Week 11 Rankings

I've revamped the ranking system to take into account win-loss record explicitly. Previously, margin of victory was the only thing that mattered, meaning a team that won two games each by ten would be considered worse than a team that won one by 30 and lost another by 3. To get the math to work right, however, I had to change my reference point; now you can think of points as how much that team would beat the worst team in the FBS, instead of the average. Also, keep in mind that the change in rank for this week takes into account these changes in addition to what happened on the field.

Your Top 25:

Rk	Δ	Team	Points
1	+3	Oregon	64.3

Oregon moves up to #1 as the Ducks turn in their second-best performance of the season, murdering Cal 59-17, and as Alabama falls to Texas A&M.

2	0	Kansas State	62.4

Kansas State stays put at #2 as Oregon and Alabama leapfrog over the Wildcats. K-State beat TCU by 13, exactly what you would expect.

3

-2

Alabama

61.6

Alabama suffers its first loss, falling to Texas A&M 24-29 and dropping two spots in the rankings.

4

+5

Notre Dame

52.9

The Irish rise due to the change in the ranking system more than anything else. Can you really imagine Oregon or Bama only beating Boston College by 15?

5

+1

Florida State

51.4

The 9-1 Seminoles also benefit from the change. They would otherwise not have risen this week after beating a mediocre Virginia Tech team, 28-22.

6

-3

Texas A&M

51.4

Two-loss Texas A&M suffers from the change, dropping three spots despite upsetting Bama last week.

7	0	Florida	50.8
8	+3	Georgia	50.0
9	-4	Oklahoma	47.3
10	+13	Ohio State	45.6
11	+3	Clemson	45.2
12	-2	South Carolina	43.5
13	-1	LSU	42.6
14	+4	Texas	40.6
15	+4	Nebraska	38.8
16	+6	Stanford	38.8
17	-1	Oregon State	38.7
18	-10	Oklahoma State	38.6
19	-4	UCLA	38.1
20	+13	Louisiana Tech	36.6
21	+19	Northern Illinois	36.6
22	+6	Utah State	36.4
23	-3	USC	35.7
24	-11	Texas Tech	35.2
25	+14	Boise State	33.5

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#46) Arizona State, (#36) TCU, (#37) BYU

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts

Most consistent team: (#39) Northwestern has been consistently decent all year. This week's 7-point loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor is actually slightly better than expected, but not by much.

Most inconsistent team: 6-4 Arizona keeps this dubious title after only beating Colorado by 25.

Conference Rankings: (These rankings are based on the old system, where 0 is average.)

Conference	Average
Big 12	13.90
SEC	13.04
Pac-12	7.30
Big Ten	2.91
ACC	1.34
Big East	-2.85
Sun Belt	-3.09
Mountain West	-7.11
WAC	-7.99
Conference USA	-8.96
MAC	-12.03

Games to watch next week:

#23 USC at #19 UCLA (TBD) Whoever wins this game takes the Pac-12 South. Enough said. Line: UCLA by 1.5

#10 Ohio State at #33 Wisconsin (3:30, ABC) Given that Ohio State and Penn State are barred from the postseason, Wisconsin is already guaranteed to go to the Big Ten Championship. Still, the unbeaten Buckeyes are playing for pride, and playing the Badgers at Camp Randall is the toughest test of OSU's season. Line: Wisconsin by 1.

#22 Utah State at #20 Louisiana Tech (4:00, ESPN3) Okay, hear me out. First, both teams are undefeated in conference play and this game is the de facto conference championship, though the conference in question is the WAC. Next, both teams have impressive out-of-conference performances:  Utah St. beat Utah by an OT touchdown and lost by 2 against Wisconsin and by 3 against BYU; LT beat Illinois and Virginia and lost by 2 against Texas A&M. Finally, this game looks to be the most evenly matched contest next week. These teams are flat-out better than a lot of teams in AQ conferences, and this game is worthy of your attention.

#16 Stanford at #1 Oregon (TBD) The math missed this one because Oregon has such a huge edge over Stanford. Of course, the math said the same thing about Texas A&M at Alabama. Stanford can win the Pac-12 North by beating the Ducks then UCLA next week; Oregon will clinch with a win here. Line: Oregon by 21.