National Championship Preview: Stop Making Sense

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: (1) Clemson vs. (2) Alabama
1/11 8:30 PM ET, ESPN

You may ask yourself, "How did I get here?"

[Jim Dedmon/USA Today]

(1) Clemson has had a fantastic season. Sure, they had to eke out a couple wins against (38) Louisville and (96) South Carolina. But the Tigers had some signature wins during the regular season too: Forcing several Irish turnovers to top (10) Notre Dame 24-22. Beating (14) Florida State for the first time in an Olympiad to win the Atlantic Division. The Tigers faced (17) North Carolina in the ACC Championship; the game was competitive until Clemson gained a 19-point lead in the third quarter that the Tar Heels could not surmount. The win secured Clemson's #1 ranking and a trip to the Orange Bowl; the Tigers similarly owned the second half of that game to best (4) Oklahoma 37-17. Clemson now sits at 14-0, the lone remaining undefeated team.

[USA Today]

Meanwhile, (2) Alabama started off their season with a 35-17 victory over (23) Wisconsin at Jerryworld. The Crimson Tide lost their first SEC game somewhat flukily to (11) Ole Miss; (22) Tennessee gave Bama some trouble as well, though the Tide eked out a five-point victory over the Vols. Otherwise, the Tide rolled, including shutting down Leonard Fournette to top (12) LSU. (30) Arkansas and (34) Florida did Bama a favor by handing Ole Miss two conference losses, a favor Alabama repaid by beating both by two scores, the latter in the SEC Championship. Having earned their way to the Cotton Bowl, the Tide embarrassed (9) Michigan State, shutting out the Spartans 38-0.

[Note: Rankings have been updated following the bowls. Final rankings will be posted after the championship.]

Alabama Offense vs. Clemson Defense

Letting the yards go by: Derrick running over ground

[Left: John David Mercer/USA Today

Right: Richard Shiro/AP]

Heisman winner Derrick Henry has run for 2,061 yards so far this season, more than anyone else in the country. However, Alabama does not have a Top 25 rushing offense; Henry accounts for 72% of Bama's rushing yards, and the Tide only run for 208.2 ypg (28th). Bama passes for as many yards; QB Jake Coker and leading WR Calvin Ridley are good but aren't posting elite numbers.

Led by DL Shaq Lawson (pictured), DL Kevin Dodd, and LB B.J. Goodson, the Tigers rank 7th in total defense and 5th in passing defense. Clemson leads the nation in TFLs, as does Lawson, who was injured in the Orange Bowl, but looks to return for the Championship. Clemson allows 128.8 rushing yards per game--good enough for 23rd--but Alabama has faced tougher rushing defenses against Wisconsin, Michigan State, Arkansas, and Florida, and Henry still averaged 126.5 yards against those four.

Clemson Offense vs. Alabama Defense

You may ask yourself, "Where is that Heisman house?"

[Left: USA Today | Right: LM Otero/AP]

Clemson's Deshaun Watson has thrown for 3,699 yards, run for another 1,032, and finished third in this year's Heisman balloting. Artavis Scott is Watson's main target, though nine other players have had a receiving touchdown this season. The Tigers' leading rusher is Wayne Gallman who has posted 1,482 rushing yards thus far. Add that all together and you get an offense that's balanced but leans toward passing and ranks 23rd in rushing and passing yards, 11th in total yards, and 15th in scoring.

Watson and Co. will face a vaunted Bama defense that has racked up 50 sacks this season, with DL Jonathan Allen and LB Tim Williams heading the pack. The Crimson Tide's rushing defense is the best in the nation, giving up a paltry 74.0 rushing ypg. Bama is not as good at defending the pass, giving up 184.2 ypg, but that's still good enough for 17th, and the Tide defense ranks in the Top 25 in almost every category. Even then, Clemson has faced a better defense statistically, Boston College (the nation's best), and still managed to put up 532 yards of offense against them.

You may ask yourself, "Am I right, or am I wrong?"

It's hard not to give Alabama the edge. The Crimson Tide have the nation's leading rusher, the nation's best rushing defense, and the most sacks of anyone in the nation. On top of that, Bama's turnover margin stands at +9; Clemson's at -1. But the Tigers' prowess at TFLs may be able to contain Derrick Henry, and Deshaun Watson's quarterback rating is reminiscent of the Bama-vanquishing Ole Miss Rebels' Chad Kelly, except Watson has also rushed for 1,000 yards this season.

I hesitate to promise a close game after a slew of noncompetitive New Year's Six bowls, but with two offenses anchored by Heisman contenders facing off against elite defenses, this looks like a game worthy of the National Championship. And with Bama winning that title thrice in the last seven years, my head says they're the favorite, but my heart will be rooting for the Evil Empire to lose.

Line: Alabama by 3.5