports]
(7) Baylor at (16) Oklahoma State (7:30 PM ET, Fox)
Baylor misses first-string QB Seth Russell. The Bears averaged over 60 ppg before his season-ending injury and have scored only 32.5 ppg since, a devastating dropoff as their opponent strength picks up. Baylor remains the highest-scoring team in the country, but Oklahoma State is also in the Top Ten (along with three other Big XII teams). At least this week, the Bears face a merely slightly-above-average defense instead of Oklahoma's Top 25 defense.
Baylor misses first-string QB Seth Russell. The Bears averaged over 60 ppg before his season-ending injury and have scored only 32.5 ppg since, a devastating dropoff as their opponent strength picks up. Baylor remains the highest-scoring team in the country, but Oklahoma State is also in the Top Ten (along with three other Big XII teams). At least this week, the Bears face a merely slightly-above-average defense instead of Oklahoma's Top 25 defense.
Line: Baylor by 12
The way is shut.
[Jerome Miron-USA Today Sports]
(14) TCU at (4) Oklahoma (8 PM ET, ABC)
Speaking of unfortunate injuries in the Big XII, TCU will be without first-string QB Trevone Boykin and leading receiver Josh Doctson this week. They're the reason why TCU is in the Top 5 in terms of total yards, passing yards, and points per game. Oklahoma's offense is not far behind (and is in fact ahead in terms of points scored per game), and the Sooners' defense is the best in the Big XII. The future looks bleak for the Horned Frogs who need to win tonight to stay in contention for both the Big XII title and the Playoff.
Speaking of unfortunate injuries in the Big XII, TCU will be without first-string QB Trevone Boykin and leading receiver Josh Doctson this week. They're the reason why TCU is in the Top 5 in terms of total yards, passing yards, and points per game. Oklahoma's offense is not far behind (and is in fact ahead in terms of points scored per game), and the Sooners' defense is the best in the Big XII. The future looks bleak for the Horned Frogs who need to win tonight to stay in contention for both the Big XII title and the Playoff.
Line: Oklahoma by 20
WR Laquon Treadwell
[Spruce Derden-USA Today]
(17) LSU at (25) Ole Miss (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Ole Miss is the only team not named Alabama that can win the SEC West. Their chances of doing so are only about 0.08% as the Rebels have to beat both LSU and Mississippi State and (least likely of all) have a 5-5 Auburn team upset the Crimson Tide. An LSU win would clinch the West for Bama. (How does that feel, Tiger fans?) Ole Miss has a good chance against LSU at least. Their rushing defense is in the Top 25, only allowing 125.7 ypg; this may be the third week in a row that Leonard Fournette is shut down. And the Rebels' Top Ten passing offense will likely be too much for an LSU passing defense that allows 208.9 passing yards per game.
Ole Miss is the only team not named Alabama that can win the SEC West. Their chances of doing so are only about 0.08% as the Rebels have to beat both LSU and Mississippi State and (least likely of all) have a 5-5 Auburn team upset the Crimson Tide. An LSU win would clinch the West for Bama. (How does that feel, Tiger fans?) Ole Miss has a good chance against LSU at least. Their rushing defense is in the Top 25, only allowing 125.7 ypg; this may be the third week in a row that Leonard Fournette is shut down. And the Rebels' Top Ten passing offense will likely be too much for an LSU passing defense that allows 208.9 passing yards per game.
Line: Ole Miss by 3
QB Cody Kessler
[Justin Edmonds-Getty Images]
(22) USC at (28) Oregon (3:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Both the Trojans and the Ducks have recovered from disappointing starts to their seasons, have beaten the early favorites, and are now in contention for the Pac-12. The difference is that Stanford is still the favorite in the North with Oregon needing an Ole Miss-like list of things to happen to win the division (wins over USC and Oregon State and a Stanford loss to Cal), while USC is in control of the South. Oregon has the fourth-best rushing offense in the country, but USC has one of the better rushing defenses in the Pac-12. On the other side of the ball, USC has one of the better passing offenses in the Pac-12, while Oregon has the third-worst passing defense in the country. The Ducks can keep it close, but USC has the advantage.
Both the Trojans and the Ducks have recovered from disappointing starts to their seasons, have beaten the early favorites, and are now in contention for the Pac-12. The difference is that Stanford is still the favorite in the North with Oregon needing an Ole Miss-like list of things to happen to win the division (wins over USC and Oregon State and a Stanford loss to Cal), while USC is in control of the South. Oregon has the fourth-best rushing offense in the country, but USC has one of the better rushing defenses in the Pac-12. On the other side of the ball, USC has one of the better passing offenses in the Pac-12, while Oregon has the third-worst passing defense in the country. The Ducks can keep it close, but USC has the advantage.
Line: USC by 2.5
This is not how you tackle Matt Breida.
[Todd Bennett-Getty Images]
(21) Georgia Southern at (31) Georgia (7 PM ET, ESPN U)
Georgia Southern has the rushing-est offense in college football, running for more yards than anyone else (378.9 ypg)...and passing for fewer yards than anyone else (64.1 ypg). Georgia's rushing defense is decent, allowing 139.6 ypg (36th), and only allowing 17.9 ppg (14th). I don't agree with the Math saying that the Bulldogs are underdogs, but I do agree with the Math (and Nick Saban) that Georgia should be on upset alert this week.
Georgia Southern has the rushing-est offense in college football, running for more yards than anyone else (378.9 ypg)...and passing for fewer yards than anyone else (64.1 ypg). Georgia's rushing defense is decent, allowing 139.6 ypg (36th), and only allowing 17.9 ppg (14th). I don't agree with the Math saying that the Bulldogs are underdogs, but I do agree with the Math (and Nick Saban) that Georgia should be on upset alert this week.
Line: Georgia Southern by 2
Honorable Mention
- (32) UCLA at (15) Utah (3:30 PM ET, Fox) Utah (-14.5) and UCLA both need to win to stay in contention for the Pac-12 South.
- (18) Memphis at (35) Temple (Noon ET, ESPN U) Memphis (-10.5) and Temple both used to be undefeated darlings of the American Conference but now both sit at 8-2.
- (30) Northwestern at (23) Wisconsin (3:30 PM ET, BTN) As Iowa has about a one-in-a-thousand chance of not clinching the Big Ten West in the next couple weeks, Wisconsin (-12.5) and Northwestern are playing for second.
- (10) Michigan at (44) Penn State (Noon ET, ABC) To keep their title hopes alive, both Michigan (-15) and Penn State need to win this week and have the team to whom they've already lost lose.
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