Who will win...the Pac-12?

Pac-12 North

Team	Conf	Ovrl
#7 Stanford	6-1	8-1
#5 Oregon	5-1	8-1
#55 Oregon State	4-2	6-3
#21 Washington	3-3	6-3
#80 Washington State	2-4	4-5
#109 Cal	0-7	1-9

With their win over Oregon last week, Stanford is half a game ahead and holds the crucial tie-breaker if both the Cardinal and the Ducks win out. Oregon needs Stanford to lose at least once, and this week's Stanford-USC game is the Ducks' best hope. Should the Cardinal lose to USC, though, an unlikely second loss by Oregon would put Stanford back on top.

Oregon State could also win the Pac-12 North, but the Beavers need to win out (against Arizona State, Washington, and Oregon) and, having already lost to Stanford, they need Stanford to lose out (against USC and Cal). I put the odds of this happening at about 1 in 500 trillion.

Pac-12 South

Team	Conf	Ovrl
#10 Arizona State	5-1	7-2
#18 UCLA	4-2	7-2
#23 USC	4-2	7-3
#26 Arizona	3-3	6-3
#47 Utah	1-5	4-5
#98 Colorado	0-6	3-6

Things are a bit more complicated in the Pac-12 South with both head-of-the-pack Arizona State and second-place UCLA still controlling their own destinies. UCLA has an uphill climb though with Washington, Arizona State, and USC left on their schedule. USC could still win, though they've lost the head-to-head with Arizona State. Arizona could also still win, but being two games behind the Sun Devils and having lost against UCLA and USC, the scenarios in which the Cardinals win are unlikely. Here are the likeliest scenarios to the championship game open to each team:

Arizona State

• ASU wins out (against Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona).
• ASU loses only to UCLA, and UCLA loses to Washington or USC.
• ASU loses only to Arizona.
• ASU loses only to UCLA and Arizona, UCLA loses to Washington and USC, and USC loses to Stanford.

UCLA

• UCLA wins out.
• UCLA beats Arizona State and USC but loses to Washington, and ASU loses to Arizona.

USC

• USC wins out (against Stanford, Colorado, and UCLA) and Arizona State loses to UCLA and Arizona.
• USC loses only to Stanford, Arizona State loses to UCLA and Arizona, and UCLA beats Washington.

Arizona

• Arizona wins out (against Washington State, Oregon, and Arizona State), Arizona State loses to Oregon State, USC loses to UCLA and either Stanford or Colorado, and UCLA loses to Washington and Arizona State.
• Arizona wins out, Arizona State loses to UCLA, UCLA loses to Washington and USC, and USC loses to Stanford and Colorado.

The chances of Arizona winning their division, though better than Oregon State's, are still only about one in 16 million. The others have at least a one in 1,000 chance:

Championship Game

With the victor of the Pac-12 likely to finish 8-1 in the conference; with Stanford victorious over Arizona State, UCLA, and likely USC; with Oregon victorious over UCLA; and with Stanford and Oregon likely finishing ahead of Arizona State (and everyone else in the South) in the BCS; the victor of the Pac-12 North will almost certainly have home-field advantage in the title game.

Stanford and Oregon are the favorites in all possible match-ups with the math considering Oregon more strongly favored. Arizona State also has a decent chance of winning the Pac-12, especially if they play Stanford. Overall, the probabilities look like this:

So say hello to your probable Pac-12 champion:

Paloalto finished the Pac-12 title game with 142 rushing yards and 1 TD.