Friday, September 13, 2013

Dubious Week 2 Rankings

Sorry, I never quite had the time last week to post the rankings. While there's still time this week, let's present
Your Top 25:


Rnk
Δ
Team
Pts
1
0
Oregon
84.6

The Ducks took over the top spot last week after a massacre of FCS Nicholls State and a worse-than-expected performance by Alabama. They retain with a 59-10 victory over what looks to be a middling Virginia team. The Ducks have outscored these two opponents by 8 touchdowns on average (not combined) and have out-rushed them by an average of 319.5 yards.

2
+5
Baylor
69.8

Baylor similarly has had two dominating performances so far, albeit over weaker opponents, a 69-3 win over Wofford and a 70-13 win over #110 Buffalo. I doubt the Bears will stay this high, but who knows what will happen in the Big <12 this year?

3
+2
Oklahoma State
66.5

The math is high on the Cowboys again this year after a 21-3 victory over Mississippi State and a worrying 56-35 victory over UTSA, where OK State allowed the Roadrunners 504 total yards of offense. Meep, meep.

4
+4
Oklahoma
65.2

Oklahoma's 16-7 win over West Virginia is hardly cause for encouragement. It's the Sooners' ground game, out-rushing their opponents by 207 yards per game on the feet of their 12th-ranked rushing offense, that buoys Oklahoma up to the #4 spot.

5
-2
Alabama
64.5

Bama fell from their #1 perch after only beating Virginia Tech by 25 in Week 1. They fall again after a bye week, allowing a couple teams to leapfrog over them.

6
-4
Georgia Tech
63.9
7
+33
Utah
63.3
8
+8
Wisconsin
63.1
9
+4
Michigan
62.5
10
-1
LSU
59.7
11
-5
Florida State
59.2
12
+14
Arizona
59.0
13
+42
Auburn
58.6
14
+11
Tennessee
58.4
15
-4
UCLA
58.0
16
+2
Northwestern
57.1
17
+16
Stanford
56.5
18
-1
Ohio State
56.5
19
+3
Clemson
55.9
20
-8
Texas A&M
55.7
21
-2
Missouri
55.4
22
+15
Nebraska
55.4
23
+19
Arizona State
54.4
24
+8
Texas Tech
54.1
25
+4
Bowling Green
53.8

Teams falling out of the Top 25: (#27) Washington, (#30) Ole Miss, (#42) Florida, (#44) South Carolina, (#47) Notre Dame, (#48) Arkansas State, (#66) Texas, (#73) Cincinnati

Teams worse than the average FCS team: Idaho, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, Georgia State

Largest improvement in rank: +42 Auburn: Good news for Auburn fans. The Tigers seem to have improved over last year, winning last week 38-9 over last year's Sun Belt champion Arkansas State. No overtime needed.

Largest drop in rank: -52 Cincinnati: The Bearcats rose into the Top 25 after a 35-point, Week 1 win over Purdue only to come crashing down after losing 45-17 to an Illini team that struggled against Southern Illinois the week before.

Most consistent team: Memphis: Memphis had a bye in the first week and then did what you'd expect last year's team to do: lose by two scores to Duke.

Most inconsistent team: Kansas State: After finishing last season at #4, the Wildcats lost their opener to North Dakota State, then returned to average with a 21-point win over Louisiana-Lafayette.

Conference Rankings

Conference
Average
SEC
49.45
Pac-12
48.60
Big Ten
46.48
Big 12
44.19
ACC
41.96
American
31.71
Sun Belt
29.91
Mountain West
28.11
C-USA
25.17
MAC
23.69

Games to watch this week:

(#8) Wisconsin at (#23) Arizona State (10:30 PM ET, ESPN) Neither team has been challenged thus far, with three shutouts between them (against Massachusetts, Tennessee Tech, and Sacramento State, and the only reason there isn't a fourth is ASU's bye week). This game will be the first indication whether those Top 25 rankings are justified. Line: Push

(#15) UCLA at (#22) Nebraska (12:00 PM ET, ABC) Like the Wisconsin-ASU game, the UCLA-Nebraska match-up is one of the four pitting the Big Ten against the Pac-12 this weekend. Also like Wisconsin and Arizona State, UCLA and Nebraska haven't been challenged much so far. Unlike Wisconsin, however, the Cornhuskers struggled to beat Wyoming in Week 1. Line: UCLA by 9.5

(#5) Alabama at (#20) Texas A&M (3:30 PM ET, CBS) Neither team has lived up to expectations so far. Both teams' defenses, for instance, have allowed their opponents to rush for more yards than their offenses have gained in each of three games between them. Shocking considering Alabama had the nation's best rushing defense last year, and the Aggies' opponents have been Rice and Sam Houston State. A&M nearly derailed the Tide's shot at a national championship last year; I'm expecting Bama's revenge on Saturday. Line: Alabama by 20

(#14) Tennessee at (#1) Oregon (3:30 PM ET, ABC) Tennessee is riding high after strong wins against Austin Peay and Western Kentucky. But even Vols fans aren't expecting a win at Autzen. Line: Oregon by 43.5

(#33) UCF at (#26) Penn State (6:00 PM ET, BTN) UCF has had demonstrative wins, albeit over Akron and Florida International, while Penn State has had respectable victories over Syracuse and Eastern Michigan. With UCF in the AQ American Conference now, this game may be closer than you think. Line: Penn State by 8

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