Week 5 Rankings: Ghosts in the Machine

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Pts
1	+1	Auburn	72.6

Remember last week when I said if Auburn and Alabama were both 4-0, Auburn would be #1? Well, after dominating Louisiana Tech and an Alabama bye, the Tigers reclaim their #1 spot.

2

+2

Oklahoma

66.7

Oklahoma had a bye this week, but the Sooners mysteriously rise as Alabama mysteriously falls. More on that later.

3

0

Mississippi State

62.7

Mississippi State also had a bye this week. The Bulldogs stay put at #3.

4

+1

Texas A&M

62.5

The Aggies outlasted the Arkansas Razorbacks, winning 35-28. A&M tied the game with a little over 2 minutes in regulation, scored a touchdown on the first play of overtime, and held Arkansas to a four and out on the Razorbacks' overtime drive.

5

-4

Alabama

61.6

Alabama had a bye this week, but curiously drops four places after the Math revised their strength of schedule downward. More on that below.

6	+8	Ole Miss	61.1
7	+4	UCLA	59.3
8	-2	BYU	58.5
9	+4	Nebraska	58.4
10	-2	Baylor	55.6
11	-2	Marshall	53.1
12	+4	Georgia	53.1
13	+4	Oregon	52.7
14	-7	Notre Dame	52.1
15	+13	TCU	50.9
16	-6	Arkansas	50.3
17	+1	Wisconsin	48.9
18	+5	Georgia Tech	47.1
19	+1	LSU	45.7
20	+6	Georgia Southern	45.6
21	+14	Michigan State	43.6
22	+5	Louisville	42.9
23	+1	Arizona	42.8
24	+12	Ohio State	42.7
25	+28	Minnesota	40.9

See full rankings here.

Teams falling out of the Top 25:

• (#29) North Carolina State (lost 56-41 to Florida State at home)
• (#31) Utah (lost 28-27 to Washington State at home)
• (#32) Memphis (lost 24-3 at Ole Miss)
• (#34) Pittsburgh (lost 21-10 to Akron!? at home)
• (#39) Boston College (lost 24-21 to Colorado State at home)
• (#54) Florida (bye)

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Eastern Michigan dropped in rankings with Florida and Alabama after all three had byes this week.

Largest improvement in rank: +28 Minnesota and Air Force both pulled off convincing upsets this week. The Golden Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, and the Falcons took advantage of seven Boise State turnovers to top the Broncos 28-14.

Largest drop in rank: -42 Florida is surprisingly the team with the largest drop this week, even though the Gators had a bye. Their strength of schedule was revised downward along with their opponents, even though Alabama and Eastern Michigan also had bye weeks. Best as I can figure, Old Dominion's loss to Middle Tennessee dropped EMU's strength of schedule, which rippled through to Florida and Alabama. Florida's rank was affected more than Eastern and Bama as the Gators are closer to the middle of that bell curve, where more teams are clumped up and small changes have a bigger effect on one's rank. Ghosts in the machine, man, ghosts in the machine.

Conference Rankings

Conference	Average
SEC	45.73
Pac-12	34.29
Big 12	33.58
Big Ten	32.83
ACC	32.45
Conference USA	21.71
American	18.88
Mountain West	18.66
Sun Belt	14.13
MAC	13.86

Games to watch next week:

(#5) Alabama at (#6) Ole Miss (3:30 PM ET, TBD) Five of the top six teams are in the SEC West, and the division gives us two great games to watch on Saturday as conference play begins in earnest. Ole Miss comes off of a win over an underrated Memphis team, while the Crimson Tide had a restful bye week. Neither team has really been tested thus far, but I think home field advantage will win this one for the Rebs.

Line: Ole Miss by 3.5

(#4) Texas A&M at (#3) Mississippi State (Noon ET, ABC) The second SEC West showdown next week features an Aggie team that looked vincible this week against Arkansas and a Bulldog squad that enjoyed a week off after upsetting LSU. Will A&M be better prepared against a team that looks better on paper? Or will the Bulldogs' version of the 12th man be too much for the Aggies?

Line: Mississippi State by 7

(#2) Oklahoma at (#15) TCU (3:30 PM ET, Fox) I think TCU is underrated by the other rankings. The Horned Frogs are one of three teams remaining in the Big 12 with a perfect record, and TCU just dominated SMU to the tune of 56-0. Oklahoma will still be too much for the Frogs, but the game will be closer than you expect.

Line: Oklahoma by 13.5

(#9) Nebraska at (#21) Michigan State (8:00 PM ET, ABC) Two of the four best teams--maybe I should say, "of the four good teams"--in the Big Ten also face off next week, as the Spartans host the Huskers. So far, Michigan State has lost to Oregon while putting up big numbers against weak teams like Eastern Michigan and Wyoming. Meanwhile, Nebraska is 5-0, but their strongest opponent has been 53rd-ranked Miami (FL). The Math is giving the edge to Nebraska; I'm not so sure.

Line: Nebraska by 1.5