National Championship Preview

National Championship: Ohio State vs. Oregon

January 12, 8:30 PM EST, ESPN

So Far

	Ohio State	Oregon
Record	13-1	13-1
Committee Ranking	#4	#2
Dynamite Ranking	#1 (71.4 points)	#4 (62.8 points)
SoS	39.4 points (15th)	30.2 points (63rd)
Only Loss	21-35 vs. (52) Va. Tech	24-31 vs. (34) Arizona
Worst Win	42-27 vs. (84) Indiana	38-31 at (102) Wazzou
Best Win	59-0 vs. (10) Wisco	59-20 vs. (12) FSU

Ohio State struggled early; with first-string QB Braxton Miller out for the entire season, the Buckeyes lost in Week Two to a Virginia Tech team that finished the season 7-6. However, OSU figured things out, winning the next nine behind second-string QB J.T. Barrett, including close calls against Penn State and Indiana and a win over Michigan State in East Lansing that solidified Ohio State's control over the Big Ten East. Things looked bleak for Brutus as Barrett suffered a broken ankle during The Game, but Ohio State had no problem destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game under third-stringer Cardale Jones. The Buckeyes couldn't be denied the fourth playoff spot after that performance, and a 42-35 upset of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl brought them to the championship game.

Oregon also took care of the Michigan State Spartans in their one non-conference, non-cupcake game early in the season. The closest the Ducks came to a slump was in late September/early October, when they eked out a close win at Washington State and lost at home to Arizona. Then the Ducks rebounded, beating the rest of their conference opponents by two scores or more, locking up the Pac-12 North by November 8, and getting their revenge against Arizona with a 51-13 blowout in the conference championship. The Seminoles couldn't keep up with Oregon's high-speed offense in the Rose Bowl; as Wojo put it, "about half of Florida State's players were too tired even to shake the Ducks' hands after the 59-20 semifinal rout."

Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense

	Ohio State Gains	Oregon Allows
Total Yards	510 (9th)	414 (83rd)
Rushing Yards	262 (10th)	154 (50th)
Passing Yards	248 (52nd)	260 (103rd)
Points	45.0 (5th)	22.5 (29th)

Ohio State features a powerful offense, well-balanced between the rushing and passing games. Third-string QB Cardale Jones will be starting, but Jones has thrown for a combined 500 yards in the two games he started, the Big Ten Championship against Wisconsin and the Sugar Bowl against Alabama. Jones is a supported by RB Exekiel Elliott--who has rushed for 1,632 yards this season, good for 9^th in the country--and WR duo Devin Smith and Michael Thomas, who each have over 700 receiving yards this season.

The Ducks' defense doesn't look that good statistically; they're in the bottom half of the FBS in terms of total yards allowed, though they do only allow 22.5 points per game. What accounts for this difference? Forcing turnovers. DB Erick Dargan has single-handedly pulled in seven interceptions this season, and the Ducks' turnover margin sits at a nationwide best of +20. Oregon padded their numbers during the Rose Bowl, capitalizing on five Florida State turnovers, including this hilarious fumble by QB Jameis Winston under pressure:

That moment when your fumble is so ridiculous the ref falls over out of sheer surprise.

Oregon Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

	Ohio State Allows	Oregon Gains
Total Yards	328 (15th)	553 (3rd)
Rushing Yards	140 (33rd)	242 (18th)
Passing Yards	188 (17th)	311 (11th)
Points	21.2 (23rd)	47.2 (2nd)

Oregon's high-speed offense is led by Heisman-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has accounted for 4,852 yards of offense, including a 3^rd-best 4,121 yards through the air, and 55 touchdowns. RB Royce Freeman has 1,343 rushing yards, and WR Byron Marshall has 834 receiving yards on the season. However, the Ducks' second and third most prolific receivers will be out for the championship game; Darren Carrington was suspended after testing positive for marijuana, and Devon Allen suffered a knee injury during the Rose Bowl.

The Buckeyes' powerful defense, ranking in the Top 25 for both points and total yards allowed per game, looks up to the task of taking on Oregon's offense. DL Joey Bosa is 5^th in the nation in sacks, and DB Vonn Bell and CB Doran Grant have combined for 11 interceptions. The Buckeyes' turnover margin is not as good as Oregon's, but still sits at a respectable +10.

Prediction Time

Joey Bosa doesn't know, and neither do I.

The Math is picking the Buckeyes, largely based on their strength of schedule, but I'm not so sure. Was the Buckeyes' schedule really that much better than the Ducks'?

They say that defense wins championships, and it's hard to imagine the Ohio State D will be as gassed at the end of this game as the Seminoles were at the end of the Rose Bowl. But Ohio State will not be the best defense Oregon has faced; both Stanford and Michigan State were better statistically, and the Ducks handily topped both.

Speaking of Michigan State, the Spartans are the one common opponent between Ohio State and Oregon. (Fun fact: The only two teams that Sparty lost to this season are now facing each other in the National Championship.) But Oregon's 19-point victory in Eugene looks just as impressive as OSU's 12-point victory in East Lansing.

Two things do seem clear. First, after Oregon capitalized on five Seminole turnovers in the Rose Bowl and after Ohio State's interception on Blake Sims's Hail Mary sealed the Buckeyes' victory in the Sugar Bowl, winning the turnover battle will be key to winning the Championship Game. Second, the game will be fun as hell to watch.

I don't know who will win, so I'm just going to go with the Math on this one: The Buckeyes surprise the oddsmakers in Vegas and win the first ever College Football Playoff in a close-fought game.

Line: Ohio State by 10.5