Saturday, September 21, 2013

Questionable Week 3 Rankings

Your Top 25:


Rk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Oregon
87.6

The math gave the Ducks what I thought was an optimistic line of 43.5 points last weeks. Oregon cleared even that, beating Tennessee 59-14. 

2
+9
Florida State
72.4

FSU jumps up into the Top 25 after the Seminoles trounce Nevada 62-7.

3
+3
Georgia Tech
70.5

The math has been high on Georgia Tech so far, putting them in the Top 25 since the preseason. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are relegated to the "also receiving votes" category in the official polls. While #3 may still be too high as Georgia Tech hasn't been tested yet, their 3rd best rushing offense and a rushing defense that's limited opponents to 110.5 ypg are reasons for optimism. Look for the Yellow Jackets to slip a little in the future, but finish as a Top 25 team.

4
+1
Alabama
66.6

Alabama got their revenge last Saturday, besting Texas A&M 49-42.

5
-2
Oklahoma State
66.1

Oklahoma State easily beat Lamar 59-3, but the Cowboys slide against more impressive performances.

6
-4
Baylor
65.9
7
+8
UCLA
64.0
8
+2
LSU
63.6
9
-5
Oklahoma
63.3
10
+2
Arizona
61.9
11
+2
Auburn
57.9
12
+4
Northwestern
57.7
13
+5
Ohio State
57.6
14
+21
Navy
57.2
15
+12
Washington
57.1
16
+7
Arizona State
55.7
17
0
Stanford
54.5
18
+12
Ole Miss
53.9
19
+12
Louisville
53.8
20
+13
UCF
53.8
21
-12
Michigan
53.4
22
+16
Utah State
53.2
23
-4
Clemson
52.6
24
-3
Missouri
52.6
25
-17
Wisconsin
52.1

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#26) Texas Tech, (#30) Utah, (#35) Tennessee, (#36) Texas A&M, (#37) Nebraska, (#57) Bowling Green

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Georgia State

Largest improvement in rank: +34 Pittsburgh: Pitt bounces back from a 28-point loss against Florida State with a 49-27 victory over New Mexico. FSU's win also improves their strength of schedule.

Largest drop in rank: -32 Bowling Green: BGSU was ranked at #25 last week before getting crushed by Indiana 42-10.

Most consistent team: Minnesota has had perhaps the easiest schedule so far--#114 UNLV, #125 New Mexico State, and FCS Western Illinois--and has beaten them each by three or four scores.

Most inconsistent team: Kansas State reverted to the mean last week with a 30-point win over Massachusetts, but Week One's upset loss against North Dakota State keeps them here.

Conference Rankings
Conference
Average
Pac-12
48.93
SEC
46.84
Big Ten
43.83
ACC
41.94
Big 12
40.84
American
30.89
Sun Belt
29.54
Mountain West
26.77
C-USA
23.31
MAC
20.29

Games to watch this week:

(#11) Auburn at (#8) LSU (7:45 PM ET, ABC) Both sets of Tigers have gone 3-0 so far, with LSU having strong wins over weak opponents (except TCU) and Auburn having weak wins (except vs. Arkansas State) over stronger opponents. LSU is the clear favorite, but don't discount Auburn. They may not have shown they deserve the #11 ranking yet, but I say they have a 1-in-4 shot of pulling off the upset. Line: LSU by 10


(#16) Arizona State at (#17) Stanford (7:00 PM ET, Fox) Though both teams are 2-0 so far, both underperformed last week. ASU eked out a win against Wisconsin after the officials reacted slowly to a weird play. Stanford only managed a 14-point victory over Army. Both teams were out-rushed. How these teams respond to those games today will set the tone for their Pac-12 seasons. Line: Stanford by 2

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