Sunday, October 18, 2015

Beaked to Death by a Black Swan: Thoughts on the UM-MSU Game

If it wasn't obvious from my nom de plume, I'm a Michigan fan. After yesterday's loss to Michigan State, I need some catharsis. Humor me.

To describe how ridiculous the ending of that game was, consider these two facts: First, prior to the last play of the game, ESPN gave MSU a 0.2% chance of winning the game. Second, State literally did not lead until there were zero seconds left on the clock. A football game hasn't had that crazy of an ending since the Rutgers QB spiked the ball on fourth down in Michigan State's last game.

Let's start with the last play. Michigan's Aussie punter Blake O'Neill bobbles the snap and attempts the kick as he's swarmed by a phalanx of Spartans. O'Neill deserves some blame for not simply covering the ball at that point. Instead, State's Jalen Watts-Jackson ends up recovering the ball and returning it for a touchdown.

Public service announcement to all the haters making death threats and other inappropriate comments online: Never mind the fact that you're forgetting all of Blake's other terrific punts this season where he pinned our opponents within their 10-yard lines. Blake is a young man who made a mistake, a mistake nowhere near as bad as other young men make, a mistake I'm sure a Harbaugh-coached Michigan Man feels keenly. You, on the other hand, are not a Michigan Man or Michigan Woman, you are behaving despicably and need to slink back into whatever hole you just crawled out of.

Blake, if by some chance you are reading this, yes, you made a mistake. Real Michigan fans understand that. It's how you respond that matters. Own it, rise above the bullshit, learn from this episode, become a better player and person for it, and you will always be our space emperor.

There's plenty of blame to go around on that last play anyway. The long snapper sent the ball too low, and Michigan's line raced downfield instead of protecting the punter and the ball, a thing of paramount importance at that point in the game, especially since State rushed all 11 men at the line.

The call, however, was the right one. 999 times out of 1000, O'Neill booms that punt downfield, and the worst case reasonably expected is that Connor Cook has six seconds to advance the football eighty yards. He succeeds perhaps one time out of 999. Is it comforting to know that in the grand multiverse, Michigan wins this game in 99.8% of the universes substantially like ours? Or is it depressing to be fated to live in this one?


It should be said too that, though this game hinged on the results of a single play, there are multiple plays where that's true. Consider the three plays preceding the failed punt; a first down on any one of them would've iced the game. Consider what happens if Jake Rudock completes that long, second-down pass to Jehu Chesson earlier in the game instead of going three and out. Or if Delano Hill doesn't lose track of Trevon Pendleton for a 74-yard reception. Or if Joe Bolden doesn't get ejected for a bullshit targeting penalty on a drive that ended in an MSU touchdown. If any of those goes Michigan's way, the Wolverines win the game.

But instead, Michigan State wins another game in less than convincing fashion. You may enjoy the victory, Sparty, but don't get too cocky. You are at best Florida State in 2014 or Notre Dame in 2012: Lucky enough to contend for the National Championship, but not good enough to win it.

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